The threat of Russian aggression against Ukraine comes as an important test for the new Czech government of Petr Fiala – the first major international crisis it must face. It will not be easy, given that the current coalition has to share power with a pro-Russian president and is also facing a growing disinformation campaign.
The government's firm stance on Russia's aggression
The situation escalated again last week when U.S. intelligence informed allies that Russia may attack Ukraine as early as Wednesday, February 16.
“We were informed, as were all allies in Europe, by the United States. The news was surprising, because in the meantime, on the contrary, there were already signs that the situation might be slowly calming down. However, a message came from the US services that they had information that the attack could begin on 16 February," Martin Dvořák, the deputy foreign minister, confirmed the date to Deník N.
The state has begun preparations for a possible escalation of the conflict – it has warned citizens not to travel to Ukraine or to leave it. It has prepared plans for a possible evacuation of the embassy, and sent the families of diplomats to Prague.
On Wednesday, the fears did not come true. However, the situation remains tense. Russia maintains over 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and, according to Western officials, all indications are that it is preparing for war.
The Czech Republic has had a new government since the end of last year, with representatives of five political parties. All of them are clearly pro-Western and have taken a clear stance in the face of the growing threat of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
On Thursday, before leaving for an informal EU summit in Brussels, Prime Minister Petr Fiala of the conservative Civic Democratic Party noted that Western states must take a clear and united position on the situation around Ukraine. Russia, he added, must know that there are borders that cannot be crossed.
The Foreign Ministry, headed by Jan Lipavsky of the Czech Pirate Party, is also speaking out unequivocally. In early February, he visited Ukraine together with the Slovak and Austrian foreign ministers to express their support. "This trip is a great symbolic gesture. The security of Ukraine means the security of the whole of Europe. If Ukraine has chosen the European path and a Western orientation, it should be able to fulfil its dream," the Czech minister told the Ukrainian media.
Interior Minister Vit Rakusan (Mayors and Independents) then assured that the Czech Republic is ready to accept thousands of refugees from Ukraine, if the conflict begins.
The government makes it clear that it takes the information from the US intelligence services seriously and also expresses hope that a war scenario will not eventually occur.
Zeman keeps on playing the Russian card
President Miloš Zeman, who has long held pro-Russian positions, is taking a different tack. In the past, for example, he has proposed the 'finlandisation' of Ukraine, referred to the conflict in the Donbas as a civil war and questioned the involvement of Russian troops in it. In a recent interview with the daily newspaper MF Dnes, the President criticised the CIA, but did not assess the role of Russia itself.
"I said a few days ago that in my opinion there will be no war. Because the Russians are not fools to embark on an operation that will bring them more harm than good. As for the American intelligence services, this is their third blunder. The first was in Iraq, where no weapons of mass destruction were found. The second was in Afghanistan when they claimed that the Taliban would never take Kabul. And the third is now," Zeman said.
"When you ask me why the West is doing this, and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg – who should resign over the withdrawal from Afghanistan – says the Russians are ready and the war could start at any moment, well, the withdrawal of Russian troops speaks against that. Which began after the Russians completed military exercises on their own territory," he added.
Zeman’s assertion about the withdrawal proved to be completely false: both Ukraine and Western states reiterate that there are no signs of Russian troops withdrawing from Ukraine's borders.
Moreover, Zeman pointed out that the information about the upcoming invasion was sent by the CIA. "In any case, it was a CIA report. And I don't ask the CIA what information sources it has. Only on the basis of the three cases mentioned, I doubt the quality of these sources," he added.
Zeman has some more problems with intelligence reports and intelligence agencies. The Czech Republic's counterintelligence agency, the BIS, has long been under his attack for tracking the activities of Russian agents on Czech territory, among others, and likely has some of Zeman's close associates in its crosshairs, as the president himself has claimed. Zeman’s office is also at odds with the BIS over a secret report on the explosion of ammunition depots in Vrbětice in the east of the country, which investigators say was the work of agents of the Russian military intelligence agency GRU.
When the BIS delivered the report that the Czech Republic had been targeted by Russian agents to Prague Castle last April, the President did not read it for days – his associates apparently did not give it to him. He did not learn about the outcome of the investigation until he heard from then Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and Interior Minister Jan Hamáček more than week later.
Police investigators subsequently suspected that unauthorised people at Prague Castle had been privy to the secret report – some of Zeman's close associates did not have the appropriate security clearance. This January, detectives came to Prague Castle to request the secret document. They wanted to secure clues – fingerprints or DNA traces. But officials told the police that the file had been shredded by mistake. The presidential office then repeatedly claimed the opposite – that it had not destroyed any document that should have been archived. And it accused the BIS of delivering the secret report to them in a “gross mess”.
The outlets spreading Covid fake news turned to pro-Russian disinformation
Let's go back to Zeman's actual interview. It was very soon quoted by Russian state agencies and a number of other media outlets. In addition, the Czech disinformation media picked up on the president's remarks. "The situation is serious because this is the first time that Miloš Zeman has openly attacked the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) from his position as president," wrote, for example, Aeronet, one of the most prominent disinformation sites.
In general, the level of disinformation in the Czech public space has increased along with the threat of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This is confirmed by both organisations dealing with the problem and the authorities. "The pro-Russian disinformation scene is more active at the moment. This is demonstrable," the interior minister Rakušan said last week in an interview with Deník N.
The Czech Elves, a group dedicated to fighting disinformation, confirms this trend. According to their monitoring, quoted by news server Aktuálně.cz, Russia was the most frequently supported entity in January, both on disinformation websites and in chain emails.
According to the group, "disinformation about the crisis in Ukraine increased the most month-on-month in January. Moreover, this is a change from December, when disinformation websites did not pay much attention to the topic of Russian-Ukrainian tensions," the site described.
The fact that the attention of the pro-Russian disinformation scene has turned to the East is also evident from the fact that individual platforms have started to change their focus. While in the previous months they were mainly devoted to spreading confusion about Covid and vaccinations, now they are mainly focused on the situation on the Ukrainian border.
An example, as pointed out by Deník N, is the Facebook group "Neočkovaní CZ, SK", which currently has over 20,000 members. In recent days, the group has started to spread posts on the topic of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine.
"From the knowledge obtained through monitoring of open sources, it can be stated that the topic of a potential conflict in Ukraine appears on pages and groups aimed at criticising vaccination and other anti-epidemic measures," the Interior Ministry confirmed to Deník N that disinformation websites are indeed changing their orientation.
Czech minister: „we must take into account optimistic and pesimistic scenarios“
The intensity is expected to increase further as tensions between Russia and the West grow, moreover, given that US intelligence warnings that an attack could come on February 16 have not come true. President Milos Zeman also made use of this in the interview cited above.
The fact that the disinformation scene will work with this date was announced earlier last week by Interior Minister Rakušan. "At that point, however, the disinformation scene can logically focus on defending Russia as a victim of misleading information from the West. I firmly reject this in advance. I reject that this is a disinformation game of the West, even though it is almost clear that the disinformation scene will exploit it," he said.
"In our region and within NATO, we must be prepared to protect our territory, our interests and our people. And we must take into account optimistic and pessimistic scenarios," he added.
