The anti-government protests organized daily, since September 18, by the Shor Party in Chisinau, turned increasingly slow during the month of October, to eventual stop all together not long ago. Now, Moscow is trying to expand its “cooperation” with pro-Russian political forces other than this party that it seems to have bet on at the beginning of autumn.
The protests staged by the Shor Party were meant to eventually trigger early elections…
On September 18, the Shor Party launched a protest action against President Maia Sandu and the Action and Solidarity Party, which holds the majority in parliament, demanding the resignation of the head of state, the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of early elections. According to the organizers, the protest was to become “a permanent one” and grow by the day.
Shortly before starting this action against the pro-European power in Chisinau, the leader of the Shor Party, Ilan Shor, said that the protest would turn national and that “the people of the Republic of Moldova will demand early elections”. “We will take to the streets until we get victorious. Maia Sandu no longer represents the people and must leave, immediately”, Ilan Shor claimed in an online intervention at that rally.
Ilan Shor takes part in the rallies that he organizes exclusively online, as he left the Republic of Moldova in the summer of 2019, when the political regime controlled by another oligarch, Vladimir Plahotniuc, collapsed. Since then, he has been in Israel, from where he remotely leads the party that bears his name and that holds six seats out of 101 in the Chisinau Parliament.
In an appeal to the Moldovan citizens, urging them to go out and take part in the non-stop rally that would begin on September 18, Ilan Shor stated that “the Republic of Moldova needs a government capable of negotiating and solving the most important problem of the moment – ensuring the country’s natural gas supply”.
“Many are wondering why they should go out and protest on September 18. This protest aims to trigger early elections, so that a new government, able to come to an understanding with Moscow regarding the delivery of gas, at reasonable prices, comes to power. This issue is vital because the price of gas also directly influences food prices. At the September 18 protest, we will not be marching against anyone, we will be marching for a new life, for us to be able to buy gas at affordable prices”, Ilan Shor said.
He called on all the political forces in the Republic of Moldova to present a common front against the current government.
…but they were not even supported by all pro-Russian parties
The opposition parties, even pro-Russian ones like the Party of Socialists, were slow to respond to his call to join the protests. Only the Communists, who in Parliament form an alliance with the Socialists, and representatives of two other, almost non-existent, parties, joined the protesters.
Starting September 18, a string of demonstrations took place, especially on Sundays. The protesters, from a few dozen to a few hundred people, also set up permanent tents in front of the Parliament building. This was probably meant give the action a non-stop character.
Despite the intention to turn these protests into a large national assembly, the organizers failed to gather more than approximately 6.5 thousand demonstrators at one rally, according to the police. They tried several times to push it and block traffic on Ștefan cel Mare și Sfânt boulevard, the main artery of Chişinău, but were stopped by law enforcement people.
In general, the protests were characterized by a whole series of clashes between the police and the demonstrators. Some of them got arrested for outrage and violation of public order.
The last attempt by supporters of the Shor Party to block Ștefan cel Mare boulevard and set up tents on the road took place on October 16. However, the police prevented them from doing so, accusing them of violating the existing protest laws and confiscating their tents and the personal belongings inside them.
Later, law enforcement announced that they found firearms and white weapons, metal crowbars, firecrackers and smoke bombs among the seized items. They accused the protesters of staging provocations to destabilize the situation in the Republic of Moldova.
In turn, the protesters accused the authorities of violating their constitutional right to protest and freedom of speech.
The protests have been halted, and the Shor Party has not announced whether it will resume them or not.
Maia Sandu remains the most popular politician in the Republic of Moldova
The attempt of the Shor Party to trigger large-scale anti-government rallies that would lead to the ousting of the current pro-European power seems to have failed.
There are several potential reasons for that, from the change in the geopolitical situation to the reduced popularity of Ilan Shor.
First of all, during these protests, the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, announced the partial mobilization, a measure apparently unpopular not only in Russia, but even among many citizens of ex-Soviet states, including the Republic of Moldova, however nostalgic for the USSR. There is also a sufficiently large number of Moldovan citizens who have relatives settled in Russia. These relatives are now at risk of being sent or have already been sent to fight on the front in Ukraine. The mobilization announced by Putin has probably made many of those otherwise friendly to Russia, if not revise their views, at least ask themselves certain questions about the war started by Moscow and start looking for answers.
