The US and the UK have bombed targets in Yemen. The operation, aimed at deterring further attacks by the Houthi militia in the Red Sea, could cause an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
An attack to protect freedom of navigation. The Red Sea routes link the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea and are vital for global oil shipping
The Allies have attacked with Tomahawk missiles (known to have been launched from the submarine USS Florida, which had recently arrived in the region) and aircraft, including 4 British Typhoons that took off from the Akrotiri base in Cyprus. Missile installations, aerial drones and naval drones, air defense systems and radars were targeted in several regions of Yemen, including the capital Sana'a and the port of Hudayhad.
The decision to bomb Houthi targets was taken after they had launched more than 25 attacks in the Red Sea in the last three months. Just days before the US-British raids, the naval forces of the two countries shot down dozens of drones and missiles launched by the Houthis in the direction of shipping routes in the Red Sea. In early January, another serious incident took place – Houthi fighters attacked a civilian freighter and tried to board it. American helicopters were sent to support the ship; according to the Pentagon, Houthi fighters opened fire on the helicopters, which fired back and sank three of the boats.
The naval routes through the Red Sea are of global importance, as they connect the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, via the Suez Canal. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which separates the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden, is one of the four key points, globally, for the shipping of oil.
The war in Gaza has led to violence across the region, from Lebanon to Syria and from Iraq to Yemen
Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, other outbreaks of violence have emerged in the region. Hundreds of people have since died in the West Bank, where even before October 7 some of the most intense violence in years had been reported. From southern Lebanon, Hezbollah launched attacks on northern Israel, the most intense of which occurred after Hamas's number two, Saleh al-Arouri, was assassinated in Beirut on January 2. In Iraq and Syria, US military bases were targeted in a wave of attacks – 130 from October 17, 2023 to January 11, 2024 – resulting in 66 injuries. The Americans responded with a series of surgical strikes that targeted bases of Shia militias, but also the leader of one of these militias, right in Baghdad. After the attack in Baghdad, the Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani called for the withdrawal of the several thousand American troops still deployed in Iraq, but for now Washington has no plans to take any action in this regard.
The Houthi rebels became involved in the conflict in late October and started by launching drones and missile in the director of Israel (none of which hit their target). Since November, the Houthis have switched to attacks in the Red Sea. Officially, their targets are those ships that have as their destination or point of departure the port of Eilat or are owned by Israeli entities, but the attacks have also targeted ships that have no connection with Israel.
Almost in all the areas where violence has been reported, the shadow of Iran can be felt in the background. The exception is perhaps the West Bank, but even there, there are active cells of the terrorist groups in Gaza, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which have ties to Tehran. Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Shiite militias involved in the attacks in Syria and Iraq are seen as Iran's proxies, and even if they have some freedom of movement, it is hard to believe that they would launch such a wave of attacks without the coordination or at least the agreement of Tehran. As for the Houthis, the Iranian influence is not as great as in the other cases, but there has been a lasting partnership between the two. Iran has supported the Houthis for years, including with weapons, and the Americans say Tehran was deeply involved in the Red Sea attacks. .
Iran has sent signals that it does not want a full-scale war; all these strikes by his intermediaries are a borderline game that Tehran has specialized in since the 80s. Israel is also not interested in a spreading war, even though it has the ability to fight on multiple fronts, and political and military leaders in Jerusalem have warned that it could intervene in Lebanon against Hezbollah. As for the United States, the only Western power capable of waging a large and sustained campaign away from its own territory, it has also sent numerous signals that it does not want a war; US Secretary of State Antony Blinken started the year with a diplomatic tour of the region precisely to signal this.
The American-British operation could lead to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Why the Houthis are a threat
All this does not mean that an escalation of the war is out of the question. One miscalculation is enough to lead to a spiral of violence that can escalate until the situation gets out of control. The American-British operation is the type of event that could trigger such a spiral. The Houthis have already threatened to continue their attacks in the Red Sea and that the United States and Britain will pay a heavy price for their bombing. In the other camp, US President Joe Biden has warned that he is ready to order more attacks. The Americans expect the Houthis to try something, and they are unlikely to start a full-scale war if only they launch a few drones and missiles. But it matters a lot what the scale of the Houthi response will be and what exactly they will hit - if they manage to get past the anti-air defense systems. One thing is clear: the Houthis have shown that they are not afraid of a confrontation with a power that is technologically superior to them.
In 2014, the group was attacked by a Saudi-led coalition that supported the country's official government, driven out of Sana'a by the Houthis. The Saudis and their partners have advanced Western (especially American) technology that allowed them to gain near-total control over Yemeni airspace and impose a blockade on Houthi-controlled territories. Adding to the military pressures was a humanitarian crisis, which arose in the conditions in which Yemen was already the poorest Arab country. However, the Houthis managed to hold out, and after 9 years of fighting the Saudis accepted serious peace negotiations – despite the fact that the war was initiated by the country's ambitious and arrogant de facto ruler, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. And the Saudis are far from the first to lose a war in Yemen, where there is a long tradition of resistance to foreign forces, from the Ottoman Empire to Nasser's Egypt. At the center of this resistance have been the Zaydi Shiites, who are concentrated in the northern mountains but have dominated Yemen for centuries. The Houthis are a tribal-religious movement started by the same Zaydis.
Obviously, there is a difference between a ground operation and an air and naval one that aims only to protect freedom of navigation and eliminate the Houthi's ability to launch attacks in the Red Sea. In addition, Washington has more tools at its disposal than the Saudis, and it is assumed that the Americans would also be more effective because it is not enough to have technology, one would also have to know how to use it. But the Houthis too have some buttons they can push if the conflict escalates.
There are military targets - US ships and bases in the region, which are somewhat harder to hit - but there are also easier targets, with effects that would be felt globally. First of all, at least in an initial stage, the attacks in the Red Sea area might intensify, which in turn would paralyze for a while the already diminished naval traffic. Secondly, Saudi Arabia could be targeted again, even if peace talks are taking place now. The Houthis attacked the Saudi oil industry with drones in 2019, causing, admittedly for a short time, a 50% drop in Riyadh’s production The impact of a similar strike would be much greater now, with markets already battered by sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Last but not least, the risk of an even bigger escalation of the conflict should not be neglected, based on the domino principle – Arab Shia militias, already acting for Hamas, and Palestinians (the majority of whom are Sunnis) would be even more motivated when other Shiites got involved, albeit from another sect.
