As Muslims of the world celebrated Eid ul-Adha, Turkey's President used the first two days of this important holyday to pay an official visit to Northern Cyprus. The visit marked the 47th anniversary of the Turkish invasion of the island and the authorities in Ankara prepared well the event. The numerous media outlets controlled by the regime presented the visit as symbolising the historical "brotherhood and unity" of Turks in Turkey and the island. President Erdoğan used this expression insistently in his speech addressing the parliament of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), on July 19. In the same instance, he also finally announced the "good news" that the Turkish media had beaten the drums about for days before the visit.
The news is that Ankara will pay for the building of a new governmental complex that is planned to include a new parliament, a new presidential palace and a park that Mr. Erdoğan described as a "national garden". In his own words, "this is the expression of statehood" for Northern Cyprus that the world will "sooner or later" recognise.
The project of Cypriot unity abandoned
In October 2020, Ersin Tatar was inaugurated as the new President of the TRNC after elections in which he won against Mustafa Akıncı, the former President and a more moderate politician from the Communal Democracy Party. Tatar is a conservative politician from the National Unity Party (NUP) and enjoyed massive support from Ankara in the presidential elections. A London-educated economist, Mr. Tatar became the NUP leader in 2018 and his public discourse and actions are in line with Ankara's current policy regarding the "Cyprus issue". While former President Akıncı militated for the reunification of the island as a federation of two, politically equal communities, with international support, Tatar won the 2020 presidential elections with the message that the federal formula is no longer feasible, supporting instead the two-state solution. In other words, for Ankara and the current President of the TRNC, the reunification of Cyprus is off the agenda and, instead, two independent and sovereign states, Turkish and Greek, should be established and recognized by the international community. And the international community refuses to support this Turkish proposal.
In the common press conference on July 20, Presidents Erdoğan and Tatar spoke of the past and future. After expressing disappointment about failed attempts at reunification in the past, the leader from Ankara was crystal clear about his intentions: "A new negotiation process (to heal Cyprus' division) can only be carried out between the two states. We are right and we will defend our right to the end."
Turkish frustrations and Greek maneuvers
Frustrations on the Turkish side are not unjustified. The Turkish invasion back in July 1974 was triggered by a Greek Cypriot coup only five days earlier, when a military junta installed Nikos Sampson, a staunch supporter of union (enosis) with Greece, as president. Repeated attempts at reunifying the country were undermined by unfortunate moves by both sides and the TRNC was eventually founded in 1983. Population displacements, in particular, led to serious problems regarding property rights, which remain at the heart of efforts toward conciliation and conflict resolution.
The latest major plan for reunification, proposed by then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2004 and supported by the guaranteeing powers, ended in complete failure and left wounds in the collective memory of all Turks. It was subjected to a referendum in April 2004 and, although supported by 65 per cent of Turkish Cypriots, it was rejected by almost two thirds of the Greek Cypriots.
Had majorities on both sides approved it, the referendum would have legitimized the creation of a united Cyprus Republic consisting of two constituent states, Greek and Turkish, under a federal government. Property rights would have been gradually restored and a lasting peace could have been guaranteed by the new state joining the European Union (EU) only one month later, in May 2004. Lacking a plan B, the EU allowed for the "entire island" to join the Union although it was still divided and full rights of membership now apply only to the Greek side. As a Member State, (Greek) Cyprus enjoys important leverage in the EU's decision-making and has systematically vetoed steps toward establishing direct economic ties with the TRNC and Turkey's membership negotiations with Brussels. It was precisely this unfortunate attitude that, along with other factors, nourished the Turkish nationalism that is now dominant in Ankara and Northern Cyprus.
Reinvigorated pan-Turkism?
Mr. Erdoğan's move last week therefore builds on an old and long list of Turkish frustrations and his insistence on brotherhood and unity means something especially for the nationalists at home and on the island. It is an open secret that, probably worried by the poor economic performance of his country, the leader in Ankara does whatever he can to strengthen the nationalist base of his political alliance in view of parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled in 2023. After the failure of the so-called "Kurdish peace process" back in 2015 and the subsequent nationalist turn of the regime, the "Cyprus issue" may become central for the next electoral campaign. However, in my opinion, the Turkish President's visit to the TRNC may represent a decisive game changer at more profound levels.
