The separatist agitations seem to increasingly mark the Republic of Moldova's rapprochement with the European Union, after Chisinau got the opening of accession negotiations at the end of last year. Both in Transnistria, which has not been under the control of Chisinau since 1992, and in the Gagauz Autonomous Region in the south of Bessarabia, spirits seem to be heating up against the background of an increasingly fierce hybrid war waged by the Russian Federation against the Republic of Moldova.
Commemoration of a pro-Russian and anti-EU phantom referendum in Gagauzia
In the Gagauz region, high school teachers and students have been recently forced, by an order of the local authorities, to participate in a march intended to mark the anniversary of a 2014 consultative referendum, which was declared illegal shortly after it was held by the judiciary in Republic of Moldova.
At that referendum, the residents of the autonomous region were supposed to say which was better, in their opinion: for the Republic of Moldova to join the European Union or the Eurasian Customs Union formed around the Russian Federation. 97% of the participants in the plebiscite voted for joining the Eurasian Union, and 98% voted in favor of the Gagauz region, an integral part of the Republic of Moldova, becoming an independent state in case the Republic of Moldova lost its sovereignty.
The loss of sovereignty probably meant the union of the Republic of Moldova with Romania or, why not, the accession to the European Union, which could also be interpreted by the pro-Russian forces as a loss of sovereignty.
It should be noted that the said referendum took place shortly before the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the start of the war in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Eastern Ukraine, but also just a few months before Chisinau signed the Association Agreement with the EU.
After the events dedicated to the referendum, in early February, the reaction of the Chisinau authorities seems to have been, at least so far, too mild. The Ministry of Education and Research, the only state institution (besides the Ombudsman) that reacted officially, asked for "no disruption to the educational process" and notified the relevant institutions about the involvement of students in these political events, which is prohibited by law in the Republic of Moldova.
The referendum in the Gagauz region, similar to the one in Ukraine that prefaced the annexation of Crimea by Russia
Political commentator Mihail Sirkeli, originally from the Gagauz region, recalls that the 2014 referendum "was inspired by the pro-Russian representatives of the Republic of Moldova and supported by Russia". "At that time, the deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation were very actively involved in organizing this referendum, following the model of the so-called plebiscite in Crimea, held in March 2014. Back then, Russia obviously tried to implement the Novorossia project, that is to occupy the south-east of Ukraine, up to Odesa and the Republic of Moldova. There was even talk of a so-called Budjak republic, in the south of Bessarabia. This referendum in the Gagauz region is about that. We all know how those referendums in Ukraine ended. It is clear that it was a way of challenging the statehood, sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Moldova", stressed Mihail Sirkeli.
In his opinion, Chişinău has not regained its ability to influence politics in the Gagauz region, which entails multiple risks for the state. "Russia influences the region not only informationally, but also politically. Kremlin representatives are in power in the region. Chisinau has done nothing to limit Russia's ability to operate in the region politically and financially. Chisinau, unfortunately, is totally out of the political game. And I would not only blame the current leadership of the Republic of Moldova, but also the previous ones. Because all the mistakes that have been made by the political class until now are now showing. Obviously, Chisinau's attitude towards the Gagauz region must be changed, in general, regarding the involvement of the external factor, Russia, in the politics of the Republic of Moldova", said Mihail Sirkeli.
On the other hand, political analyst Ion Tăbârță told Veridica.ro that "the anniversary march of the so-called 2014 referendum is nothing but an action to promote separatism in the Republic of Moldova". He stressed that both political forces and individuals promoting and fueling separatism must be punished according to law.
"The state authorities should act more firmly to integrate the inhabitants of the autonomous region of Gagauzia into the political, linguistic and informational space of the Republic of Moldova. But those who knowingly organized this march, who intend to strike at the central authorities, the government, the state of the Republic of Moldova, who are provoking and fueling this separatism, must be held accountable, if we want to put an end to these trends so that they don't gat bigger”, Ion Tăbârță said.
