On April 7, local government elections will be held in Poland: presidents of 16 provincial capitals and mayors of all other cities will be elected, and new local and provincial councils will be shaped as a result of April’s vote. These elections won’t be just a series of local competitions. They will also be a play-off to the autumn clash (parliamentary elections were held on October 15, 2023, and won by then-opposition parties that formed a government as the October 15 Coalition) between the new government and the weakening right-wing party of Jarosław Kaczyński (PiS). But it will also be a battle for hegemony within the October 15 Coalition itself, which today consists of four parties: Civic Coalition (KO), Polish People’s Party (PSL), Polska 2050 and Nowa Lewica (New Left).
The parties that won the 2023 parliamentary elections are competing with each other, but they still have one common opponent: PiS
“A good central government is a government that, without any fear, hands over resources and competences to people who want to decide about their fate at the local level [...] For 8 years, the PiS authorities, the central authorities, have been doing everything to make life difficult for local governments [...] We want to win the local elections to end the war at this level”, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at the Civic Coalition (KO) convention before local government elections.
Tusk added that the electoral fight in the upcoming local government elections is taking place in the name of the same values as the electoral fight in the parliamentary elections in October 15, 2023: “Poles are waiting for further changes [...] Poland deserves good governance at all levels. Poland deserves a good fate and security”.
The Third Way (Trzecia Droga), a coalition of two parties - the Polish People's Party (PSL) and Polska 2050 – organized its convention in Kielce (180 km south of Warsaw). Speaker of the Sejm (the lower house of the parliament) and leader of PL2050, Szymon Hołownia, declared that the Third Way intends to “unleash the power of local governments” and restore respect to local communities. “Local governments and communities deserve it because they have proven that they can sometimes cope with problems much better and faster than the central government,” Hołownia said. He also announced that local government cannot be “infected with political conflicts transferred from above”. In his speech, the Speaker of the Sejm promised that “after 20 years of politics ruled by conflict, it is time for 20 years of politics ruled by cooperation”.
The leader of the Polish People's Party, Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, pointed out that the key topics for PSL in this campaign are national security, opposing the goals of the Green Deal in agricultural matters and "taking over the reins of the country after the period of PiS rule”.
Kosiniak-Kamysz admitted that the result in the local elections was important for the “credibility and effectiveness” of the Third Way coalition within the government. “The stronger and better the result of the Third Way, the stronger our position in the government and parliament will be. This is absolutely related”, he said.
PiS in a state of shock: after eight years of exercising undivided power throughout the country, it suddenly lost almost all its influence
While the opposition is confident that it will score another elections victory, the Law and Justice Party seems to be in disarray. In early March, with just a month to go to the elections, PiS still had to unveil candidates for provincial presidents in Katowice, Wrocław or Olsztyn – a first for a major Polish political party – while the candidate it fielded for Warsaw has a really slim, if any, chance of winning.
The dynamics of events is unfavorable for PiS. Parliamentary investigative commissions are heavily grilling this party, and it can be assumed that the each of them will unearth further information compromising PiS, which will affect the party's ratings. So far, absurdly high subsidies have come to light, including: from the Justice Fund, which serves to help crime victims, witnesses, and people released from prison.
The new Minister of Justice Adam Bodnar withheld, for example, 37,5 million zloty (EUR 9 million) granted by the PiS government to the Profeto foundation run by the controversial exorcist Michał Olszewski (he drove out Satan using brawn). Already in 2020, the foundation received 43 million zloty from the Justice Fund for the construction of a therapeutic center for crime victims. It won the competition despite having no experience in this field (Profeto owns a radio, a portal, a mobile application, a YouTube channel, and organizes conferences, courses and online broadcasts). The foundation planned to place recording studios and server rooms in the building. It is clear that the building was to be the headquarters of the planned Profeto television (competitor of TV Trwam, ran by a clergyman, Tadeusz Rydzyk). The Justice Funds were used to pay for friends and acquaintances of the Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro, firefighters, as well as dozens of portals and initiatives that slandered the LGBT community and initiatives promoting women's rights. At the same time, the following were removed from the list of supported institutions: Lubuskie Association for Women BABA and the Women's Rights Center Foundation, which have been helping women who have experienced violence for over 20 years.
Since Donald Tusk's government was sworn in, Polish society learned about many PiS abuses, and KO politicians announce that this is just the beginning. Million-zloty salaries of journalists and managers of the public television TVP, which PiS turned into a propaganda mouthpiece that brings to mind the way public media is used in Russia, the wiretapping scandal using the Pegasus software (journalists, judges, prosecutors and opposition politicians were under surveillance), illegally appointed judges to the Constitutional Tribunal and the Supreme Court, shocking cases of cronyism, abuse and mismanagement are revealed in subsequent ministries. The list is long.
In the latest Ipsos survey for OKO.press and radio TOK FM, the question was: "To what extent do you agree that, as part of decisive settlements with the PiS government, we should punish and replace as many people as possible who worked in public institutions in the years 2016-2023?” as many as 57% of respondents answered that they strongly demand such moves.
An additional element of the recent weakening of PiS may be the growing internal criticism, today openly represented by former ministers in Mateusz Morawiecki's government, but also by right-wing publicists, who are increasingly critical of Jarosław Kaczyński himself. There are many indications that PiS, as an effect of the local government elections in April, may lose power in almost all the assemblies in which it governs - even the strongholds of Podkarpacie and Lubelskie (provinces in south-east Poland) are at risk.
