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The government says that the referendum on EU accession will clearly show the population's options. However, some see the public consultation set for fall as an electoral maneuver that could backfire against its initiators.
Maia Sandu announces the referendum and a new candidacy for the presidential elections. Parliament changes the Electoral Code so that they can be organized simultaneously
The President of the Republic of Moldova Maia Sandu announced, at the end of last year, her intention to organize a referendum on the European integration of the country. The referendum would take place in the fall of this year. The initiative was launched against the background of the European Council's decision of December 14, 2023 to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova.
"In 3 years of office, we have managed to maintain peace at home, strengthen the country's independence, govern with the people and open negotiations for Moldova's accession to the European Union. Our future is in the European family and it is necessary for all of us, the whole country, to clearly state which path we choose for Moldova. I call on Parliament to initiate the organization of a referendum in the fall, where the voice of the citizens should be decisive”, said Maia Sandu in a statement on December 24, 2023.
In the same statement, President Sandu also announced her intention to run for a new presidential term in the election that will also take place in the fall.
At the time when Maia Sandu asked the Chisinau Legislature to organize the referendum on the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union, the Moldovan legislation didn’t allow the organization of referendums simultaneously with elections of any kind. Four days later, however, on December 28, the Moldovan Parliament, controlled by the Action and Solidarity Party, founded by Maia Sandu, amended the Electoral Code so that national referendums could be organized on the same day as parliamentary, presidential or local elections. Most likely, the referendum on the issue of European integration would take place simultaneously with the presidential elections.
According to the president of the Moldovan Parliament, Igor Grosu, the referendum will put an end to speculations about the geopolitical choice of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova .
"This proposal to organize a referendum had been set forth before by representatives of the opposition. /…/ I think that this exercise will put an end to speculations about whether or not the Moldovans want to join the European Union. I am convinced that Moldovans want to be part of this European family, of a space of peace and well-being. It's a market of 500 million consumers, clear rules, no one blackmails you claiming they don't like your wine or apple," said Igor Grosu, alluding to the embargoes previously imposed by Russia on Moldovan wines and fruits.
Analysts: the referendum, a tactical maneuver aimed at the elections. What the initiators risk
Political analyst Anatol Țăranu believes that the initiative regarding the organization, under the current conditions, of a referendum on EU accession is ” a step taken in the wrong direction”:
"The initiation of a pro-European constitutional referendum in a state with an impoverished population, where nostalgia for the Soviet past is strong, and national minorities do not integrate into the cultural community of the majority, took many people by surprise. It is known that the numerous Soviet nostalgics are the captive electorate of the pro-Russian and anti-European parties in the Republic of Moldova. Namely, these political forces specialize in exploiting the frustrations and fears of Moldovan voters caused by poverty and insecurity about the future, cultivating their ignorance and anti-Westernism in various forms. Supported materially, politically and informationally by Moscow, this kind of Moldovan politicians will make the most of the opportunity created by the referendum to promote their political agenda, with the major goal of compromising the European course of development of the Republic of Moldova", Anatol Țăranu believes.
The analyst also drew attention to the fact that the initiative could have an effect contrary to the one planned and lead to the demobilization of the pro-European electorate if it would appear to them that the referendum was, in fact, organized to promote the electoral interests of PAS. In such a scenario, the majority of those going to the polls might choose "no".
The political commentator Ion Tăbârță has also pointed out that the opposition - both the Socialists and the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, suspected of involvement in a Russian plan to overthrow the power in Chisinau - demanded the organization of a referendum on joining the European Union. These requests that Ion Tăbârță mentions start from the thesis, promoted by Russian and pro-Russian propaganda, that Moldovans would not, in fact, want European integration and prefer a rapprochement with Russia, the so-called "eastern vector".
Ion Tăbârță warns that the referendum poses risks and may backfire against its initiators:
"If those who come to this referendum vote favorably, saying yes to accession, then the pro-European party, the European forces in the Republic of Moldova, will offer a serious argument to the left that is contesting the European course and claims that the majority of the population would not have wanted to take a European path. On the other hand, there are certain risks, if we look at the referendums of the past, which were not successful. A potential negative vote would practically render useless all the discussions about the European course of the Republic of Moldova. What do we do? We are starting accession negotiations, but at the same time, we have a negative vote from the population. As a rule, such exercises were carried out in most of the states that joined the European Union, but this was done at the time close to the accession proper, after a series of negotiations, when the European course had brought palpable results for those societies. Now we will see. It is an initiative that can bring political risks and costs. The chance of success of the referendum increases if it takes place at the same time as the presidential elections. If there were a separate referendum, then it would greatly increase the risk of a failure, through a poor turnout, as it happened in 2010 when we had the problem related to the election of the head of state...".
The optimistic scenario: voters vote pro-EU and definitively place the Republic of Moldova on the "western vector"
Political analyst Nicolae Negru believes that the referendum bet could be a winning one, on the one hand because it would clearly show that the majority of the population is pro-European, on the other hand because the pre-referendum campaign will show that, in fact, there are no valid arguments for choosing the "eastern vector": he believes that the referendum is a tactical move aimed at the presidential election. He warns, however, that Maia Sandu should cooperate with all pro-European parties, in order to obtain the best possible vote in the referendum.
"This means that Maia Sandu is sure the outcome will be a positive one; otherwise she would not have come up with this idea. It is clear that it is a tactical move, related to the presidential elections next year. It is probably intended to encourage the voters to go to the elections all together, and probably she believes (as I myself belive) that it’s a good idea to have this discussion in society, to organize of a debate on this geo-political, strategic topic: where to go, in which direction, as Maia Sandu said, the Republic of Moldova should move towards the European Union or towards Russia? It would be interesting to listen to the arguments of the pro-Russian politicians, how they will claim that we must integrate into the Eurasian Union, which does not exist, the CIS is also on its deathbed, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization also ", said Nicolae Negru.
The former president of the Constitutional Court, Alexandru Tănase, also believes that the referendum on European integration will allow the citizens of the Republic of Moldova to break a vicious circle that has lasted for several hundred of years and firmly place the country in the family of European democracies:
"I don't see a problem in requesting the opinion, in consulting society on matters that are not just major, but of vital importance for our society. We must understand that, in fact, now that we are talking about European integration, we have an option in front of us that would allow us to break a vicious circle that has lasted for several hundreds of years […]. History, unfortunately, has always left us on the other side of the border, and that has always created dramas, triggered denationalizations, deportations, poverty and misery".
The hybrid war will change the conditions under which the referendum would take place
Almost all surveys carried out in recent years in the Republic of Moldova show that the majority of citizens would vote for joining the European Union if a referendum were held in this regard. These polls, as a rule, do not reflect the option of those from the diaspora, which means that the support for the EU is, theoretically, even higher, given that the majority of Moldovans who have left the country are now working in the West and it is assumed that they would also vote for joining the community space.
However, the authorities should consider the fact that both the referendum and the presidential elections will take place in the conditions of an unprecedented hybrid war that Russia is waging and will continue to wage against the pro-European forces in the Republic of Moldova. This means, first of all, that the current power will have to deal with an increasingly fierce onslaught of propaganda mixed with disinformation coming from Moscow to compromise the referendum. Therefore, the authorities should have as effective a communication as possible with society in order to debunk the fake news and false narratives that will come from Moscow and the pro-Russian forces inside the Republic of Moldova. However, precisely communication has been one of the weakest points of the current power until now.
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