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In recent years, the Sahel has been one of Africa’s most volatile regions. Jihadi groups, usually affiliated with the Islamic State or the Al Qaeda network, are engaged in campaigns against governments in the region. The diminishing of water resources is fueling conflicts between farmers and shepherds. Security and economic issues have also turned the region into a source of migration to the West. Against this background, the region has been marked by a series of military coups. Most of the regime changes have been accompanied by the emergence in the respective countries of mercenaries from the Wagner group and a rapprochement with Russia, which opened a new front against the West in the Sahel. The latest country that appears to be leaning towards Moscow is the US's main regional partner, Niger
The Wagner mercenaries, the army used by Russia to expand its influence in Africa
It is no longer a secret for anyone that Africa has always been a battleground for the great powers. I wouldn’t dwell too much on history, but I want to recall the Cold War era and the competition between the USA and the USSR. A rivalry that lasted for decades, until recently, when China became a major player on the continent.
The coup d'état in Niger brings Africa back into the world spotlight and along with it this confrontation between Washington and Moscow in the Sahel region, especially since the Wagner Group has become part of the equation. The war in Ukraine brought to the fore this paramilitary group created in the Kremlin’s laboratories, along with other private armies, as Russia aims to project its power globally. Such groups created by Moscow vary in size and mode of operation, but by far the most prominent is the Wagner Group.
Russia tested for the first time the so-called private military companies in Syria in 2013. The Wagner Group would emerge as an entity the following year, 2014, when the Russians occupied Crimea, and after that it was used in the Russian operations in the Donbas , where it was allegedly involved in assassinations. A US congressional report shows that Wagner’s early activity was carried out under the direct supervision of the Russian military services. In 2015, when the Wagner fighters were still participating in operations in eastern Ukraine, the group began to be increasingly involved in the Syrian civil war as well. By the end of the decade, Wagner had expanded into Africa, including Libya, Mozambique, Sudan, Central Africa, and Mali. Mercenaries provided security services for dignitaries, were also involved in the private sector and in some cases in mining operations in certain regions.
Let us recall that, in the last three years, coups have overthrown the powers in Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad and caused a civil war in Sudan. All these upheavals have led to an increase in the Russian presence in the Sahel region.
Niger, the US’s most important partner in the Sahel
The first three countries mentioned are neighbors of Niger, an important regional pillar, where the Americans have invested about $500 million over the past decade to train and equip the Nigerian military to fight militant organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In addition, the Americans have more than 1,000 troops in Niger and have built a large drone base in the north of the country, used to monitor cross-border movements of armed groups and gather intelligence.
In March, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Niamey that “Niger is really an extraordinary model at a time of great challenge – a model of resilience, a model of democracy, a model of cooperation.” But now, after the July 26 coup, Washington's relationship with Niamey appears to be collapsing. Before the coup, Niger was enjoying unprecedented attention from the West, as for the first time in the last 70 years, a peaceful and democratic transfer of power had taken place in Niamey 2 years before. Antony Blinken's trip this spring was designed to reaffirm American support for Niger and its president, Mohamed Bazoum.
The recipe for the Russian infiltration in Africa: exploit weaknesses and resentments towards the West
Beyond all this, what does the Russian involvement or rather Russian infiltration look like in a country considered by America, until July 26, as its most important ally in the Sahel region?! The Wagner Group is not subtle enough to generate in society ideas against the free world, with or without Prigozhin. So what then? Putin's Russia is built on speculating the weaknesses of its targets, be they the Balkans, Europe or Africa. In the case of Niger, resentment against the former colonial power, France, was exploited. Until the coup d'état, there were occasional street demonstrations organized by civil society or trade unions calling for the withdrawal of the French army from Niger. Last year, when everything seemed to be on a normal democratic path, an umbrella civil society organization appeared in the civil landscape of Niamey.
M62 spearheads the propagation of anti-French sentiments and the idea that the Russian military support, through the Wagner Group, can help Niger in its fight against terrorism. As a matter of fact, more than just a few members of this movement make no secret of their desire to see Niger establish relations with the "Wagneriots". Immediately after the coup, M62 organized a march in the city of Agadez, home to one of the US drone air bases, condemning the West African alliance ECOWAS, France and the Western intervention in Niger. The location was not set by chance. Because while the capital has been the center of democratic opposition in recent years, in cities like Agadez the frustration with unfulfilled promises regarding economic stability under democratic conditions have generated tensions and fertilized the ground of pro-Russianism and anti-Westernism preached by the so-called civic movements in that country. It should also be noted that at the demonstrations that preceded the coup d'état and, especially, during those held afterward, Russian flags were waved.
The pro-Russian movement can also be found among politicians. Abdourahmane Oumarou, the leader of the Union of Pan-African Patriots (UNPP-Incin Africa), a journalist stranded in the last legislature, who in the presidential election 3 years ago won 0.43 percent of the vote, ranking 20th out of 30, travels frequently to Russia. In Moscow, he always has arranged meetings with various people with influence in the Kremlin circle of power. And he's not the only one. A second one, the president of an obscure party, had been arrested for collaborating with a foreign power to destabilize Niger. All information from journalists in the area leads to Russia. Moreover, there is evidence that the man did not do it for free.
Another little party, UMOJA, has the same pro-Russian speech. Perhaps if France had succeeded in stopping the spread of jihadist terrorism in the Sahel region, the pro-Russian populist discourse would not have made its way. It is certain that Nigerians already see with good eyes the presence of Russians in the neighboring country of Mali. Propaganda does its job and the propaganda says that the Russians, through organizations like the Wagner Group, are much more effective in the fight against terrorism. No mention of the many controversies surrounding the mercenary group or their crimes – for example the massacre commited by “wagneriots” in the village of Moura in Mali , where 500 people were killed, others were tortured and countless rapes were recorded.
The Russians have not won Niger yet. Problems generated by Prigozhin’s death
But the card has not been played in Niger yet. The Russians are not victorious. The rebellion and, now, the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin changes the data on the ground. Putin may not need him anymore, but the coup plotters in Niger seem quite confused by the new configuration, adding to which are the threats of the West African ECOWAS alliance, which has tried to negotiate with the military leaders that organized the coup, but has warned that is ready to deploy its soldiers to Niger to restore constitutional order. A document circulating on the internet is said to have suggested that ECOWAS had also set the "D-Day" of the attack.
In the chain of coups in the Sahel region, what is happening in Niger is different and that could make all the difference. While in Mali and the Central African Republic the junta requested the support of the Russians through the "Wagneriots" to ensure the security of the junta, in Niger the help of the Russians was requested to counter the international community's disapproval of the coup d'état.
Prigozhin’s death has thrown into disarray the junta led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, which ousted President Mohamed Bazoum from power last month. Discussions with the Wagner Group for military assistance in the event of a possible ECOWAS attack were well advanced. Prigozhin does not equal Wagner. It was an image used by Moscow and which it can be replaced at any time with anyone. And maybe the Russians really need at this time, at least in Africa, a leader with an erased profile. Because their interests on this continent, in this region do not change: blocking Western ambitions and approaches, gaining allies/partners – important in the context of Russia's isolation internationally – and, above all, access to natural resources
But this does not mean that Moscow is successful. A measure of the African interest in Russia is given by the significantly reduced attendance at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, which was taking place right against the background of the coup d'état in Niger.
