
BUCHAREST: Upsizing the NATO forces in Romania doesn’t makes any sense, as Russia does not intend to attack other states and promotes peace, according to the Russian MFA spokesperson. She ignored, however, the very reason for strengthening NATO's presence in the East: Moscow's aggressive policy.
NEWS: “NATO's arguments for strengthening its presence in Eastern Europe, including by deploying combat groups in Romania, make no sense, Russia does not intend to attack anyone”, said Maria Zaharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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“The militarization of the Black Sea region is an old NATO initiative. Does the alliance intend to turn this truly peaceful region of cooperation into an arena for geopolitical battles and rivalry ...? The military concentration of the North Atlantic bloc is justified by an imaginary Russian threat. As far as I understand, the hysteria of recent weeks is also linked to the presence of Russian forces near the Russian border, which prompts the alliance to defend itself […] Russia is not threatening the NATO countries, it has no intention of attacking them, just as it has no intention of attacking other countries. We promote a policy of peace, we stand for peace, peace is one of the main values of our country, especially on our territory”, she stressed.
NARRATIVES: 1. There is no threat from Russia to justify the strengthening of the NATO presence in Romania. 2. NATO wants to militarize the Black Sea. 3. Russia isn’t threatening the NATO states and has no intention of attacking another country. 4. Russia promotes peace.
LOCAL CONTEXT / ETHOS: Since the end of 2021, Russia has mobilized significant troops and fighting techniques around Ukraine - on the Black Sea and in the occupied Crimea, along the Russian-Ukrainian border and in Belarus. This aggressive posture has been accompanied by Moscow’s ultimatum-like claims that NATO should never accept Ukraine and the Alliance withdraw from the former communist member states.
Russia's aggression in the region is not a new phenomenon. In 2007 it launched a massive cyber-attack on Estonia, in 2008 invaded Georgia, in 2014 invaded and annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Russia's aggressiveness has raised concerns among the NATO states, especially since 2014. Former communist or ex-Soviet member states, which have a bad historical experience with Russia, first with the Tsarist Empire, then with the USSR, which imposed communist totalitarian regimes and maintained, in many of them, military contingents, called for the consolidation of the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. One of the measures taken by NATO was to render operational four battlegroups in Poland and the Baltic Countries , totaling approximately 4,500 troops.
The current crisis at the borders of Ukraine has prompted the Alliance to further strengthen its forces on the eastern flank. The United States, NATO's main military power, sent the most important additional troops, several thousand soldiers, including the one thousand-strong Task Force Cougar in Romania . This is a temporary deployment , so the Alliance has discussed the idea of setting up in Romania a permanent battlegroup, similar to those in Poland and the Baltic countries. France has offered to lead the group.
PURPOSE: To present Russia as a victim to NATO aggression. To undermine NATO's measures to strengthen the eastern flank.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The mobilization of Russian forces around Ukraine is a threat to NATO member states as well, as a conflict in Ukraine could affect their security, even indirectly, through the waves of refugees. Russia has also been aggressive toward NATO member states, using disinformation and fake news campaigns and attempts to meddle in electoral processes, all aimed at destabilizing them internally, the constant harassment of NATO planes and ships in the Baltic and Black Seas, a harsh rhetoric towards the Alliance, etc. Russian officials have said over time that Romania could be a target for Russia as it hosts the missile-defense shield. Moreover, the states in the region, which are all too used to Russia's aggression, are genuinely concerned when, not far from their borders, Russia is mobilizing such important forces.
The allegations regarding NATO’s militarizing the Black Sea region are also false. The presence of NATO forces in the Black Sea is severely limited by the Montreaux Convention. Under the convention, the states that are not bordering the Black Sea can send to the Black Sea only a limited number of ships at a time and for a certain period of time. Of the riparian NATO states, Romania and Bulgaria have failed to sufficiently modernize their navies. As for the non-NATO countries, Russia virtually destroyed the Georgian and Ukrainian navies in 2008 and 2014. The result is that Russia is the dominant power on the Black Sea and it is the one that has militarized this region.
As for Russia's assurances that it has no intention of attacking that country and it promotes peace, it should be noted that in the former Soviet Union space Russia waged brutal campaigns against Chechen Islamist rebels, virtually destroying Grozny, and intervened in 1992 alongside the separatists in Transnistria, and waged wars against Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow also supports separatist entities in three independent states - the Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine - and has military contingents there. Russia is also the first European country to invade another country on the continent after World War II and seize part of its territory.
GRAIN OF TRUTH: NATO is considering setting-up a permanent battlegroup in Romania; it would be similar to the four in Poland and the Baltic countries, of about one thousand troops each.