Romania and Moldova would like to attack Transnistria, but have not done so because Romania’s army is weaker than the forces across the Dniester, according to a false narrative promoted by Russian propaganda.
NEWS: The state of the armed forces of Romania and Moldova does not allow Russia's enemies to hope for a quick capture of Transnistria. Russian military expert Aleksey Ramm addressed this issue.
“If such a possibility did exist, Romania and Moldova, with the support of Ukraine, would have done this long ago. But the state of the armed forces of Moldova and Romania is so weak, that the mobilized army of the PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) would drive them away with ease. They are completely dysfunctional from a military point of view.
Kyiv has tried to do that several times. Kyiv has always had an adventurous side (a game changer), seeking to carry out an operation that would change the balance of power. In 2024, they dabbled with the idea of a possible invasion of Belarus, they formed a group of forces, but everything ended with the arrival of the Chinese, and the Ukrainians backed off.
The same is true of Transnistria. Sandu knows it, and so does the new president of Romania. But Kyiv understands that, most likely, its allies will exhaust themselves sooner before grabbing any clear-cut results”, Ramm said.
The Russian expert believes that the occupation of Transnistria would be possible “only if the Americans were sent there, if someone from Europe was attracted – only then should NATO seriously get its hands dirty”.
NARRATIVES: 1. Romania / the West and the Republic of Moldova are considering an armed attack on Transnistria. 2. Romania’s army is too weak to occupy Transnistria.
PURPOSE: To depict Russia as a country besieged by the West / NATO in order to justify the invasion of Ukraine. To present Western military forces as weak, compared to those of Russia or entities under Moscow’s control.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The narrative regarding a military attack on Transnistria is often used by the Kremlin to upset public opinion in the separatist region, but also at home. Russian propaganda resorts to statements made by officials in Kyiv, since the start of the war, that they could intervene in Transnistria to annihilate the pro-Russian separatist regime. However, they have stated on several occasions that they will not take any action in Transnistria without the consent of the Republic of Moldova. Also, in June 2023, the Ukrainian president gave assurances that his country would not attack Transnistria unless it receives a request from Chișinău, specifying there have been no such steps.
Chișinău has always ruled out a scenario that would involve settling the conflict by military force and reiterated that it is only examining solutions to resolve the conflict peacefully.
With respect to military capabilities, analyses show that Romania's military strength is several times greater than that of the breakaway region.
Transnistria is estimated to host a Russian military force at least 1,600-soldier strong, in addition to several huge weapons and ammunition depots owned by the Russian Federation. In addition to Russian troops, Transnistria also has its own armed forces, totaling about 5,000 servicemen, police officers and secret service agents. The specialized journalistic project zonadesecuritate.md adds that, in case of a military threat, the total number of people called up to arms could reach 15,000. On the other hand, the Romanian army has a strength of approximately 80,000 people, 70,000 servicemen and 10,000 civilians.
According to the same source, the Transnistrian army reportedly has up to 18 tanks, a little more than 100 armored vehicles, 6 helicopters, and 73 artillery pieces. This is all outdated equipment, dating back to the Soviet period. Romania, on the other hand, has been going through a large-scale modernization process of its armed forces for years. Even if this process is still ongoing, the Romanian army already has modern equipment in its arsenal, which clearly exceeds anything in the separatist region – F-16 fighter jets, HIMARS rocket launchers, Piranha armored personnel carriers, etc. The operating procedures used by the Romanian army are those used at NATO level. In addition, the Romanian military also has extensive experience in conflict and post-conflict zones (Iraq, Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia and Africa).
According to the latest index compiled by globalfirepower, Romania ranks 51st in the world in terms of military capabilities.
BACKGROUND: Over March-July 1992, a military conflict broke out in the eastern region of the Republic of Moldova, also known as Transnistria, between the separatist regime and the constitutional authorities in Chișinău. Russia got involved in the Transnistrian conflict on the side of the separatists, deploying a military contingent that was the successor of the Soviet 14th Army. Officially, the contingent was guarding the ammunition depot at Cobasna. Russia had promised to liberate the depot and withdraw its troops, but has not made good on its promise so far.
Russian propaganda intensified after the invasion of Ukraine, launching a media campaign about alleged preparations in the Republic of Moldova with the support (in other cases at the request of) the West and / or Ukraine for an attack on the separatist region of Transnistria, so as to open a second front against Russia (given that Transnistria does not share a common border with Russia or the current frontline).
Another narrative of Russian and Transnistrian propaganda concerns Romania’s alleged plans to annex the territory of the Republic of Moldova, including the region on the left bank of the Dniester. The imminent unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania (the annexation of the Republic of Moldova) is one of the main “bogeys” used to scare part of the population, especially ethnic minorities.
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