The authorities in Chișinău caused the expected gas crisis expected to begin in January, after Ukraine will no longer allow the transit of Russian gas, according to the Russian publication ng.ru. In fact, Russia has refused to continue to deliver gas supplies to Transnistria via another pipeline.
NEWS: “In Chișinău, Moscow is accused of a possible collapse that could occur if Gazprom discontinues gas deliveries to Transnistria for free, as it has done for the last three decades, without mentioning Kyiv, which came up with the idea of stopping gas transit from Russia to the EU via Ukraine’s territory.
[...] “The Moldovan authorities are deliberately provoking a gas crisis to put pressure on Transnistria, but they will not achieve anything”, Andrei Safonov, a deputy of the Supreme Soviet of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, has told NG. Safonov emphasized that, on the one hand, Moldova is blackmailing Russia over the Transnistria issue in order to erase its historical debt to Gazprom ($709 million), while on the other hand, using the issue of gas transit via Ukraine to “suffocate” Transnistria: “They want, as their officials say, for us to suffer from hunger and cold.” At the same time, another possible goal of politicians in Chișinău has become obvious: to force Transnistrians to pay for gas “at market prices”, and not to Russia, but to Chișinău, which could thus try to force PMR to politically surrender, offering Transnistrians exactly as much gas as they can pay for, and only in advance. That basically means introducing low gas ‘rations’,’ Safonov notes”.
NARRATIVES: 1. Chișinău caused the energy crisis in Transnistria and is trying to put pressure on this region. 2. Chișinău will sell gas to Transnistria at higher prices, whereas Gazprom was offering it for free.
PURPOSE: To promote the idea that Moldovan authorities are responsible for the crisis that could start in January, in order to generate a critical attitude from the population of Transnistria towards the Moldovan government. At the same time, to mask the fact that Gazprom has imposed harsh conditions for the supply of gas to the Transnistrian region, placing it in an uncertain position and considerably slashing its budget revenues.
Moscow demands Chișinău pay for gas delivered to Transnistria
BACKGROUND: Ukraine did not extend its contract with Gazprom allow for gas transit through its territory, starting January 1, 2025. Part of this gas reached the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova. The largest amount of gas is used to produce electricity, which Transnistria sells on the right bank of the Dniester at lower prices than on regional markets. One factor explaining the low price of gas is the fact that the separatist region does not pay for its gas input, while electricity supplies account for a significant part of the separatist regime's budget revenues.
According to expert media in Chișinău, last summer Transnistria’s gas-related debt stood at nearly $10 billion. Chișinău does not recognize this debt. However, some experts argue that it may become an element of pressure from Moscow. In fact, the former pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon, suggested during his term in office that Transnistria’s gas-related debt is actually part of Moldova's debt.
Since 2022, the Republic of Moldova (located on the right bank of the Dniester) has stopped buying gas from Gazprom, after the Russian giant unilaterally decided to reduce gas deliveries.
The former Energy Minister, Victor Parlicov, traveled to St. