In Estonian politics, a battle for Narva has begun

The spring 2023 parliamentary elections showed that a significant part of the Russian-speaking population supports politicians advocating for good neighborly relations with Russia, even as Russia remains Estonia's number one potential threat. Especially, it was obvious in Narva, one of the largest Estonian cities, situated on the border with Russia and with predominantly Russian speaking population (more than 80% are ethnic Russians, while Ukrainians and Belarusians make up about 2%). At that time, Aivo Peterson, representing the new political force Koos, which holds pro-Russian positions, ranked among the top three leaders in Narva.

It should be noted that only Estonian citizens are eligible to vote in parliamentary elections in Estonia. In municipal elections, the situation could be even more concerning, considering that so far, local Russian and Belarusian citizens, could also vote.

Constitutional Amendments

This fall, after difficult negotiations, the government initiated a process to strip third-country citizens of the voting right. This requires amending the country's Constitution, an extraordinary move for Estonia. While the Reform Party and Eesti 200 made this decision relatively easily, their coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, had to sacrifice its reputation as a political force defending the interests of the Russian-speaking population. Some high-ranking Social Democrats, predominantly Russian-speaking, including several MPs and Tallinn mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski, opposed the constitutional change, but the party leadership supported the initiative.

Moreover, Raimond Kaljulaid, a Social Democrat chairing the National Defense Committee in the Riigikogu, stated on a public portal that in matters concerning state security, nationality, not citizenship, plays the decisive role. He referred to an annual Defense Ministry study showing that three-quarters of ethnic Estonians are willing to participate in the country's defense, whereas among non-Estonians this figure is less than half. There is also a significant difference regarding whether Estonia should put up armed resistance, with a higher support for this course of action among ethnic Estonians.

As Kaljulaid notes, this can lead to opposing conclusions: on the one hand, revoking the voting rights of local Russian citizens in municipal elections is the right step; on the other hand, the voting rights of non-citizens are not the main issue, and the focus should instead be on integrating Russian speakers into a shared value space with Estonians.

Following such statements, the Social Democrats' ratings began to decline, while support for the Centre Party—the only major political force opposing this initiative—increased. However, the Centre Party is also facing losses: after losing control of the capital weeks ago, they are now losing their hold on Narva.

Narva SSR?

In mid-November, it became known that a new coalition would be formed in the border city. On November 13, the ruling Narva faction split. Former city mayor Katri Raik (2020-2021 and 2021-2023), a Social Democrat, expressed her readiness to form a new administration with her arch-rival Mihhail Stalnukhin. The latter, who for years attracted votes for the Centre Party in Narva, was expelled from the party in September 2022 after posting a video on social media in which he called those dismantling Soviet soldier monuments "Nazis" and labeled then-Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and other government members "fascists”.

The leadership of the Centre Party, then headed by former Prime Minister Jüri Ratas, voted to expel Stalnukhin. However, unlike the party, the politician did not lose his popularity. In the 2023 parliamentary elections, he achieved the best result in the Ida-Virumaa region but failed to secure a seat in parliament as an independent candidate. Following this, he publicly announced that he would no longer run for office.

Nevertheless, Stalnukhin remains an influential figure in Narva, making Katri Raik’s efforts to gain his support unsurprising. No political force in the city holds a clear advantage or enjoys widespread favor among residents. After Stalnukhin's exclusion, the Centre Party lost its sole influence. Eesti 200, attempting to win over Narva's electorate, plummeted below the electoral threshold after joining the Estonian government. Meanwhile, the pro-Russian Koos party—popular among some Russian speakers but marginal for Estonians—is not a viable choice for any Estonian politician looking to maintain their career.

For a mainstream Estonian politician like Raik, there aren’t many options: either cooperate with the Centre Party or with former Centrists. News that she intends to strike a deal with Stalnukhin has sparked both excitement and indignation. “Is forming a coalition with Putinists and Stalinists acceptable just to gain power?” wrote one Facebook user in the comments. Another countered: “And what, would a mayor from the Putinists and Stalinists be better for the city?” Notably, both users are ethnic Russians, though debating in Estonian. "Even with the devil himself, it’s better than if Raik weren’t there at all," writes an Estonian-speaking user.

“Challenging times require tough choices. But that’s what coalitions are for—to find common ground. As equal partners, with respect, and for the benefit of Narva!” said Raik herself. She assured her critics dissatisfied with her collaboration with Stalnukhin, “I support Ukraine in the war, and there are no Nazis or fascists in the Estonian government.”

A Fragile Balance

“The Estonian state has always believed that Narva’s residents need to be remade. And for two decades, Katri Raik has been doing exactly that, though in a softer and more respectful manner than other politicians," says Narva journalist Nikolai Andreyev to Veridica. "Under her leadership, the Narva branch of the University of Tartu was built—I jokingly called it 'Estonia's embassy in Narva.' But Katri became 'one of us,' even for many elderly Narva residents. In the city, she is simply called by her first name". According to Andreyev, Raik has had to balance for years between the state's desire to make Narva more Estonian and the residents’ wish to keep it Soviet.

He notes that the older generation of Narva residents shares a worldview similar to that of many Russians. "But even they were markedly loyal to the Estonian authorities, even when dissatisfied. And after the war in Ukraine began, the state, from their perspective, started to intentionally dismantle this fragile balance: banning old holidays, imposing fines for celebratory social media posts, removing monuments, transitioning Russian schools to the Estonian language, and creating barriers to crossing the border—all amid economic problems," he explains.

Raik's decision caused an uproar in the Estonian press. For example, the editor-in-chief of the Delfi portal, Urmo Soonvald, claimed she had betrayed Estonia. The situation escalated further when Stalnukhin stated at a press conference that "Narva's authorities operate in accordance with the Constitution and laws of the Estonian SSR." Following public outrage, Stalnukhin withdrew his candidacy, and Tatjana Stolfat was elected to head the Narva City Council instead.

The coalition led by Raik holds only a slim majority in Narva, so much could still change before the elections. "Right now, Raik is trying to avoid taking a definitive stance. She is attempting to appeal both to the elderly pensioner in Narva and the politician from the capital, but that’s simply impossible. That’s why her chances of defeating Mihhail Stalnukhin or Aivo Peterson in the elections are practically nonexistent," Andreyev believes. In his view, it will take many more years to establish a balance of mutual respect and trust in Narva.

On November 20, the Riigikogu sent a constitutional amendment bill to its second reading, which would strip voting rights from third-country citizens. A survey conducted on November 15 showed that 63% of Estonian citizens supported revoking the right of Russian citizens to vote in municipal elections, while 29% opposed it, and 8% were undecided. Among ethnic Estonians, 74% supported the measure, whereas only 12% of respondents from other ethnic backgrounds did.

Such a low level of support is unsurprising: Russians make up about 24% of Estonia's population and are the largest national minority in the country, with many of them having close ties to people holding Russian passports. If constitutional amendments are adopted, it is certain that this will not strengthen interethnic relations in the country.