Amidst the uncertainties surrounding American security guarantees, Estonia is also marked by a political crisis. The country’s far right is the only one who seems pleased with the new developments.
In March, Estonia's ruling coalition collapsed as Social Democrats were expelled from the cabinet. This occurred against the backdrop of the most serious geopolitical upheavals since the country regained independence.
The abrupt shift in U.S. foreign policy — pressuring Ukraine into peace, the Trump administration’s apparent willingness to improve relations with Russia, and the looming military threat over Eastern Europe — is felt particularly acutely in Estonia.
Only the far right welcomes Trump
The ruling elite and their supporters are calling for rapid rearmament, fearing that an unfavorable peace for the Western democracies in Ukraine and the loss of the United States as a strong ally could make Estonia the next target of an aggressive neighbor. Predictions range from two to seven years.
However, many are optimistic about these geopolitical changes, anticipating either a revanche or at least the restoration of economic and cultural ties with Russia. Notably, this “peace party” sentiment is present not only among local Russians, but among ethnic Estonians as well. Conversations range from debating which basement offers the best shelter from missile strikes to speculating on a potential return to a "USSR 2.0." Some are quietly looking for homes away from the civilization fault line, with Spain being a particularly popular choice.
"Our Estonian politicians and parties are as bewildered as those of us closely following world events," political analyst Peeter Taim told Veridica. "We’re almost ashamed of what our most important ally — who has promised for 33 years that ‘we are with you’ — is doing now. But at the same time, openly criticizing or distancing ourselves from them isn’t an option." However, Taim notes that the National Conservative Party is a notable exception: "They are ecstatic, euphoric over Trump’s actions, praising him for making so many bold decisions in just sixty days."
The most enthusiastic supporters of the U.S. policy shift are indeed Estonia’s far-right circles. EKRE leader Martin Helme, returning from Trump’s inauguration, was greeted triumphantly at the airport. By March, EKRE’s approval rating had exceeded 17%, making it the second most popular party in Estonia.
Varro Vooglaid, an independent candidate who ran for the Riigikogu under EKRE, openly advocates for improving relations with Russia, opposes the confiscation of Russian assets, and criticizes the current government. Overall, his stance fits well into the Kremlin’s foreign policy narrative. In his view, the war in Ukraine began due to NATO expansion, and former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who claimed that Estonia is already in a state of war, is provoking the neighboring country. "If someone's goal is to expand the war in Ukraine and bring it to Estonia, then it makes sense to say that Estonia is already at war and to call the country we are supposedly fighting against an enemy ‘in the literal sense of the word.’ … If we consider ourselves at war with Russia, we should not be surprised if Russia starts to view relations with the Republic of Estonia in the same way," Vooglaid wrote.
"They have completely exposed themselves — after all, their great admiration for Kremlin and Putin’s methods, their approach to governance and the country, aligns ideologically," said political analyst Peeter Taim about conservative politicians.
Ruling Parties Are Unpopular
Leading the political rankings by a wide margin is another opposition party, the right-wing Fatherland (Isamaa), which enjoys the support of a third of the country’s population. The combined rating of the ruling coalition is below 20%. While the Reform Party, led by Prime Minister Kristen Michal, is still seen as a competitive political force, its coalition partner Estonia 200 is currently failing to meet the electoral threshold.
Kristen Michal is criticized for being almost invisible on the international stage, unlike Kaja Kallas. Meanwhile, Kallas herself is blamed for her radically anti-Russian stance, which prevents her from engaging in effective diplomacy — not only with the Trump administration but also with European colleagues. Her unsuccessful visit to Washington and the fact that Estonia was not invited to the meetings of European leaders in Paris and London — despite Kallas now heading European diplomacy — have raised concerns among Estonian observers.
The Reform Party itself is also worried, despite having a mandate to govern for a couple more years with coalition partners of its choice. The political crisis, seemingly orchestrated out of nowhere and culminating in the expulsion of the Social Democrats from the government, has been seen as an attempt to revive ratings by blaming former partners for tax increases. However, the underlying reason for the tax hikes remains unchanged: the country needs funds for rearmament, and the government has so far failed to stimulate economic growth, even though both the Reform Party and Estonia 200 have traditionally been seen as pro-business parties.
The recently loosened EU budgetary rules seemingly offer the government a chance to increase public spending through borrowing. "Russia’s strategic goals have not changed in any way. Our eastern neighbor’s aggression threatens all surrounding nations, including those in Europe and NATO. To ensure Estonia is well-protected, we must quickly adapt and dramatically increase our defense budget," stated Prime Minister Kristen Michal. "Our goal is to make Russian military aggression against Estonia impossible. To this end, we will raise defense spending to at least 5% of GDP."
So, were the ammunition orders placed or not?
However, the readiness to rearm has triggered a more serious political crisis in Estonia, significantly troubling the Reform Party. In mid-March, Urmas Reinsalu, leader of the opposition Fatherland (Isamaa) and the most popular candidate for prime minister, proposed replacing defense minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform Party).
"The current defense minister has proven to be insufficiently competent to make and implement critically important decisions in national defense," Reinsalu stated. According to him, during a special parliamentary commission meeting on state budget oversight, he learned that out of the €1.6 billion allocated for additional ammunition procurement, exactly €0 had been spent.
This attack on the incumbent minister was supported by former Deputy Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Kusti Salm, who resigned last year and became CEO of the defense technology company Frankenburg Technologies. "The fact remains that, despite the autumn recommendations from the Commander of the Defense Forces to procure ammunition, the defense minister ordered ammunition for zero euros. In my view, this is completely irresponsible given the current situation. This is an existential issue for Estonia," Salm wrote on social media.
The next day, however, the defense minister refuted these accusations. "The entire €1.6 billion has already been allocated for orders. The timing of deliveries depends on specific manufacturers and how the Defense Investments Center signs specific contracts," Pevkur clarified in an interview with Delfi. "As soon as the decision was made in September, we started placing orders."
This controversy did not boost the Reform Party’s popularity, but contrary to expectations, Pevkur retained his position in the new government, whose expected composition became known on March 22. As for the opposition, it has already found a new target: the candidate for interior minister, Igor Taro (Estonia 200), was discovered to have written his journalism thesis at Moscow State University (MGU) on Estonia-Russia mutual understanding. Even though his anti-Russian stance is not seriously questioned, his rivals saw an opportunity to exploit this biographical detail.
Unfortunately, unity and solidarity in the face of external threats remain elusive in Estonia. And the weak approval ratings of the ruling coalition remain an additional risk factor in an already complicated political situation.
