DISINFORMATION: Russia will be forced to resort to nuclear weapons

NARRATIVES: 1. Russia will be forced to use its nuclear arsenal, having used up all other alternatives. 2. Russia is actually fighting NATO in Ukraine. 3. Russia is waging a pre-emptive, defensive war against NATO’s aggressions.

BACKGROUND: Ever since the start of the war, Vladimir Putin suggested he might resort to nuclear weapons if any foreign power will intervene on the side of Ukraine, and has put its strategic forces on alert. Later, a number of Russian officials refused to explicitly rule out the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons, stating only that the conditions that require the use of strategic weapons are stipulated in the military doctrine of the country. While Russian officials preferred ambiguity, the state televisions and their guests did not refrain from openly talking about the imminence of nuclear warfare.

United Russia deputy, Evgeny Popov, was a guest on the “60 minutes” show on Rossiya-1, hosted by Olga Skabeyeva on April 27:

“We are talking about Sarmat missiles… The question is: can they stop them? This missile cannot be intercepted! Their capabilities are limited. They say they can shoot them down. We will see!”

Olga Skabeyeva: “From Kaliningrad, a Sarmat [missile] needs 106 seconds to reach Berlin. To hit Paris, 200 seconds. You were mentioning London…202 seconds.”

On the same evening, Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of Russia Today, featured on the show hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, one of the most vocal propaganda journalists. Symonyan argued that, between losing the war in Ukraine and launching a new World War, Russia has no choice:

“I believe the Third World War is the real option. Knowing us, knowing our leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, the hard-to-accept ending that it will all come down to a nuclear strike seems to me far more reasonable than any other outcome. On the one hand, it terrifies me, but on the other hand I think…this is it!”

Additionally, another well-established Kremlin propagandist, Dmitry Kiselyov, talked about the devastating effects that a nuclear missile launched from Russia on the United Kingdom would have in one of the news segments on Rossiya-1. He argued that the United Kingdom would be wiped out by a devastating tsunami.

Sorin Roșca Stănescu, a journalist and former politician who served time after being handed a sentence for “setting up an organized crime group”, among other offenses, is frequently promoting false narratives that are similar or identical to Russian propaganda.

PURPOSE: To intimidate the West in order to determine it to stop providing weapons to Ukraine, considering that Western deliveries of weapons have been pivotal in helping Kyiv achieve remarkable results on the battlefield. To demoralize and intimidate the Ukrainian army. To promote the myth of Russian military might for the public at home.

WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: In the speech he held in the Red Square in Moscow, Russian president Vladimir Putin did not say anything about World War III, as the author of the article, Sorin Roșca Stănescu, claims.

The probability of using nuclear weapons is extremely low, since even the detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon, with a reduced impact, will exponentially increase the risk of nuclear warfare. Just like during the Cold War, no party is interested in triggering a nuclear war, as this would involve the mutual destruction of belligerent parties. Irrespective of how far any of the two sides is willing to go to destroy the other’s nuclear arsenal, there would still be enough missiles left that won’t be stopped (for instance, missiles currently equipped in nuclear submarines). Moreover, the global-level destruction would be so extensive, that even third parties – countries such as China – are directly invested to avoid this scenario at any cost.

On Tuesday, the Director of the US National Intelligence Avril Haines, said Putin might be tempted to use nuclear weapons only when he sees an existential threat to his regime.

“We do think that [Putin’s perception of an existential threat] could be the case in the event that he perceives that he is losing the war in Ukraine, and that NATO in effect is either intervening or about to intervene in that context”, the head of the US National Intelligence said.

The US official went on to say that there will probably be a warning about the imminence of using nuclear weapons.

“There are a lot of things that he would do in the context of escalation before he would get to nuclear weapons”, Haines said.

A similar message was conveyed on the same day by the Russian deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko, quoted by Reuters, namely that Russia could use nuclear weapons only if it faces an existential threat from conventional weapons, or if weapons of mass destruction are used against the Russian Federation.

Additionally, Russia is not fighting NATO in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian army. The latter is provided with weapons by the international community to be able to defend its territory against the current Russian invasion, not to attack Russia.

GRAIN OF TRUTH: It is possible Russia might plan to use nuclear weapons under certain circumstances.