In early December, an Estonian court found Allan Hantsom, an Estonian resident, guilty of organizing attacks on the cars of Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets and the editor-in-chief of Rus.Delfi, the largest Russian-language news portal in the country, Andrei Šumakov, on orders from the GRU.
The windows of both cars were smashed a year ago, on the night of December 8. Within two months, the state prosecutor announced the arrest of ten individuals suspected of committing crimes in Estonia on orders from Russian authorities. Among them were those linked to the mentioned attacks.
Russia has been employing in Estonia intimidation tactics that are part of its military doctrine
In April, the involvement of Russian special services in the case was reiterated in the Security Police's (KaPo) annual report. It highlighted that, in addition to the car attacks on public figures, the perpetrators were instructed to damage the Sinimäe memorial, erected to commemorate World War II battles, and a bas-relief honoring Estonian military figure and SS Standartenführer Alfons Rebane in Viljandi region. According to KaPo, the vandals were recruited through social media.
"The hired perpetrators, disguising their actions as ordinary criminal activities, attempted to sow chaos and fear in Estonian society and generate public attention. However, they were largely unsuccessful”, stated the authors of the KaPo annual report in the chapter titled "Hybrid Operations as an Intimidation Tactic“.
Not everyone agreed with this interpretation. Members of parliament from the opposition far-right EKRE party raised questions about the presence of Russian involvement in this case. They demanded further details from minister Läänemets regarding the investigation. MP Jaak Valge pointed out in a parliamentary session that the editor's car actually belonged to his wife. Valge called for an explanation as to why the Criminal Police, Security Police, the Ministry of the Interior, and the minister himself withheld this information from the public.
In response, Läänemets noted that Šumakov's wife, Darja Saar, is also a journalist, making the free press a target for the perpetrators. Saar indeed had previously headed the Russian-language ETV+ television channel at Estonian Public Broadcasting but has not been involved in journalism for several years.
Despite such debates, the case did not generate significant public outcry. The investigation continued, and in December, the court convicted 7 out of 9 defendants. According to the Estonian prosecutor's office, two of them are currently in the Russian Federation and have been placed on an international wanted list.
Three Russian-speaking perpetrators were found guilty of intelligence activities against the Republic of Estonia, while four others were convicted of property damage. Notably, the attackers were unaware of the car owners' identities, and the promised payment from Russia was never received.
Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets welcomed the court's decision, stating that the goal of such actions is to undermine the sense of security and thereby reduce the political will and determination to keep Estonia outside Russia's sphere of influence. This includes instilling fear in people who boldly criticize Russia's aggression in Ukraine or its interference in the domestic politics and elections of neighboring countries.
"Such non-military attacks are part of Russia's military doctrine, which clearly aims at the social and political destabilization of target countries. By exerting influence, they undermine the sense of security and attempt to incite anti-government sentiments in people through disinformation, propaganda, and conspiracy theories. The broader goal is to undermine public trust in politicians and state institutions to influence domestic politics and election results in a way favorable to Russia – as has been done in Georgia, Moldova, and Romania" said Minister Läänemets.
Russia is trying to use to its advantage Estonia’s Russian speakers, but Moscow’s capacity to organize attacks seems limited, for now
Journalist Andrei Šumakov said that he did not find the incident frightening. "I still consider Estonia an incredibly safe country – both compared to other European countries I often visit and compared to the industrial Chelyabinsk of the 1990s, where I grew up", Šumakov told Veridica.
He said he has no idea why his family property was specifically targeted. "Of course, we serve democracy (it's even written on the wall in our office kitchen as a motto), and this might irritate those who support the Kremlin and Putin. But many other Russian-speaking Estonian media outlets also uphold democratic values. So, in this sense, I don’t see how I differ from the editors of Delovye Vedomosti or RUS.ERR”, he said.
Šumakov speculated that the issue might lie in his citizenship: "I hold a Russian passport, and I cannot yet become an Estonian citizen because I haven’t lived in the country long enough. A Russian citizen in such a position might stand out. But that’s just a hypothesis – my own”. At the same time, Šumakov has faced criticism from more radically pro-Estonian public figures for his softer stance on the Russian-speaking population. For instance, he has opposed stripping non-citizens of their voting rights in local elections.
In Šumakov's opinion, Russian influence in Estonia should not be overestimated. "Fortunately, despite its proximity to St. Petersburg, Estonia remains somewhat peripheral to Russian propaganda. Russia has internal goals, and if we talk about external ones, Moldova and Georgia are far more 'lucky' in this regard than Estonia. I don’t see any particularly large-scale Russian activity here”, he noted.
He acknowledged that a certain percentage of the Russian-speaking population still watches Russian TV, but the exact figure is unknown. "Therefore, we don’t have Kremlin influence agents in politics (unlike Moldova or Georgia). The political careers of Koos leaders Aivo Peterson and Oleg Ivanov have effectively ended”, he concluded.
The leaders of the party that prompted constitutional amendments stripping Russian citizens of the right to vote in Estonian municipal elections are indeed leaving the political scene. Aivo Peterson is in prison on charges of treason, while Oleg Ivanov fled to Russia and, in mid-December, announced to his supporters there that he was leaving the party.
"Right-wing Estonian politicians and columnists occasionally bring up the idea that 75% of Russian citizens living in Estonia voted for Putin in the 'presidential elections,' but that's not true”, Šumakov says. "Around 1,800 people in Estonia voted for Putin out of roughly 80,000 Russians residing here. What broad support are we talking about?"
He points out that the former head of Estonia’s Security Police, Arnold Sinisalu, stated in an interview with Delfi that the level of support for Kremlin activities among Russian speakers is about 20%. According to Šumakov, against this backdrop, the government's desire to strip Russian citizens permanently residing in Estonia of their local voting rights appears to be an untimely and foolish decision.
As for Russian "intimidation actions”, they remain relatively toothless for now, in the journalist's view. "If we talk about the actions involving my car, our colleagues at Eesti Ekspress conducted an investigation and tried to sign up as operatives of an 'invisible front' tasked with making Molotov cocktails and sabotaging NATO vehicles. Fortunately, they found that the budgets of Russian security forces are also limited, the money promised to executors is tiny (and unlikely to arrive at all), and the risks are very high. But that's the current situation – what it will look like in the coming years is hard to say”, he concludes.
