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The Wagner revolt came as a confirmation of the fact that Moldova must distance itself from the Eurasian space, officials in Chisinau believe. The Wagner mercenaries were also involved in an attempt to destabilize Moldova.
"It is more important than ever to move away from the Eurasian space of destruction and war"
The Chisinau authorities reacted promptly to the events that took place in Russia on June 24 and once again reconfirmed their intention to distance themselves as much as possible from the Eurasian space controlled by Moscow.
“We are all witnesses of the events taking place in Russia, and they remind us, once again, that in order to preserve peace, stability and democracy in our country, it is important to continue the path of accession to the European Union [...] It is more important than ever to move away from the Eurasian space of destruction and war. In Moldova, no one needs war and division, regardless of ethnicity or spoken language, be it Romanian, Russian, Gagauz, Ukrainian or Bulgarian, etc. Therefore, we have only one chance to keep peace in our country, to progress and develop, and that is to continue on the European path of our country. Only in the EU can we preserve peace, respect for cultural diversity and human rights and freedoms. Today, regardless of our political or geopolitical preferences - it is imperative that we remain united against the war and act together to bring the Republic of Moldova into the European Union”, wrote the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, on his Facebook page, on the day when the rebellion took place.
Prigozhin's revolt reminded some of the August 1991 coup, staged by a group of ultra-conservatives in the Soviet elite who tried to oust Mikhail Gorbachev from power and thus put an end to his reforms. The 1991 coup was watched with bated breath especially in the former Soviet space, where all the freedoms gained in recent years could be erased overnight. There are obviously differences from the uprising of the Soviet generals: Putin is not a reformist like Gorbachev was, and the population did not mobilize against Prigozhin, as it mobilized in 1991, with Boris Yeltsin at the head, against the putschists. There are some common aspects, however, the shock is comparable and the question arises, as the president of the Parliamentary Committee for National Security, Defense and Public Order, Lilian Carp, noticed, what will happen to Vladimir Putin's Russia. Ultimately, even if it failed, the 1991 coup dealt a decisive blow to Gorbachev, who would lose power just months later when the Soviet Union collapsed.
One thing is certain: the Wagner uprising has greatly affected the image of the Kremlin leader, both inside and outside Russia. Even the leaders of states like India or China, who have maintained the same collaborative relations with Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine, will be much more cautious in their relationship with the Russian Federation from now on. Even more so a state like the Republic of Moldova, which the current power in Chisinau is trying to remove from Moscow's orbit and integrate it into the Western world.
The Republic of Moldova could soon decide to leave the CIS
The President of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Grosu, stated after the end of Evgeni Prigozhin's revolt that Chisinau's relations with Russia are currently “very, very damaged”. “We cannot talk about good relations with an aggressor state, which is destroying our neighboring state Ukraine and defies all internal norms. We see an aggressive rhetoric in relation to the Republic of Moldova, we see orchestrated campaigns supported by this state and in relation to organized criminal groups”, Igor Grosu said on a TV show .
He stressed that recently, Russia has become much more aggressive, especially after the Republic of Moldova obtained the status of a candidate country for EU accession, and that the Kremlin regime is afraid of such countries as the Republic of Moldova, which are budding democracies. “They consider them contagious for their own citizens”, Igor Grosu said. The Russian Federation, in his opinion, can no longer be called a friend of the Republic of Moldova.
“[...] The best thing Russia can do now is to withdraw its army and stop killing civilians, destroying cities, and villages. In the winter we saw energy blackmail, we became more resistant, we saw embargoes, propaganda, disinformation - all these things cannot lead to an atmosphere of friendship. All the statements we hear are an imperial, harsh, cynical policy, disrespectful towards a budding democracy like the Republic of Moldova. The Russian Federation considers such countries contagious for its own citizens. [...]”.
Igor Grosu also said that the Republic of Moldova cannot be associated with a country that “exports violence, death, destroys cities” and said that the Parliament in Chisinau, in the current session, will make a decision to exit the “agreement with the CIS” – but not before making sure that there are bilateral agreements signed with each member of the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Igor Grosu said that “Russia's aggression and barbarism” only strengthened Moldovan citizens’ pro-European option, an option also expressed in the 2021 elections.
Indeed, polls in recent years consistently show that over 50% of Moldovan citizens are in favor of the Republic of Moldova's accession to the European Union. For example, a survey carried out in June of this year by the sociological company CBS-Reaserch, commissioned by the non-governmental organization WatchDog, shows that almost 59% of respondents opt for the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU. However, the number of those who want to join the Eurasian Economic Union, controlled by Russia, remains high - about 39%. It is true, these figures only reflect the options of permanent residents on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, not those of the diaspora. Taking into account the fact that approximately one-third of Moldovan citizens are currently abroad, mainly in EU states, the USA and Canada, where Russian propaganda is not so strong, the ratio could increase considerably in favor of the pro-European option if the diaspora’s option were considered as well.
The Wagner Group, involved in attempts to destabilize the Republic of Moldova
The revolt of the Wagner group could lead to an even greater increase in the percentage of pro-Europeans, convincing some skeptics that the proximity to Moscow does not offer any security to the Republic of Moldova and that joining the European Union is the only valid option.
In fact, in Chisinau questions concerning Wagner arose even before the revolt of June 24. At the beginning of March, the police announced that an alleged representative of the company was prevented from entering the Republic of Moldova. This was happening on the eve of the large-scale anti-government demonstrations organized by the Shor Party on March 12. We do not know exactly what the role of this alleged Wagner mercenary was going to be in those protests, but it seems that he was not alone: 182 foreign citizens were banned from entering the Republic of Moldova in those days. Another figure linked to the Wagner group is on the list of the seven Russian “operative agents” sanctioned by the US for a “campaign to destabilize” the Republic of Moldova.
The government in Washington did not give many details about the seven Russian agents involved in attempts to destabilize the Republic of Moldova, but at least one of them, Vasili Gromovikov, seems to have connections with the leader of the Wagner mercenaries . Gromovikov is originally from Saint Petersburg and was allegedly involved in several “dirty” campaigns believed to have been masterminded by Yevgeny Prigozhin. The sanctioned Russian citizens would have been involved in a plan which stipulated that, against the backdrop of the protests in Chisinau, the government headquarters was to be captured. Several of them would “maintain ties with Russian intelligence services in matters such as planning, staffing and budgeting of the group's activities”. Vasili Gromovikov was allegedly involved in the financing of the plan.
So, here are just two cases in which people affiliated with the Wagner group, together with representatives of other Russian secret structures, appear involved in attempts to destabilize the Republic of Moldova and hijack its European course.
It is unlikely that the armed rebellion organized by Yevgeni Prigozhin, which ultimately failed, as well as a possible dissolution of the “Wagner” company or a considerable diminution of its influence, will have any impact on Moscow's attempts to further divert the European course of the Republic of Moldova. Russia will probably call on other structures it controls to continue its subversive actions in Chisinau and to prevent the Republic of Moldova from approaching the European Union and the United States in every way.
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