Netanyahu, between the hammer and the anvil

Netanyahu, between the hammer and the anvil
© EPA-EFE/ABIR SULTAN   |   Protesters with placards of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu with Hebrew slogan 'We will not forget, we will not forgive' during a march against government's justice system reform plans in Tel Aviv, Israel, 25 March 2023. tr

I do not recall, in the history of the last 20 years, to have seen Israel going through such a tumultuous period as now. For too long, the silent majority in the Holy Land has allowed the Netanyahu administrations, almost uninterrupted for the past 18 years, to erode the democratic system and jeopardize the chances of peace with the Palestinians. But the apathy seems to have ended with the beginning of the year, when for the first time in the country's history, hundreds of thousands of people from all walks of life, including reservists of the Tzahal, the Israel Defense Forces, took to the streets to stop the justice reform that the Netanyahu government considers necessary, while the opposition and most Israelis see it as a danger to the country's democratic institutions.

It is something new and hard to digest even for a politician like Bibi, who is a master of manipulation, but has now surrounded himself by extremist figures who, under the cover of Netanyahu's popularity and using government stability as blackmail, come up with projects that sow discord in an area which, “by default”, has never been one of peace. So, in the face of increasingly violent protests, with the strained relationship with the Palestinians reaching incandescent levels, Netanyahu takes a half step back and postpones the adoption of the justice laws until after Passover.

Justice reform or system subordination?

It is good to know that Israel, like Great Britain or Canada, has a CUSTOMARY CONSTITUTION. That is, we are talking about practices, precedents and customs regarding the setting up, competences and functioning of the bodies of power that have the force of law. The customary part is completed by the special laws that regulate the functioning of the respective bodies, such as the government law, adopted by the Knesset although, in the streets, tens of thousands of people were demanding the opposite. The new government law reduces, for example, the number of situations in which a government and/or prime minister would have to resign. Another law concerns the functioning of the Supreme Court of Israel, and another the Judicial Selection Committee. Under the current legislation, the Committee includes three Supreme Court judges, two representatives of the Bar, two government ministers and two members of Parliament, one of whom is often from the opposition. To select Supreme Court judges with the required majority of seven generally requires a consensus among the five legal professionals and four politicians.

The government wants to change this composition of the Committee by giving government representatives and appointees an automatic majority on the committee, effectively allowing the government to choose the judges.

Another target is the Supreme Court, whose prerogatives would be limited by the most right-wing and religiously conservative government in Israel's history. In other words, the bill aims to drastically curtail the Court's ability to overturn laws passed by parliament (Knesset) that it deems unconstitutional. Such a decision would leave the Supreme Court without any power, which would otherwise be transferred to the hands of the government. And here is the explanation of the slogans about the coup d'état and the deviation to dictatorship of the Jewish state.

That also means that a simple majority of 61 out of the 120 Knesset MPs could delay court decisions and eliminate the Supreme Court's ability to overturn government decisions or appointments. If the law had passed and the Court would no longer have this prerogative, then Arieh Deri, one of the most controversial ministers in the Netanyahu 6 cabinet, would have remained in the position of interior minister. Netanyahu had no choice but fire his executive number two in January after the Supreme Court invalidated the appointment of Arieh Deri, who was convicted of tax fraud. In fact, critics of this reform say that Netanyahu, himself under investigation in a corruption case, will use all these changes to get away with it. It is hard to believe, however, that Netanyahu could end up behind bars even for a single day. Basically, Bibi's battle with the judiciary, which accuses him of bribery, fraud and abuse of trust, has been going on for several years. Netanyahu denies the allegations, but only the court will have the final say.

Snap elections, a solution that would help Netanyahu break the deadlock and reconcile the reservists

It is clear that the present time has thrown Netanyahu into a deadlock. His political career is at stake. He is in the middle between the demonstrators who are continuously demanding to stop the reform for which they hold him responsible and the increasingly vocal coalition partners who want to do, each, what they promised to do in the campaign and even more, if they could. There are also the increasingly violent clashes with the Palestinians, the attacks that make Bibi's Israel no longer so safe and, of course, the waves that Iran is making through its tentacles in the region (in Syria, where it helped the regime survive with the Shiite militias it mobilized also directly through its Quds force and in Lebanon through Hezbollah)

Benjamin Netanyahu is now forced to deal with all that, as it is probably for the first time since he came at the helm of Israeli politics that he does not fully control his own cabinet. Adding to that is the fact that the hypothesis that the Mossad would have helped the demonstrators in Israel has been circulated by the media.  The source of this assumption is the American intelligence services. A Pentagon report with these conclusions reached the press. Journalists in Israel claim, however, that it is a confusion because under the leadership of the head of the Mossad, David Barnea, employees of the secret services as well as those of the army were allowed to participate in the demonstrations in their capacity as Israeli citizens. The Shin Beth did not allow this. Let's say that the document leaked to the mass media is authentic, but who would benefit from this document appearing just now?

The Jerusalem Post claims to have several leads that would prove that the Americans’ conclusions are wrong and used either as disinformation or to create confusion.

The Israeli press has written in recent months about the virulent criticism of former Mossad chiefs targeting Netanyahu. Tamir Pardo has repeatedly asked him to resign So, it's no secret to anyone that Netanyahu, through the alliance that supports him in the government, has turned some of his services hostile. However, returning to the information that gave rise to heated debates, it would be good to analyze who would be interested in such a hypothesis being circulated, even though it would not be in the Mossad's area of ​​interest?

That's all Netanyahu needed now. How could he get out of this whole business unscathed? As he has done so many times, only now it is absolutely necessary: ​​through snap elections. He will let this government down for another month or two, after which the coalition will break. I would not have advanced this hypothesis if a survey had not appeared on Netanyahu's Facebook page that caught my attention.

In terms of trust, Bibi has 47 percent, followed by Benny Gantz, with 31 percent, and Yair Lapid in third place with 15 percent. What does the overall ranking of the parties look like? The parties of the top three leaders followed by the religious parties and the eternal Avigdor Lieberman. The little ones who crossed the threshold of 3.25 percent in the last elections, are now within the margin of error.

Until then, however, the postponement of judicial reform does nothing more than give the government and Netanyahu in particular a breather, as they must find a way to reconcile with the army veterans who threaten that if the laws are passed further they will refuse to show up at their military units when called.  And as the stars of the Middle East show, the calls will come.

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