An interesting example here is Świdnik in the Lubelskie region, where the right-wing has been winning for the last 30 years. In the upcoming elections for the mayor of Świdnik, two candidates associated with PiS will face each other: the deputy mayor, 40-year-old Marcin Dmowski, nominated by the outgoing mayor, Waldemar Jakson, who has been ruling the city continuously since 1998, and 33-year-old Marcin Magier, trusted by Artur Soboń, former deputy minister of finance. None of them wants to be associated with PiS now, so when the local portal reported that the deputy mayor of Świdnik would be the PiS candidate, the outraged Dmowski immediately sent a correction that it was not true. PiS is starting to become a burden, an obstacle to one's political career.
Another important factor in the crisis of the United Right (the PiS-led coalition of right-wing parties) is the complete loss of public media, which constituted the “PiS propaganda department” and reached the electorate quite effectively. The form of the party leader is also a source of problems – after the elections, he wanders even more deeply into the narrative that deprived him of power. This may consolidate the party for a while, but its members are concerned about whether Jarosław Kaczyński still has political sense and an idea for the future of the party.
As mainstream parties continue their bickering, the far-right and pro-Russians are on the rise, and they’re talking about Polexit
A weak PiS is a chance for a better result for far-right and other niche parties. Ultra-right and eurosceptic Konfederacja party ratings are rising, as it includes mainly unaffiliated politicians on its lists in local elections, but groups disappointed with the leaders of this anti-EU party are also being formed. Pro-Russian politicians decided to use the upcoming local elections and ongoing election campaigns to publicize their initiatives. In the first half of March, a demonstration took place in the streets of Lublin, with participants shouting: "Don't move the capital to Kiev" and "Russia is not our enemy.”
The demonstration called the March of Peace openly supported the interests of the Kremlin, and at its conclusion, Leszek Sykulski, leader of the Bezpieczna Droga (Safe Route) group, announced that a coalition of pro-Russian groups has been formed in Poland and is already putting forward its candidates in the April elections, although they will focus mainly on the elections to the European Parliament in June. The electoral agreement of anti-Ukrainian and anti-EU groups was called: the Voice of Strong Poland (Głos Silnej Polski). “Here in Lublin, we want to announce the formation of a pro-Polish coalition that will say: It's time to consider Polexit! That will say: Yes to the Polish farmer!,” Sykulski announced.
The Voice of Strong Poland includes: Safe Road, the Polish Anti-War Movement, Krzysztof Tołwiński's Front (former PiS MP) and the Citizens' Voice Pack. So far, these groups have tried to somewhat hide their pro-Russian attitude. Just a year ago, Leszek Sykulski argued that the goal of his organization was to strive for peace and to call for an end to the war as soon as possible. Over time, his party voiced more and more radical anti-Ukrainian demands, and Sykulski himself stopped hiding his sympathy for the Russian ambassador in Poland.
The honorary guest of the Peace March was Ryszard Zajączkowski, a candidate for the president of Lublin (capital of the Lubelszczyzna province) in the local elections from the Lublin Future and Tradition Election Committee. A professor at the Catholic University of Lublin, Zajączkowski was an opponent of sanitary restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic and participated in many anti-vaccination protests. Now Zajączkowski has joined pro-Russian circles. This is another proof of the interpenetration of anti-system movements and pro-Kremlin groups in Poland. This time, however, it is not only about mutual support in organizing protest actions, but also about political and electoral activity. There is no doubt that the influence of people with pro-Russian views in Poland is expanding. At the same time, there is no sign that the authorities are trying to prevent it, probably treating such groups as niche and non-threatening.
The local elections, a step towards the final stage of the Polish elections cycle: the presidential elections
Recently, we have been observing increased tension within the ruling coalition in Poland, but this is largely theater for the benefit of local government dens. Each party wants to get the best possible result to strengthen its position. Tusk convinces voters that tactical voting for the Third Way (to defeat PiS) no longer makes sense and this time “you should vote following your own beliefs”. In this way, Tusk refers to the dispute over abortion (PSL and part of PL2050 are against the liberalization of abortion law). He is aware that the electorates of KO and Poland 2050 are similar. Tusk also knows that a huge part of PL2050 voters are in favor of the liberal abortion law, so he wants to show them that voting for the Third Way is voting for conservatives. And he encourages them to support KO.
Despite all the turmoil and possible sharp disputes at the end of the campaign, the local elections are unlikely to divide the coalition of parties that took power on October 15, as they still have a common enemy – PiS – and a fresh round of elections, this time for the European Parliament, to prepare for.
Only after them may the expected further crisis of PiS occur, and perhaps even the fragmentation of this party. Or, on the other hand, we may see the erosion of the October 15 Coalition if the government stumbles over further reefs (the governing October 15 Coalition is divided on several important issues: abortion law, health care reform, taxes and Green Deal objectives). The farmers' sharp protest puts PSL in an unclear situation, as it has to balance between support for the government and sympathy for the farmers who have been protesting across the country for several weeks, opposing the Green Deal and grain imports from Ukraine.
The reconstruction of Polish politics is ongoing and will culminate in next year's presidential elections. Here, it is clearly visible that for the first time in the history of the Third Polish Republic after 1989, there will be not two favorites, but three: today's allies Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia and the still unknown candidate of the mainstream right-wing.
