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On August 1, the Republic of Moldova will enter what national legislation describes as “an election cycle”. One by one, authorities will set in motion mechanisms for preparing the presidential election and the referendum for EU accession, scheduled to take place concurrently on October 20.
With only three months left until the election and referendum, there are a number of pressing questions that need answering, from the number of voters (an important factor in terms of validating the ballots), to the candidates enrolled in the race and the designation of a joint candidate to represent the pro-Russian opposition.
The Socialists opt for an independent candidate. Will he benefit from the support of other pro-Russian opposition parties?
The Party of Socialists, the largest pro-Russian opposition political force in the Republic of Moldova, has announced it will back the candidacy of the former Prosecutor General of the Republic of Moldova, Aleksandr Stoianoglo, in the presidential election.
“Aleksandr Stoianoglo is known for his professional authority, modesty, civic courage and principles – the very qualities a president of a country must display”, the president of the Party of Socialists, Igor Dodon, said, urging other political factions to rally behind Stoianoglo’s bid in the race.
The nomination of a single candidate for the presidential election has long been the topic of widespread backstage negotiations among opposition parties, especially pro-Russian ones. Some have even speculated that this unique candidate could be Aleksandr Stoianoglo.
However, the Socialists’ decision is somewhat of a surprise. Only four days before announcing that the Party of Socialists would support Aleksandr Stoianoglo’s candidacy, one of the leaders of this party, Vlad Bătrâncea, said that, if the opposition failed to identify a common opposition candidate, a Socialist would eventually enter the race for the presidency.
It is unclear whether the designation of Aleksandr Stoianoglo comes as a result of an agreement between several parties, including the Socialists, to support his candidacy, or, on the contrary, the Socialists are pushing their luck, trying to get other political factions to rally behind their candidate. We’re also talking about a candidate whose political reputation is far from unblemished – Stoianoglo is facing serious integrity allegations, his name being associated with several pending investigations.
Political commentator Ion Tăbârță wonders whether or not the appointment of Aleksandr Stoianoglo was taken with Moscow’s blessing. Aleksandr Stoianoglo could ultimately represent “the combined efforts of the pro-Russian left, which will thus try to upset the main pro-European candidate”, the incumbent president Maia Sandu, Ion Tăbârță argues.
“I find it hard to believe that […] Mr. Stoianoglo will be a serious opponent for Mrs. Maia Sandu. (…) It will be a fierce campaign, aimed at ruining her approval rating, creating a negative image for Mrs. Maia Sandu. We will witness accusations that Stoianoglo is a victim of the regime, that the current government led by Maia Sandu does not observe the rule of law, freedoms, etc”, Ion Tăbârță says, referring to the investigations targeting Aleksandr Stoianoglo in recent years.
The executive director of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives, Vlad Kulminski, believes that Igor Dodon “forfeited his political career” by deciding to back Aleksandr Stoianoglo. After this decision, the leader of the socialists “will not really matter anymore in the political landscape of the Republic of Moldova”, Vlad Kuminski added, wondering why Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who claims to be an independent candidate, agreed to represent a political party.
How many voters are there in the Republic of Moldova? Why the diaspora could play a key role
Another question surrounding the presidential election in the Republic of Moldova is the actual number of voters.
Increasingly depopulated in recent years, the Republic of Moldova currently has approximately 2.4 million inhabitants, by nearly a million less than compared to 2004.
On the other hand, the total number of voters officially registered with the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) is over 3.3 million.
The big gap between CEC data and the findings (albeit preliminary) of the census concluded on July 7, can best be explained by the fact that over a million Moldovan citizens are living outside the country’s borders, most of them in the West. Their participation in autumn’s election thus becomes vital for pro-European parties, which are traditionally favored by Moldovans in diaspora. In addition, the mobilization of Moldovans living abroad could be vital for the referendum to reach its validation threshold.
The EU accession referendum, Moscow's top prize. Will the boycott of pro-Russian parties be enough to invalidate it?
The third question in connection to the presidential election is related to the EU accession referendum, which will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If the majority of voters opted in favor of Moldova joining the community bloc, the constitution of the Republic of Moldova would have to be amended, and European integration would be enshrined in the fundamental law as a priority of Chișinău’s foreign policy. This would considerably reduce the leverage of pro-Kremlin forces in the Republic of Moldova.
Back in April, Russia criticized Chișinău’s plans to organize the said referendum, which it described as Russophobic.
The referendum also stirred disgruntlement among pro-Russian parties in the Republic of Moldova. The Party of Socialists, for instance, announced that it would boycott the referendum because it allegedly favors president Maia Sandu.
The Socialists further argued that holding the presidential election and the referendum on the same day is illegal, despite the fact that a ruling of the Constitutional Court states the opposite.
According to the deputy director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE), Mihai Mogîldea, considering the pro-Russian forces’ plan to boycott the referendum, there is a risk the referendum will be declared invalid due to a low voter turnout , below the 33% threshold required for validation:
“The referendum has become the most important trump card for Russia in the Republic of Moldova this fall. Not the presidential election as much as the referendum. The entire focus of the pro-Russian opposition, Dodon, Shor, Vlah, (formal or informal leaders of certain pro-Russian forces – a.n.) will be channeled on this referendum. Boycotting the referendum will be a common endeavor for each of them. Once these forces unite, we might witness the unlikely scenario of a low participation in the referendum”.
However, not all pro-Russian forces intend to boycott the referendum. Vladimir Voronin's Communists, who are part of the same political bloc in the current Parliament as Igor Dodon's Socialists, called on its electorate to vote against the EU accession of the Republic of Moldova, claiming that boycotting the referendum will eventually lead to an artificial increase in the percentage of voters who will opt for European integration.
Will Shor Party, known for its close ties to Moscow, be allowed to take part in the election campaign?
In this multifaceted political context, which shapes up approximately three months ahead of the presidential election and the pro-European referendum, there is still one more question that needs answering: what will be the role played by forces close to the wanted oligarch, Ilan Shor, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison in the billion-dollar bank fraud in the Republic of Moldova, and who subsequently fled to Moscow?. First and foremost, the “Chance” Party risks being excluded from the race before the election campaign even begins. The party is accused of multiple violations of the election legislation, according to the vice president of the Central Electoral Commission in Chișinău, Pavel Postică. How will supporters of this party vote? Will they show up or not at the polls?
We will probably have our answers as the date of the election draws near, when things clear up in the pro-Russian camp, right now marred by inconsistency and uncertainty. At present, this seems to favor the current president, Maia Sandu, who also announced her intention to run for a new term as head of state.
