One cold night in January, the office windows of Bulgaria’s ruling party “We Continue the Change” in Sofia were defaced with words like “traitor”, sprayed in black all over the outside walls. The reason was that at the time recently elected PM Kiril Petkov visited his Skopje colleague in search of a compromise, which would lead to Bulgaria to lift its controversial veto on North Macedonia’s accession talks over long standing historical, linguistic and identity disputes. Petkov expressed certainty that the countries should unite around business opportunities, rather than any conflicts.
That’s the thin ice Kiril Petkov is walking on – from rather neutral to North Macedonia and with conflicts dying out in the late 2010’s, Bulgaria’s society has been polarized again on the same topics that have been plaguing the relationship between the countries ever since North Macedonia became independent from Yugoslavia in 1991.
“We are ready and willing to completely change the meaning of what good neighborly relations are like”, said Bulgaria PM Kiril Petkov during his first meeting with North Macedonia PM and fellow Harvard alumni Dimitar Kovacevski during their first meeting on January 18. Petkov’s successful campaign with the We Continue the Change party in late 2021 relied on promises for anti-corruption reforms but also solving the long-standing historical disputes between Bulgaria and North Macedonia. The cordial tone between Petkov and Kovacevski gave some hopes for a quick resolvement and resulted in the initiation of expert working groups on how the trade, the infrastructure and the transport links can be improved, as well as groups working on education, culture and European integration issues.
Nearly half a year later, the ban, imposed in late 2020, is still on. It seems like progress has backtracked and a new decision by the government on whether to keep or lift the veto is coming up later in June after yet another round of heavy discussions, testing the patience of Skopje and the EU itself. Even the recently established Sofia - Skopje airline has been canceling flights…
Where did it all go wrong?
The veto is a controversial legacy from the previous government.
It’s now rarely noted that the ban on North Macedonia entering talks for EU membership was not a product of a widespread sentiment but a thinly-disguised effort by the previous cabinet to secure the nationalist votes ahead of the elections in March 2021.
Boyko Borissov’s GERB and the nationalist alliance United Patriots (currently disintegrated), the then-ruling coalition of Bulgaria, decided to impose the ban in a moment when the government was shaken by widespread anti-establishment protests and Borissov’s government was increasingly associated with corruption allegations. Ever since, the Macedonian card has been played out by whoever wants to provoke a similar reaction in the society. Another controversial layer is that in 2019 several members of one of the parties in the United Patriots group, IMRO, were charged with selling Bulgarian passports to Macedonians who want to benefit from having EU documents. On legal grounds, there has been a trend of Macedonians adopting Bulgarian passports (over 100,000 since Bulgaria joining the EU in 2007).
Borissov’s move was successful at reigniting the conflicts and changing the media focus but it did not bring GERB victory.
These elections proved to be only the beginning of a continuous logjam which saw the fall of Boyko Borissov and the rise of a new party headed by hugely popular entertainer Slavi Trifonov in July 2021. There’s Such People party was a one-hit wonder: a phenomenon which only gave way to another new political presence – We Continue the Change by Kiril Petkov and now Deputy Prime Minister Assen Vassilev, both members of the 2021 interim cabinet appointed by incumbent President Rumen Radev.
What Bulgaria demands
“Skopje must acknowledge historical truth: If the Republic of North Macedonia acknowledges the Bulgarian roots of its nation and language, this would put an end to the tension in our relationship”, said in early 2021 Ekaterina Zakharieva, back then Bulgarian Foreign Minister and member of GERB. Bulgarian officials often note that North Macedonia is violating a 2017 treaty (described at the time by both governments as game-changing and a definitive step forward), by failing to acknowledge their shared history and language similarities, a topic that’s a hard swallow for many Macedonians who insist they speak a distinct language.
An even more controversial demand from Sofia is for Skopje to recognize a Bulgarian minority in its constitution. Despite its willingness to improve the relationship, this is a point that Kiril Petkov does not step away from and in interviews has stressed that Bulgarians in Macedonia are a potentially repressed group. At the same time, the Bulgarian constitution does not recognize any specific minorities.
Ever since Bulgaria gained independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1878, the territory currently part of North Macedonia has been associated with the vision of a united ethnic Bulgaria. People of North Macedonia have been continuously associated in Bulgaria as victims of falsified history, part of Yugoslavia diminishing any influence Bulgaria might have in that territory. Bulgarian historians are largely supportive of the idea that independent Macedonia is sort of a project by Yugoslavia and these dynamics have been associated with persecutions of Bulgarians.
