DISINFORMATION: The accession of Ukraine and Moldova will ruin the EU

NARRATIVES: 1. The European Union will not be able to integrate Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova and risks collapsing. 2. The EU accession of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova will cost Member States dearly, particularly those in Eastern Europe. 3. EU accession is not a viable long-term solution, because the EU’s funds will eventually deplete.

BACKGROUND: On November 8, the European Commission recommended the European Council should start accession negotiations with Ukraine and the Republic Moldova “in light of the results achieved by Ukraine and Moldova and of the ongoing reform efforts”. The two states, in addition to Georgia, submitted their EU accession requests in March 2022, shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In June 2022, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova were granted EU candidate status, pledging to fulfill a long set of prerequisites, most of which are linked with reforming the judiciary and combating corruption.

Providing EU candidate status to the two countries, Ukraine in particular, sparked criticism, including at EU level, some voices saying the process and procedures were artificially rushed only due to the war. Hungary, a country that voiced disgruntlement with the way Ukrainian authorities treat the Hungarian minority, but which in recent years turned out to align itself to Russia’s interests under Viktor Orban’s regime, threatens to veto the start of accession talks with Kyiv.

PURPOSE: To amplify pressure against EU enlargement at the level of EU member states, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe. To depict the EU in Russia as an amorphous, weak structure ready to come apart at the first challenge, incapable of ensuring long-term prosperity and development to newer members.

WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The start of accession talks is not tantamount to immediate and unconditional EU accession. The accession process is long and complex. On the one hand, it entails aligning national legislation to European law, in addition to comprehensive institutional reforms. On the other hand, the start of negotiation talks coincides with each candidate country making efforts to bridge economic gaps compared to other European Union member states, as candidates are allowed to access a number of funds and lines of financing. Once these countries are admitted into the European Union, the funds they can access to develop local economies are more significant, but that doesn’t mean their budget will be guaranteed by Brussels. EU structures are only there to provide assistance (which must also be provided to all the other members of the EU). Fulfilling EU accession criteria (which basically means closing EU accession chapters) means these countries will have to function by the same rules and principles as other developed liberal democracies across the EU, which boosts the development of local economic operators as well as attracts foreign investors who will no longer have reason to believe their investments will be lost in the impoverished “Wild East”.

It is also worth noting that the European Union budget, which will also be used to deliver funds to the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, is built based on the principle that “spending should not exceed revenues”. Therefore, the funds addressing the three countries could not possibly ruin Europe. The EU budget is built on multiple sources of revenue (for instance, customs duties). Part of these funds are contributions from EU members, while developed economies contribute more and smaller economies receive more. Germany, the EU’s powerhouse economy, contributed less than 46 billion EUR to the EU budget in 2022, of which 14 billion was returned to the German state budget in the form of European funds, which means Germany contributed approximately 22 billion EUR to the EU budget. This is an insignificant amount, accounting for less than 1% of Germany’s GDP in 2022, which stood at nearly 3,900 billion EUR.

Obviously, in the current context, war-torn Ukraine will require considerable efforts to reconstruct the country, which is not something that can be achieved overnight and solely with EU funds. This is a separate matter which will most likely involve several international donors, including the United States.

The biggest wave of EU enlargement was achieved in 2004, when 10 new states were admitted into the community bloc, of which 8 from the former USSR, including large economies such as Poland and Hungary. Back then, the EU economy survived, as did the single European currency, despite concerns that assimilating too large a number of states might lead to the collapse of the EU.

GRAIN OF TRUTH: The accession of Ukraine will particularly entail additional efforts from the other member states in order to safeguard Kyiv’s economic balance. However, Kyiv will start accession talks only in December, provided the European Council approves the Commission’s recommendations.