Another explanation for the fact that the protests did not take off, and perhaps the most important, is that Maia Sandu remains the most popular politician in the Republic of Moldova, despite the multiple crises and price increases over the last year.
A survey conducted by CBS Research, in collaboration with ISPRI “Ion Brătianu” and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, made public on October 9, shows that, in the event of a presidential election, more than 34% of respondents would vote for Maia Sandu. Next would come the honorary president of the Socialist Party, Igor Dodon, with approximately 19%, and the mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, with 7%. Ilan Shor is only in fourth place, with just over 6%.
At this point, we should recall that Ilan Shor is the main suspect in the case of the theft of at least 1.5 billion dollars from the Moldovan banking system in 2014. He was sentenced in the first instance to seven years and six months in prison, but he did not end up in detention, as his case has been under appeal for more than six years. Political analysts note that Ilan Shor was previously used as a tool of political influence by Vladimir Plahotniuc - who is currently also a fugitive - at the time when he controlled the Republic of Moldova.
Are the Socialists winning back Moscow’s favor?
Just a week before the protests started in September, a mixed delegation of Shor Party and Party of Communists deputies went to Moscow, where they met with the chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs, Leonid Slutsky. Later he had a meeting, online of course, with Ilan Shor and told him that, recently, Russia had not had reliable partners in the Republic of Moldova, emphasizing that Ilan Shor and his party could become that partner.
It is difficult to say whether Moscow’s offer remains valid after the failure of the protests launched by Ilan Shor. It is certain, however, that between October 17 and 19, the delegation of another party, that of the Socialists, met in Moscow with the representatives of the parties in power in the Moscow State Duma – United Russia and Right Russia.
The executive secretary of the Party of Socialists, Vlad Bătrîncea, who was part of the delegation, like the representatives of the Shor Party a few weeks ago, requested the authorities of the Russian Federation to review the price of gas delivered to the Republic of Moldova. Also, both the representatives of the Socialists and those of the State Duma emphasized how important it was for current power to observe the constitutional status of neutrality of the Republic of Moldova, an older chorus by which Moscow seems to actually try to block the modernization of the army and the strengthening of the Republic of Moldova’s security.
We can assume that the visit the Socialists paid to Moscow represents yet another attempt by Russia to expand the number of “reliable partners” it has in Chisinau. The Socialists used to be in Moscow's good graces, especially during the period when Igor Dodon was president of the Republic of Moldova, but Russia seems to have been disappointed by their performance, after they lost power, leaving the pro-European forces led by Maia Sandu to take over the leadership of the state.Of course, the Socialists, just like Ilan Shor, and the Communists, want to grab power back at any cost, because the leaders of these three parties have serious integrity issues and are being prosecuted for several charges - from embezzlement of public funds to treason. They probably hope that a return to power would allow them to influence justice and escape detention. And who else could help them come back but Russia?
Gas remains Moscow’s most powerful weapon in the Republic of Moldova
So, what the Shor Party intended as a large-scale non-stop protest action turned out to be a fiasco in the end. Of course, there will still be anti-government demonstrations by the pro-Russian opposition in Chisinau, but they will be sporadic. Russia will probably try to expand its influence in the Republic of Moldova also through these parties, in order to put pressure on the current pro-European power. However, Moscow's most effective tool – and one it seems ready to use – is the energy weapon. The authorities in Chisinau have already expressed their fear that Moscow could stop supplying gas to the Republic of Moldova, leaving it without energy resources on the eve of winter, since electricity is also produced with the help of gas. The Moldovan government already buys part of the electricity it needs from Romania, wherefrom it could also procure gas.
Under these circumstances, the authorities of the Republic of Moldova have prepared an important gas and electricity compensation system that Moldovan citizens will benefit from in the cold season, especially those with low incomes, which in fact is the social category that includes most of the supporters of the Short Party, the Party of Socialists and the Party of Communists.
