DISINFORMATION: The number of Moldovans siding with Russia in the war in Ukraine is growing

NARRATIVE: The number of Moldovans siding with Russia in the war in Ukraine is growing

BACKGROUND: Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Republic of Moldova has been considered the most vulnerable country in the region and the next target for Russia should the Ukrainian army be defeated. The armed forces of the Republic of Moldova are virtually inexistent. Besides, the country faces a separatist conflict in the east, in Transnistria, a region controlled by a pro-Moscow regime which also hosts Russian troops and a Soviet-era munition depot.

International warnings regarding Moscow’s plans to destabilize the Republic of Moldova, a country with a pro-European administration at present, intensified after Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced in Brussels that his country’s secret services have intercepted information about such pans.

Shortly afterwards, the Moldovan Presidency and the Moldovan Intelligence and Security officially confirmed they are aware of such a plan.  The White House described as “deeply disturbing” the information according to which Russia is planning the destabilize the internal political context in the Republic of Moldova. Washington accused Russia of trying to destabilize the Republic of Moldova. On March 14, the European Parliament also debated the latest developments in the Republic of Moldova and the challenges which Moldovan authorities need to address today.

Chișinău says that, right now, the Republic of Moldova doesn’t face a military threat, although it is the target of a Russian hybrid war. The Republic of Moldova is extremely exposed to Russian propaganda, according to a number of national and international studies and reports. The most susceptible category of the citizens are Russian-speaking national minorities, accounting for approximately 20% of the population, in addition to elderly people and parishioners of the Moldovan Orthodox Church, which is part of the Russian Patriarchate.

On Marcy 9, WatchDog Moldova made public a survey, which also included a number of questions concerning the impact of disinformation and propaganda on public opinion in the Republic of Moldova. The findings of this survey were misrepresented and quoted out of context by Politnavigator.

PURPOSE: To present the population of the Republic of Moldova as increasingly supportive of the Russian Federation and hostile to the European track promoted by the authorities. To convince Russian-speaking audiences that Russia is no longer isolated at international level due to the war in Ukraine, and is securing support and sympathy from a growing number of countries.

WHY THE NARRATIVE IS FALSE: The Russian publication makes manipulative and selective use of the results of the survey. Some of the figures presented in the article are inaccurate, others are compared to data presented in a previous survey, while any results pointing to attitudes of Moldovan citizens other which are inconsistent with what the authors of the article are trying to promote are kept hidden.

The claim that “only” 29.6% of the population of the Republic of Moldova would support NATO accession, while 56% is against, is accurate. However, the authors of the article, who often compare the findings of the survey with a previous a previous one conducted in January, don’t do the same in this case. This is most likely because in January “only” 26.9% would have voted for NATO accession.

The survey also shows that 63.3% of respondents believe Maia Sandu should go to Moscow to negotiate gas prices, and not 67.2% as Politnavigator claims.

At the same time, according to a similar survey carried out by WatchDog in May 2022, 25% of respondents held Putin personally accountable for the start of the war in Ukraine, compared to 21% at present. Conversely, the number of people blaming Russia has gone up from 14.7% to 19.5%. The number of Moldovan citizens who blame the USA and NATO has stayed the same, which contradicts the data presented by Politnavigator.

The authors of the article omit the fact that Vladimir Putin’s approval rating among Moldovan citizens has dropped from 38% in January to 33.8% in March. Moreover, Putin dropped from 1^st to 5^th place in terms of support for international leaders. The article also disregards the fact that 78.4% of interviewees disagree with support their country should provide to Russia in exchange for lower gas prices, although the majority of Moldovan citizens were affected by the energy price hikes. 37.7% of respondents side with Ukraine in this war and nearly half this figure with Russia – 18.3%. The survey also reveals that over half of Moldovan citizens would support the EU accession of their country, while a little more than 20% would vote in favor of Moldova joining the Eurasian Union. Public support for Russia has plummeted, standing at 47%, compared to other international organizations and countries such as Germany (76%), Romania (74%) or France (71.5%).

“The survey included numerous questions that aim to assess the impact of disinformation and propaganda on public opinion in the Republic of Moldova. Specifically, we can notice the impact of Kremlin propaganda remains high in connection to topics pertaining to national security, the Russian aggression in Ukraine, international relations and energy-related issues. Compared to the previous survey, we can notice slight improvements in many areas related to disinformation campaigns. Therefore, the number of citizens who believed the Republic of Moldova should support the Russian aggression of Ukraine in exchange for cheaper gas prices has dropped from 14% to 11%. At the same time, despite heated debates in the last month, the number of people who believe the Russian Federation poses a threat to our country increased only by 1% (from 41% to 42%)”, the authors of the study note.

GRAIN OF TRUTH: A significant number of Moldovan citizens side with Russia in the war in Ukraine, although their exact number is hard to estimate, also because the results of the elections in the Republic of Moldova have proved that pre-election polls have a large margin for error, which reduces their credibility.