Tiraspol accuses Chisinau of an economic blockade. Chisinau says, however, that all companies must operate under equal conditions
The Gagauz region is not the only one to host separatist actions recently. In January, in Transnistria, which Chisinau hasn’t controlled at all since 1992, several rallies against the constitutional authorities of the Republic of Moldova were held. The discontent was caused by the new Customs Code of the Republic of Moldova that entered into force on January 1, which stipulates that all companies in Transnistria are obliged to pay customs duties similar to other companies from the Republic of Moldova. Before that, companies on the left side of the Dniester were exempted from these taxes.
On January 24, a protest rally was held in Tiraspol against what the participants in the event termed as an economic blockade imposed by Chisinau. It is assumed that this rally was organized at the initiative of the separatist administration of Tiraspol, because in the separatist region of Transnistria, just like in Russia, unauthorized protests are repressed.
The President of the Supreme Soviet (the Tiraspol legislature), Aleksandr Korsunov, who also participated in the rally, declared himself alarmed by the new customs duties introduced by the Chisinau authorities. In his opinion, they would violate previous agreements signed between Chisinau and Tiraspol, starting in 1997.
On the other hand, the president of the Parliamentary Committee for National Security, Defense and Public Order, Lilian Carp, stressed the fact that the adoption of the new Customs Code "is a step towards the reunification of the Republic of Moldova".
"For 30 years we kept giving in [...]. That is why companies in the Republic of Moldova were being discriminated against. What we have decided is that all companies operate on equal terms. It is a decision by which we are conveying several messages; the first is that they are active on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, even if they self-proclaim their independence, and the law is the same for all. We are also sending a signal that the time has come to start the process of reunification of the Republic of Moldova [...]", said Lilian Carp.
It should be noted that, although Chisinau does not control the Transnistrian region and the latter declares itself an independent state, companies there can only export or import products with the consent of the authorities of the Republic of Moldova.
Moscow's narratives: Russia should prepare for the escalation of the situation in Transnistria
The recent tensions between Chisinau and Tiraspol have escalated against the backdrop of warnings issued in January by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). ISW noted, for example, that narratives regarding the alleged economic blockade imposed by the Chisinau authorities on the Transnistrian region had also been picked up by pro-Kremlin bloggers.
One of these bloggers is Rybar, who talks about Chisinau's alleged economic pressure on Tiraspol. Rybar claims that the Moldovan authorities would exert increasing pressure on Transnistria, by imposing "double taxes" on Transnistrian companies. This pressure, according to Rybar, is aimed at the "forced reintegration" of Transnistria within the Republic of Moldova, so that Russia should prepare for further escalation.
His statements, however, contradict those made by the Chisinau authorities, who have repeatedly stated that the Transnistrian issue can only be solved peacefully.
ISW concludes that "the claims of the Kremlin-affiliated military blogger […] are probably part of a disinformation operation designed to destabilize Moldova, which borders NATO member Romania, and to justify any future Russian escalation in the region."
Russia will try in every way to destabilize the Republic of Moldova
Therefore, it can be assumed that Russia will try in every way to destabilize the Republic of Moldova, in the hope that it will succeed in removing the pro-European forces from power, both in the 2024 presidential elections and, especially, in the parliamentary elections due in 2025. Fueling the separatist trends seems to be only part of the scenarios created in Moscow. It is expected that, now that elections are drawing near, Russia will intensify actions aimed at discrediting the European idea in every way, while at the same time dividing even more the society of the Republic of Moldova, disorienting and misinforming it, cultivating feelings of fear and distrust of the current power.
The recent incident in Bălți, where a few obscure Telegram channels distributed "terror" threats to schools in this city in the north of the Republic of Moldova, can also serve as proof. These posts also included instructions on how to make homemade bombs. The police qualified the actions as a "hybrid attack, aimed at confusing citizens and creating panic in society."
Another element of this hybrid war launched by Russia against the Republic of Moldova seems to be the recent arson at the NATO Information and Documentation Center, a non-governmental organization in Chisinau.
And this is just the beginning of the election year.
