The Czech presidency seems poised for a major shakeup, as retired general Petr Pavel is preparing to take the office from Miloš Zeman. Unlike his predecessor, a pro-Russian and pro-Chinese politician with a knack for challenging the country’s Constitution and governments, Pavel is staunchly pro-Western and he vowed to cooperate with the equally pro-Western government. The president-elect also expressed his support for Ukraine, and caused a (for now) minor row with China.
Petr Pavel won the elections despite being cast as a warmonger by his tycoon opponent Andrej Babiš
The campaign that preceded the second round was extremely acrimonious and polarising. Babiš took advantage of the fact that a large part of society fears war and worked very aggressively with this topic. He said that he "wants peace", while billboards paid for by his campaign claimed that "the general does not believe in peace".
However, Andrej Babiš caused the biggest stir with his slogan "I will not drag the Czech Republic into the war. I am a diplomat. Not a soldier."
The effort to constantly label his opponent as someone who, if elected, would drag the Czech Republic into war undoubtedly worried some people, and Babiš's campaign style and his performance in TV debates were very confrontational. He repeatedly showed himself ready to use false claims: he kept referring to his opponent as a "government candidate", even though Petr Pavel was running as an independent thanks to the support of more than 80,000 citizens (while Babiš was nominated by signatures of MPs from his ANO movement).
In retrospect, it is clear that Babiš did not choose his central theme appropriately even from the perspective of his campaign. While he was stronger on the economy as a businessman and former prime minister and finance minister, Babiš could not compete with the former chairman of the NATO Military Committee on security. He also made big mistakes. Maybe the biggest one was his statement that if elected head of state he would not send Czech troops to defend an invaded Poland or the Baltics, which is absurd, as the Czech Republic is obliged to do so by NATO alliance agreements.
Although Babiš soon apologized for this stance and tried to blame it on a Czech Television presenter who was supposedly asking "hypothetical" questions, the statesmen of the countries concerned reacted to his words. Babiš's statement was put into perspective by Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský (Pirates), who said Babiš had damaged the Czech Republic abroad, and even by outgoing President Miloš Zeman at a meeting with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda.
The former prime minister has thus failed to make a convincing case in foreign and security policy. Although he claimed that he wanted peace, his proposals on how he wanted to achieve it were rather absurd. This alleged plan consisted of Babiš calling Macron, Macron calling Biden and Biden calling Putin. If this scenario were possible, it is not clear what the role of the President of the Czech Republic would actually be.
On the other hand, Pavel was able to argue shortly and clearly in this area.
A former member of the Communist party who became staunchly pro-Western
An interesting moment in the campaign was related to the communist past of both candidates. Both Babiš and Pavel joined the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia in the 1980s and both had successful careers – Babiš in foreign trade, Pavel in the army. And both had contact with secret services of that totalitarian regime. Babiš is registered as an agent of the StB secret police (he denies it), Pavel studied a course in military intelligence, which he completed after the Velvet Revolution.
Babiš also tried to attack his competitor in this area. "Putin was dropped off and deployed as a KGB agent in the 1980s in Berlin. This is what Mr. Pavel was being prepared for, to be planted in the enemy's rear to get people to cooperate" Babiš said, for example.
Overall, Babiš made a number of mistakes in the campaign that apparently cost him some of his support. In the end, he lost by a larger margin than expected: Pavel got 58.32 percent, Babiš 41.67 percent.
Babiš cannot be said to be pro-Russian, but rather, because of his populist politics, he is willing to claim basically anything, as this campaign has shown. In it, he tried to appeal to voters of the Communists or the radical SPD, which are probably the most pro-Russian forces in Czech politics.
For this reason, Petr Pavel's victory was hailed as a guarantee of the Czech Republic's anchoring in the NATO and the European Union.
Petr Pavel went into the elections with a clearly pro-Western agenda, surrounding himself with pro-Western-minded people, and this orientation is best evidenced by the first steps he took after his election.
From challenging China to shaking up the Czech presidential office
One of the first international calls that Pavel made after being elected was to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Pavel expressed his support and said he wanted to visit Kiev before taking office. The president-elect insists that the Czech Republic should continue to support Ukraine, including with arms supplies.
In addition, in an unprecedented move, Pavel spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. "I assured her that Taiwan and the Czech Republic share the values of freedom, democracy, and human rights. We agreed on strengthening our partnership," Pavel said.
China immediately protested strongly against the phone call at the Czech embassy in Beijing. "I understand that China has reservations about my call with Taiwan. But we are a sovereign country and we do what we think is right," the president-elect responded to this criticism.
The office of the Czech President is now facing a fundamental transformation in many ways. First and foremost, in terms of foreign policy - outgoing President Miloš Zeman was openly pro-Chinese, he defended this way the interests of business circles connected to his entourage as well. Until the outbreak of the war against Ukraine, he was also openly pro-Russian and was ready to question the position of the West or his own country in the interests of Russia (an example is the investigation into the Novichok case, where, in line with the Russian narrative, he asked Czech secret services to investigate whether the poison was produced in the Czech Republic. Similarly, he questioned the conclusions of the investigation into the Vrbětice ammunition depot explosions, which were most likely the work of Russian GRU agents).
At the same time, Zeman has been almost inactive in the field of diplomacy, especially in recent years. He has hardly met with Western statesmen at all. The first days after the election of Petr Pavel show that this is likely to change.
The style of governance of the Czech president is also likely to change. Prague Castle under Miloš Zeman was very closed, both informationally and physically. Zeman's spokesman does not answer questions from many media outlets, and the president's closest associates are more concerned with their own business (for which Prague Castle serves as a vehicle) than with the performance of their duties.
Pavel is also likely to be a much less confrontational president towards the government. As far as the current government of Petr Fiala is concerned, Pavel is much more in line with it than Zeman. But even in general terms, Pavel has made it clear that he is not going to test the limits of the Constitution, as Zeman did when he refused to appoint certain ministers or professors, for example.
Last but not least, Prague Castle is now apparently in for a big clean-up. The newly elected president thinks that the previous presidential team broke the law while in office.
"It is obvious that the Office of the President has long since failed to fulfil the purpose it was intended to serve, it has long since lost any self-reflection when it comes to transparency in the exercise of high state office. They have extensively carried out their own activities, often in a grey area, if not right outside the law," Pavel said in an interview with Prostor X.
"The reality I am now encountering - still in outline - is significantly worse than I imagined," he added.
