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The relocation of Wagner forces to Belarus following Prigozhin’s aborted rebellion proved to be a propaganda move. Within a year, Lukashenko’s Wagner army, brandished as a threat to neighboring NATO countries, virtually melted away. It also failed to help Lukashenko achieve his objective of foraying into the lucrative mercenary business in Africa.
Did Lukashenko secretly support Prigozhin? The rumor started by Minsk’s initial reaction to the Wagner rebellion
The story of Wagner troops in Belarus began on June 24, 2023, when according to the official information, Aleksandr Lukashenko stepped in as a mediator in the negotiations between the head of the Wagner Group rebellion Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian president Vladimir Putin. At that moment, rebel Wagner forces had already captured Rostov-on-Don, the Headquarters of the Southern Military District of Russia and were about 300 km away from Moscow, approaching fast. It was reported that, following Lukashenko’s intervention, Prigozhin agreed to put an end to the rebellion and move his fighters to Belarus, while Putin promised not to pursuit the “traitors”.
However, there were rumors that Lukashenko knew about Prigozhin’s plans and supported the rebellion hoping to become, after its success, the formal head of “the Union state of Russia and Belarus” – the yet to be formed confederation of the two countries. On paper, the Union was established back in 1999, but ever since it failed to take off.
The rumor would explain the total silence of the Lukashenko regime propaganda in the first hours of the rebellion. It was only in the afternoon of June 24, 2023 – that is nearly 24 hours after Prigozhin’s call to arms – that the Security Council of Lukashenko regime came up with an official statement regarding the situation. Further adding fuel to the rumors, the statement was vague, refraining from taking sides. No names were mentioned, nobody was blamed, it was only stated that “Belarusian people have always been and will be with Russia”: “We call for a voice of reason. In this difficult time, everyone who is today involved in an unacceptable confrontation within a military brotherhood united in its goals is needed where the future of the Slavic world, the fate of millions of our people, is being decided”. Later, the regime propaganda started to push the narrative about Lukashenko’s involvement as a top-notch peacemaker.
From the perspective of this rumor – or, for that matter, even if one merely considers how long it took for Minsk to react and the vagueness of the Security Council statement – the deployment of the rebel troops to Belarus could have been a punishment for Lukashenko for his position. While the most profitable and professional part of Wagner has been operating in Africa and the Middle East, the troops having taken part in the rebellion aren’t the best professionals, to put it mildly. So Putin just could have sent this “distressed asset” to Lukashenko: “You have supported them, so deal with them now”. The other part of Wagner troops, earning significant money for the Kremlin overseas, were left under its control, and general and deputy minister of defense Yunus-bek Yevkurov was put in charge of this structure.
Lukashenko wanted to use Wagner for his failed African adventure
A camp for the Wagner troops was set up in just a couple of days near the village of Cel, Asipovičy district in Belarus – almost in the centre of the country. Originally, it should have been able to host around 15 thousand troops. However, the number of mercenaries never exceeded 10 thousand, armed with small arms and three dozen light armoured vehicles. On July 15, Prigozhin personally came to this camp, where he checked the facilities and described the tasks set in front of him by Lukashenko: “I am sure, we will make the Belarusian army the second army in the world. And if necessary, we will stand up for them… Then we prepare, raise our level – and set off on a new journey, to Africa. Perhaps we will return to the special military operation at the moment when we are sure that we will not be forced to shame ourselves and our experience”.
Wagner’s new focus on Africa would sit well with Lukashenko, who planned to use the same scheme of money extraction from African states as his Moscow colleagues do. Basically this means providing military help (in fighting, command and soldiers training) to different political groups in Africa in exchange for access to valuable resources mines: gold, diamonds, etc. Lukashenko already has his own private military company – Guard Service, operating in Zimbabwe. He has good connections with the local dictator and besides working according to the scheme described above is actively trying to develop economic cooperation between the two states.
So, the plans to increase the scale of such presence in Africa seemed quite logical. The main Lukashenko’s friend and comrade from the very start of political career – Vitkar Sheiman (responsible for many black schemes of the Minsk dictator) – was put in charge with the cooperation with African states. However, this task turned out to be not so easy to perform. Because this is the field, where Lukashenko’s main allies – Moscow and Beijing – are very active as well. And when it comes to money, the statements about the “iron brotherhood” between Belarus and China or about the “historical union” of Minsk and Moscow mean completely nothing. The allies on paper don’t want additional competitors on a very profitable market. Having no diplomatic connections in Africa like Russia or China, Lukashenko wasn’t able to extend his influence to other states there. And none of his friends offered him a helping hand.
Wagnerites, used as a deterrence and a propaganda tool by the Lukashenko regime
Wagner troops were also used by the Lukashenko regime for propaganda aimed at both domestic and foreign audiences. For the former, the aim was to create a picture of a strong and successful military organisation ready to fight for the Lukashenko regime against all internal enemies (even inside the regime enforcement agencies. For the latter, Wagner could be used as a show of force. On July 23, 2023, for instance, during his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko stated that Wagner troops can be used to attack Poland: “Perhaps I shouldn’t say it, but I will. The Wagner guys began to put pressure on us: We want to go to the West, let us do that. I ask them, why do they need to go to the West? They reply: Well, we want to go on an excursion to Warsaw, to Rzeszów”. At that time, channels and accounts in different social media (especially Telegram) close to Wagner Group, repeatedly disseminated information about their plans to attack Poland and Lithuania. There were also fake news alleging that the mercenaries had been deployed to these countries’ borders.
