USA: the battle for the "swing" states. Campaign themes in the states that will decide the president

USA: the battle for the
© EPA-EFE/DEMETRIUS FREEMAN / POOL   |   Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump (L) and Democratic presidential candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris during a presidential debate hosted by ABC News at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA 10 September 2024.

The countdown to the US election has begun. Opinion polls say that the candidates are walking shoulder to shoulder, and both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are now focusing, in the last hundred meters, on the states that will ultimately make the difference on November 5.

"Blue wall" vs. "Red wall", electoral college, popular vote vs. electoral vote

Attention is now focused on the "blue wall," that is, the states won by the Democrats in every presidential election cycle from 1992 to 2012. There are 18 of them, plus the District of Columbia, and together they represent the largest number of Electoral College electors. Before understanding what an elector and the Electoral College are, naturally the question arises whether there is a "red wall" as well. Yes, there is! But the term is underused for the simple fact that states consistently won by Republicans have fewer votes in the Electoral College.

Americans do not elect their president and members of the legislature by direct vote. The election campaign starts one year before the vote and begins with the selection of candidates. There are many people who want to get to the White House, and everyone has their own ideas about how government should work. In order to make a selection and choose the best, the Democratic and Republican parties organize first the CAUCUS and then the PRIMARY ELECTIONS. In a Caucus, party members select the best candidates after several preliminary discussions, concluded by a vote. In the Primary Elections, party members choose the best candidate to represent them in the general election. But that does not automatically give them candidate status. The approval of the National Convention of each party is also needed. At the end of this Convention, in which delegations from all states participate, the candidate who enters the race for the White House is voted on.

When Americans go to the polls in November, they will choose their preferred presidential candidate and their running mate, the vice president. But they also choose the electors who are part of the  Electoral College.  And these voters are the ones who designate the president.

The system works like this. If a candidate gets a majority of the people’s votes in a state, then they get all the electoral votes in that state, and that is why the popular vote is important. There are only two exceptions to this rule, Maine and Nebraska, states that use the proportional system, dividing Electoral College votes based on how many votes each candidate receives.

Each state has a number of electors based on its population. California, which has a population of nearly 40 million, has 55 votes in the Electoral College, while North Dakota, with a population of 762,000, has just three votes. There are 538 electors in the Electoral College, and the candidate who is voted for by at least 270 of them becomes the President of the USA. If no candidate gets an absolute majority, then the House of Representatives elects the president.

Is it possible that, although a candidate is chosen as a result of the popular vote, the Electoral College will vote differently? Yes. And it has happened several times in US history, the last time being in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won almost three million more votes than Donald Trump, but eventually he was the one who won the presidency with 304 Electoral College votes, compared to the 227 that she got.

There is no constitutional provision or federal law requiring electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states, but in practice it has been extremely rare for any elector to vote otherwise. Moreover, 4 years ago, the US Supreme Court ruled that states can enact requirements on how electors vote.

If the popular vote doesn't matter, then why go to the polls, a European, for instance, would rightly wonder. Well, for the simple reason that through their vote, an American tells their state which candidate to vote for in the Electoral College.

The winner will be decided by the “swing” states. The issues that matter there: migration, abortion, minorities, inflation and the war in Gaza

We were talking in the beginning of the "blue wall", broken in 2016 by Donald Trump and regained 4 years ago by Joe Biden, of the "red wall" states, but what are the so-called "swing" states? As the name suggests, these are the US states where the vote can swing left or right in every election cycle. In other words, they are not traditionally Democratic or Republican states, and what's more, these "swing" states give the next president. They are also called "battlefield states". Why? Because the electoral battles, debates, rallies, are concentrated in these states. They are not fixed. This year the battle is for 7 states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 4 of them are part of the so-called "Sun Belt" which includes the southern states from one coast to the other.

For example, Arizona, has a population of 7.4 million inhabitants and according to the algorithm, has 11 of the 538 votes in the Electoral College. 4 years ago, Joe Biden won the US presidency with the votes of this state. As Arizona borders Mexico, the state's campaign themes have addressed immigration. Arizona also hosted a bitter election battle over access to abortion, after the Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban regarding termination of pregnancy. The issue became even more polarizing since 2022, when the US Supreme Court overturned a landmark ruling that had granted women the constitutional right to an abortion. We are talking about the  1973 Supreme Court decision in the Roe vs Wade case   , by which the highest court of the USA decided that Americans had the right to abortion.

With its 11 million inhabitants, the state of Georgia has 11 votes in the Electoral College. A third of Georgia's population is African-American, one of the highest proportions of black residents in the US, and this demographic is believed to have been decisive for Joe Biden 4 years ago. Let's not forget that a court in Georgia caused Donald Trump one of the 4 criminal trials in which he was accused of electoral fraud in 2021.

Michigan – also known as the Great Lakes State – has a population of 10 million and is home to  one of the largest Arab communities in the US.  4 years ago, Biden won the 15 electoral votes but this year, because of the White House's support for Israel after the start of the war in Gaza, the Democrats are at risk of losing the Michigan Arab votes, and this could affect the final vote count and tip the scales in Trump's favor.

Nevada has 6 electors out of 538. Although in the so-called silver state, the Democrats won the previous elections, now there are signals of the balance tilting towards the Republicans. Both candidates are fighting here for the vote of the Latin American population and Nevada is one of the states with a high unemployment rate: 5.1%.

North Carolina borders Georgia and shares some of its top electoral concerns, like Arizona, another Sun Belt state. North Carolina has 16 electors and the state was won by Donald Trump in 2020. It is considered a "purple" state, meaning a mix between the red of the Republicans and the blue of the Democrats. In other words, there is no certainty that there will be a clear left or right vote here. After the virtually lost vote 4 years ago, the Democrats believe that this time they could narrowly win.

The scene of an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate Donald Trump, the state of Pennsylvania is feeling the effects of inflation  more than any other state. And that could hurt Kamala Harris, as polls suggest she gives voters an unfavorable view of the economy.

Finally, Wisconsin. It has 10 electors who in 2016 voted for the one who would become the president of the USA. Today Donald Trump says that if he wins Wisconsin again, he will win everything.

Normally, a projected winner is announced on election night, but the actual Electoral College vote takes place in December, when electors meet in their states and vote.

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