According to the 1900 book “Macedonia. Ethnography and Statistics” by Bulgarian author Vassil Kanchov, recently mentioned by fact-check Instagram project Zemlevezh, 46.1% of the population that lived in present-day North Macedonia, back then still in the Ottoman Empire, was made of Christian Bulgarians and 6.6 were Muslim Bulgarians, and there were no people identifying themselves as Macedonians. The continuous wars and conflicts of the XX century saw much of that population moving into Bulgaria. According to the 2021 census, in North Macedonia there are only 3,504 people (0.02%) who identify as Bulgarians.
What North Macedonia fears
Bulgaria’s demands essentially mean identity erasure for Macedonians and by accepting the demands the country would play into the narrative of having a pseudo national stance.
North Macedonia’s bid was also previously blocked by Greece until 2018 over disputes on the country’s name, the same as that of the neighboring geographic region in Greece and, of course, with that of historical Macedonia, which is regarded as part of the ancient Greek world. On May 26, Macedonia President Stevo Pendarovski said to Euronews Albania that despite all the conflicts with Athens, Greece has never questioned the national identity of the population. “We might include the Bulgarians in our constitution, why not? But we need a guarantee that’s going to be the end line of Bulgaria’s demands”, said Pendarovski who sees the idea of Macedonia being a project of Yugoslavia as Communist-era myth-making and noted that all Balkan countries have to some degree a shared history.
Bulgaria and North Macedonia are also clashing on the legacy of several historical figures, such as Ottoman-era hero Gotze Delchev or XI century leader Tsar Samuel of Bulgaria, both held in high regard in the respective countries.
Every time Petkov makes a step forward, he takes another step back
In several instances Petkov has made questionable decisions and statements.
On April 17, Petkov, along with numerous other officials, attended the opening of a Bulgarian cultural center in the Macedonian town of Bitola named after Ivan Mihailov - widely remembered as a controversial Nazi collaborator in North Macedonia and at the same time unknown to the general public in Bulgaria.
Dragi Gjorgiev, co-chair of the joint North Macedonia-Bulgaria Commission for Historical and Educational Affairs, described this development to Deutsche Welle as a “deliberate provocation” from Bulgaria’s side.
Who is against the veto and who wants it to stay
There’s a growing resistance in Bulgaria’s parliament against the lifting of the veto which also means tightening the circle around Kiril Petkov. In the ruling coalition, We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria are open to end the debates, while the other parties - There’s Such People and pro-Kremlin Bulgarian Socialist Party, see any softening on Skopje as a sign of weakness and against the “national interests” of Bulgaria.
“The future of our neighbors is so important that even the [ruling] coalition cannot decide on it solely. We need wider acceptance; everyone in the country should be in tune with the decision”, said Petkov on May 23, right before meeting with Kovacevski who recently has hardened his tone.
In May, There’s Such People threatened to leave the government if Bulgaria lifts the ban on its neighbor. In April, the Socialists said that it’s impossible for Bulgaria to “retreat”. In the parliament, far-righters Vazrazhdane (Revival) are also vehemently against lifting the ban.
President Rumen Radev, associated with pro-Russia statements, a former ally of We Continue the Change who has been increasingly hostile to the government since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, has said repeatedly that the only way for Sofia and Macedonia to make amends, is for Skopje to follow the 2017 treaty: “Our approval of North Macedonia starting EU accession talks should not be tied to deadlines but with reaching realistic goals, including the recognition of the Bulgarian minority in the country.”
What’s at stake
Doing the “right thing” might result in new elections with a very uncertain outcome for the coalition: on May 18, a Gallup poll put former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB coming first with 13.9 per cent of the popular vote, following by We Continue the Change on 13.4 per cent. Pro-Russia sentiments might also dominate in the parliament: increasingly popular Revival might end fourth with 5.4 per cent, while newly-founded Bulgarian Rise, also sympathetic to Russia, is seen close to crossing the threshold.
The narrative that Kiril Petkov will initiate the lifting of the ban to appease the EU is getting popular among his rivals who see this as diminishing Bulgaria’s choices as a sovereign state. While throwing the ban off will no doubt polish his image in Brussels, such a decision risks the stability of the coalition and an ever more tense relationship in the parliament and with President Radev.
