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The Republic of Moldova could face a number of serious challenges this autumn, given that Russia wants to bring this country back into its orbit. At domestic level, Moscow is expected to use any leverage it has in the separatist region of Transnistria and in Găgăuzia. Adding to these pressure points will be the country’s energy concerns.
Sergey Lavrov’s threats
Right now, Russia doesn’t want Moldova to be able to fulfill the nine requirements set by Brussels as a prerequisite for EU accession. Six of these points concern the judiciary alone and are currently being implemented or finalized, which means the Republic of Moldova has a good chance of advancing to the next phase of its relationship with the EU, namely opening the negotiation chapters.
This decision will most likely be taken at the European Council summit of June 2023. Until then, Russia will take concerted action and use any instruments at its disposal to hinder this process.
Although some signs have already started to show, this autumn will be of capital importance for Chișinău. As a preamble to the cold season, the first cry of alarm was raised last week by Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, who reiterated that Russia will protect Russian speakers in Moldova. However, these Russian speakers are under no threat. They benefit from unprecedented rights and there is no inter-ethnic struggle with the majority population.
Minister Lavrov said Russia will protect the Russian speakers in Moldova in the context in which Tiraspol is pressing for negotiations with Chișinău. Sergey Lavrov made a veiled threat in a statement for a Russian television station, saying that the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Găgăuzia (ATUG) might also face a situation similar to that in Transnistria. In other words, the Russian Foreign Minister spoke of a new possible hotbed of separatism. Lavrov outlined exactly what Moscow wants Moldova to do: “Moldovan leaders will do the right thing by ceasing the geopolitical games imposed by the West and start thinking about the interests of those people who live next to each other”. Lavrov also referred to one the narratives promoted by Russia for a long time, that should the Republic of Moldova or the West side with Ukraine, this could mean trouble.
This is not the first such statement Lavrov has made. In June, the Russian official said the Republic of Moldova is treading in the footsteps of Ukraine, because it wants to do away with everything that is Russian, after president Maia Sandu ratified a law on information security that banned Russian propaganda on Moldovan TV and radio stations. Moscow interpreted this move as an attempt to restrict the access to information of the Russian-speaking population.
Energy blackmail as the cold approaches
Chișinău has no interest in starting a conflict with Moscow and antagonizing Russia just as the cold season approaches, for fear of losing its natural gas supply.
The Republic of Moldova is still 100% reliant on Russian gas, while approximately 70% of its energy input is provided by the Cuciurgan power plant in the separatist region of Transnistria, which is a subsidiary of the Russian company Inter-RAO. Moldova’s margin of maneuver therefore significantly narrows, a situation Moscow takes full advantage of, whether directly or by proxy.
The pressure exerted by Moscow and Tiraspol have in fact paid off. Chișinău has extended by another month the environment permits of the Metallurgical Plant in Râbnița (MMZ), the main source of currency for the Transnistrian budget.
Additionally, the Moldovan Government missed the opportunity of contracting a consortium of Romanian businesses for building a high-voltage interconnector linking Isaccea in Romania to Chișinău via Vulcănești. Instead, the contract was awarded to an Indian company involved in a number of corruption scandals at home. Despite the difficulties facing the Indian company, it nevertheless won the controversial public tender, by bidding just an additional 30,000 USD on top of the initial offer of 27 million USD.
Such strategic mistakes might keep the Republic of Moldova hostage to energy imports from Transnistria, also endangering deliveries from Ukraine, a country currently at war.
The power keg called Găgăuzia
Moscow’s range of instruments goes far beyond the two types of actions described above. Moscow can also use the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Găgăuzia, inhabited by Turkish ethnics, who are de facto Russian-speakers with pro-Russian sympathies. For a number of months now, several local politicians have been opening calling for a pro-Moscow policy, stirring the pot and staging anti-government protests.
Moreover, they often resort to direct or veiled threats targeting Chișinău, calling on the Moldovan leadership to negotiate with Moscow.
Against this backdrop, president Maia Sandu went to Comrat to tell the Găgăuz people that Chișinău authorities consider ATUG an integral part of the Republic of Moldova and take no actions against them, as some pro-Russian politicians in ATUG as well as pro-Russian propaganda claim.
“Keeping the peace is the primordial goal for all of us. And we will do everything in our power to achieve this goal. It is important for all citizens of the Republic of Moldova to prevent any attempt at causing chaos in Moldova, at dividing citizens based on national, ethnic or territorial criteria. We should not allow anyone to make us regard each other with suspicion and mistrust. Some people in this country refuse to take responsibility for their larceny, anarchy and corruption, and therefore they seek to create chaos. But do our fellow citizens in Comrat, Bălți, Chișinău, Taraclia or Nisporeni actually want this? Of course not! The slogan of the overwhelming majority of the citizens of Moldova is peace and harmony! We are Moldova, each and every one of us. We all are a single country”, Maia Sandu told the students of the University of Comrat.
Pro-Russian politicians, starting with the Bashkan of Găgăuzia, Irina Vlah, have tried to sabotage Maia Sandu’s visit and the pacifist messages the Moldovan president delivered. While addressing the People’s Assembly (the Parliament of ATUG), Maia Sandu told representatives that she disagrees with the Russian war in Ukraine and nothing can change her mind about that.
Maia Sandu’s decision to walk into a possible hotbed of separatism had a twofold meaning. At national level, it showed a determined president who is not afraid to go and talk to troublemakers, while at local level her visit was designed to somewhat ease tensions in Comrat.
Therefore, the upcoming autumn looks ridden with challenges for Moldova, and Russia will be the main disrupting factor, taking action to undermine the government from both inside and outside the country, by applying those “pressure points” that the Republic of Moldova is still unable to manage. It will take skill from pro-European Moldovan politicians in order to anticipate and counter such actions in advance.
