The Republic of Moldova – the Empire strikes back?

The referendum on Moldova’s EU accession was a failure due to the tiny margin, the Ukrainian press writes. The causes of this failure include Russia’s direct actions and the fact that there’s been no de-Russification in Moldova

The Republic of Moldova, seen by Ukraine as a natural ally

Ukraine has always divided its allies into three categories – circumstantial, strategic and natural. The first category includes the countries of "old Europe" and the United States. They can support Kyiv, but they can also renounce this support – it depends on their geopolitical position at the time. The strategic ones are the countries of Eastern Europe - such as Poland, Romania and Hungary, but also Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. They must support Ukraine precisely because otherwise they would be directly threatened by Russia: many of them would even have direct borders with Russia if Ukraine falls. Against this background, all the more strange are the positions of Hungary and Slovakia, which strategically should be on the side of the Ukrainians.

There are also natural allies: on the one hand, there is Lithuania (an EU member, linked to Ukraine through the very history of the two countries), Belarus (which is currently, in fact, occupied by the Russians), and the two countries next to which Ukraine "is stepping on the European path": Georgia and the Republic of Moldova.

Both are countries with frozen conflicts and territories more or less directly occupied by Russia, which does not want any of them to continue its European course and has been trying to keep them in its sphere of influence since the collapse of the USSR. The fact that they were included in the same package of European integration with Ukraine, against the backdrop of the outbreak of the full-scale war, gave Russia an additional reason to view Georgia and the Republic of Moldova as targets of its hybrid war. In the nearly three years since the invasion, Georgia’s relations with Ukraine have steadily deteriorated, as have those with the European Union and the United States. Russia has almost managed to turn away Georgia from its European path, and the elections in early November will show to what extent the population supports the policies of the current Georgian Dream government.

Unlike the government in Tbilisi, the one in Chisinau has remained staunchly pro-European and maintained excellent relations with Ukraine. Russia's efforts, in this case, were focused on undermining the government and even removing it - in 2023 there was talk of plans for a coup in Chisinau , information that was first made public by the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. Moscow has also waged a heavy disinformation campaign in an attempt to weaken support for European integration, and has reportedly spent considerable sums to buy hundreds of thousands of votes in the presidential elections and the referendum.

The EU accession referendum, a failure

Even though the EU membership referendum passed, the narrow margin of votes led most Ukrainian commentators to label it a "failure". Some of them - for example Yevhen Hlibovytskyi - believe that organizing a referendum was a mistake because people were influenced by the perception they have of the government's performance, pro or anti-EU arguments coming into the background. Ukraine signed its Euro-Atlantic integration into the Constitution, but did so directly in Parliament, without any consultation of the population.

The Ukrainian press notes that the votes of the diaspora are what tipped the balance and that "Moldovans inside the country do not want to join the EU. One of the most respected analysts, Serhiy Sydorenko, wrote in Ukrainska Pravda that Maia Sandu’s electoral “victory” turned into “a disaster” : "There will be negative consequences for the current government of Moldova, for the country as a whole and for Ukraine. The paradox of the situation is that Sandu won, formally speaking. Yes, the referendum on European integration passed. Voters narrowly supported the constitutional amendments, and now Moldova’s fundamental law will include provisions regarding its European integration. But this result was ensured by the diaspora. Instead, the Moldovans in the country opposed the approach to the EU. Opponents of the EU movement won in the vast majority of regions of the country, in some places receiving up to 95% of the vote! This will give Moscow and pro-Russian actors powerful leverage to question Moldova's EU aspirations and even undermine its integrity."

Artem Fylypenko, from the National Institute of Strategic Research, believes that the most serious problems are just beginning , given that Alexandr Stoianoglo is supported by Russia and in a year there will be an even bigger battle in the parliamentary elections: "Money and technology make the law. Russia threw huge resources into blocking the referendum, and generally got the result it wanted. Now, all these technologies will be successfully applied in the parliamentary elections, which are even more important than the presidential ones, because Moldova is still a parliamentary republic."

Political scientist Oleksiy Koshel explains why the tiny margin of the referendum can be considered a failure: "For the decision to be legitimate, for society to accept it, there should be no disputes or contradictions, and the decision should have been made by a vast majority." However, the close result may have been influenced by the fact that Russia tried to buy 300 thousand votes, many of them in Gagauzia: "For us [Ukrainians - I.L.], the conclusion should be the same: we cannot solve the problem of Russian influence just by taking small steps. The core of it must be solved, because, even despite the great efforts made by Maia Sandu, the issue remains. Russia bought all the votes of pensioners and civil servants in Gagauzia, without exception. Do the math: this represents about a third of the Gagauz electorate. If we take the cumulative effect of relatives and family members, we can say that they tried to buy the entire Gagauzia, in bulk, with 100 euros per month for each person. 100 euros per month as "help" from "brotherly" Russia. As a result, it is difficult to expect honesty in elections and the referendum."

The result of the referendum, influenced by the fact that there was no de-Russification in Moldova

The unimpressive result of the referendum seems to have been also influenced by the important Ukrainian minority in the Republic of Moldova. Unlike their Ukrainian compatriots, Moldovan Ukrainians are highly Russified and pro-Russian, respectively. The Rada deputy from Poroshenko's Bloc, Oleksiy Honcharenko, who was an observer at the election, writes: "We are talking about hundreds of thousands of people. Politically, these people are very Russified. They watch Russian TV and you know the rest.

Question. What has Ukraine done in the last 30+ years to ensure that these people are also politically Ukrainian? So that their number does not decrease? So that talented children from their families can go to study in Ukraine? So that they simply have the opportunity to learn more about their ethnic homeland? The answer: NOTHING. NEVER.

We haven't even had an ambassador to Moldova for a while. (...) I'm not even talking about the think tank on Moldova that should be in Ukraine. And which just doesn't exist."

The elections and the referendum in Moldova were commented on in Ukraine and on social media, where the power that the Russians still have in Moldova was recalled. Russian names, the ribbons of St. George, the ubiquitous Russian language ("Why does the CEC double the information in Russian?!" - Ukrainian correspondents write) - there are too many things long forgotten in Ukraine.