According to Lukashenko’s logic, this kind of behaviour and rhetoric should have helped him to restore his political usefulness in the eyes of the West. On August 1, 2023, he declared: “The Polish authorities should thank the Belarusians and me for inviting these fighters to Belarus. This is not one thousand. I don’t even want to name the number. In total, today they control more than 30 thousand people. These are guys eager to fight. Many were maimed and died. Will they forgive? They won’t forgive. Therefore, let them pray that we hold them and somehow provide them. Otherwise, they would have gone there without us and would have broken into Rzeszów and Warsaw and it would be really bad”. Of course, such a cheap provocation didn’t work and the result was quite the opposite – Poland and Lithuania began to strengthen their borders with Belarus even more, and the imposition of other sanctions against the Lukashenko regime became a topic on the political agenda.
Keeping a mercenary army is an unaffordable luxury for Minsk. The melting away of the Wagner army in Belarus
Another plan for using rebellious mercenaries in Belarus was the idea that they should have become instructors for the Belarusian military, especially for special operation forces. Lukashenko personally stated that a couple of times, pointing to the modern combat experience of Wagner Group. Sometimes he came to really radical ideas: “It was my initiative to invite them and I have no regrets. I want to leave these guys in the Armed Forces of our country. And, based on them, more actively create a contract army”.
This latter task has been performed quite successfully. Those mercenaries, who are able to fulfil the instructor functions, have been training different kinds of troops from various regime enforcement agencies since arriving in Belarus. These trainings are still reported by the regime propaganda. However, throughout the time of their presence, the number of Wagner troops in Belarus has been constantly decreasing. Starting from around 10 thousand people in July 2023, it has decreased to around 500 mercenaries in March 2024. It was obvious, that this was going to happen after Lukashenko’s failure to use Wagner for money extraction from Africa. Without the extra money, Minsk had no chance of maintaining a PMC.
The average monthly wage of a mercenary deployed in Belarus, is reportedly around four thousand USD a month. Ten thousand mercenaries would thus need 480 million dollars per year only for their wages, but there are other costs too – training, equipment maintenance, food supply, etc. The whole national security and defence budget of Belarus is estimated to be less than 1 billion dollars per year. So, most Wagner fighters went back to Russia to join other military formations.
Is Lukashenko trying to distance himself from the “Wagner brand”?
But those 500 mercenaries left in Belarus are taking an active part in the military training. In charge with the group is Mikalai Karpiankou, a former head of the state security service of Belarus, the infamous GUBOPiK, which is regarded as Lukashenko’s primary tool for political persecution. Karpiankou got promoted to the position of deputy interior minister and commander of Ministry of Internal Affairs Internal Troops (MIA IT). He was heavily involved in quelling the protests that followed Belarus’ rigged 2020 presidential elections, and he personally participated in attacks on the participants of peaceful manifestations in the streets of Minsk. Karpiankou often meets Wagner fighters in Belarus and is sometimes wearing a Wagner Group patch on his uniform, even if military regulations prohibit that.
MIA IT has always been more of a military formation than a police one. Now Karpiankou is creating a strike fore within the organization. A couple of special operations groups (company and battalion size) have been set up after Wagner troops arrived to Belarus. In December 2023, the regime propaganda for the first time stated that the mercenaries were included into the MIA IT. Regime insiders claim that authorities want to adopt new regulations that would allow foreign citizens to serve in the security forces – including the MIA IT – a move designed to accommodate the Wagner fighters.
These activities are designed to help Karpiankou, who started out as one of Lukashenko’s bodyguards, in fighting for influence within the system against the representatives of other regime enforcement agencies, including the armed forces, and other officials. While the security of the regime remains the main task for all of them, the importance of special operation forces within MIA IT is rising. Karpiankou’s effort is appreciated personally by Lukashenko.
However, on February 20, 2024, during a public speech in front of his enforcement agencies officers, Lukashenko claimed that Belarusian officers were just as capable and well trained as the Wagner mercenaries, having the same background in terms of military education. The very next day, “dewagnerisation” of the Lukashenko regime forces and their public image happened. If previously almost every day there were pictures of Wagner fighters with their patches and flags in all possible regime propaganda sources (including the social media of MIA IT structures), after Lukashenko’s speech they disappeared. Instead of trainings by Wagner fighters reports now mention drills with “experienced instructors”, and the creation of new formations within the framework of MIA IT.
So, the Lukashenko regime has taken advantage of some of the Wagner troops, but doesn’t want to be dependent on their brand any more. Which is the sign that the mercenaries will have to demonstrate 100% loyalty to their new sovereign and forget about their previous oaths given in Russia or anywhere else.