Although Turkey remains at the moment the only country that recognizes the TRNC's sovereign statehood, things may change in the near future and the sequence of events suggest that the regime in Ankara works according to detailed plans. Strong cooperation over the last years between Turkey and Pakistan, including significant exchanges of military technologies, may encourage Islamabad to gradually adjust its policy concerning the Cyprus issue. A tweet by the Pakistani Embassy in Ankara on July 10 announced that their consular team was to pay a 3-day visit, between July 11 and 13, to the TRNC. A staunchly nationalist and pro-government media outlet in Turkey interpreted this unprecedented move as "a significant step towards Islamabad recognizing Northern Cyprus".
Only a few days later, the TRNC was visited for the first time by a parliamentary delegation from Azerbaijan. Anadolu Agency, an important actor in the current regime's propaganda machine included in the respective piece of news a declaration by the TRNC President Tatar saying, "As one nation, three states, we are all of Turkish descent". Declarations from the Azerbaijani side were even more telling and worth citing extensively: "Turkey's power is the power of Azerbaijan. It is the power of the TRNC. [...] We are one nation, two states, and the third is here now. [...] This is our land. The Turkic world has Turkey, the Turkic world has Azerbaijan, the Turkic world has Northern Cyprus. [...] We want Northern Cyprus to be strong. The Turkish world will rise. For this, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Northern Cyprus must be together". Turkey's decisive military and political support for Baku in its conflict with Armenia seems to pay off. And an earlier report by the same Anadolu Agency, in April 2021, suggested that Tatar's insistence on the two-state solution might have convinced even some British ministers to consider recognizing the sovereignty of the TRNC.
The political weight of a ghost town
It remains to be seen whether these moves will lead in the end to the alignment of the respective countries to the Turkish cause. If that happens, it would not be a surprise to see other countries and international organizations following suit. And, despite the serious economic and financial crisis that Turkey seems incapable of overcoming, its current regime will definitely capitalise on the Cyprus issue to survive. As it happened so many times before, nationalism is always a winning card in Turkish politics and the Cyprus issue fits perfectly in a strategy for electoral success in 2023. And the trap is also set for Western actors to fall in.
As a culmination of his visit to Northern Cyprus, Mr. Erdoğan used the opportunity of the official press conference with TRCN President Tatar to announce yet another provocative plan: the continuation of efforts toward the reopening for the public of the old resort town of Maraş (Varosha in Greek). Situated in the no-man's land and fenced off since 1974, Maraş was opened partially by the decision of Mr. Tatar right after his election in October 2020. Both leaders promised on July 20 that property rights of the original inhabitants of the town would be reinstated, but this may turn out to be a massive trap. All willing to regain their property rights, including Greek Cypriot people and institutions that owned properties in Maraş/Varosha before 1974 would have to apply to the Immovable Property Commission of the TRNC. This, in turn, may become an important step toward the formal recognition by Greek Cypriot entities of a TRNC institution and, in effect, of that state as a whole.
Greek, Greek Cypriot, EU, US and UK officials reacted immediately. All warned that the Turkish moves on the Maraş/Varoşa issue are dangerous and could increase tensions on the island. Ankara's response was also swift and indicated its determination to pursue the agenda announced by President Erdoğan. Targeting specifically the EU statement on the issue, the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Tanju Bilgiç, declared that the respective criticism is "null and void" for Turkey and invited the EU to "see the reality in Cyprus".
The Turks are ready for action
One current reality in Cyprus is that the Turks are, indeed, excluded from the decision-making mechanisms, including in relation with revenues from the gas and oil reserves around the island. While those reserves were not accessible with technologies of the year 1974, the situation is different now. Turkish aggressive exploration in Eastern Mediterranean, although contained at the moment, could continue and the sovereign statehood of the TRNC would be of enormous help to Turkey in this context.
The other reality is that Ankara, following the electoral win of Ersin Tatar in October 2020, clearly holds the reins and calls the shots in Northern Cypriot politics for the first time since the foundation of the TRNC back in 1983. It is on the basis of these two aspects that all actors involved and/or having vested interests in the "Cyprus issue" should make future calculations. All those actors should take into account in particular the warning from President Erdoğan that resonates the most with old mantras of Turkish nationalism: they do not have another 50 years to waste. Back in Ankara, Mr. Erdoğan addressed all Turkish Muslims in a video message cellebrating the Eid. The key sentences ar as follows: ”the only wish of Turkish Cypriots is that their sovereign status be recognised. [...] All other offers and proposals are not valid anymore.” This message, issued on the occasion of a major Muslim cellebration, sounds more like and ultimatum and the crucial implication is that the Turks are ready for action, even if that means fighting the entire rest of the world.
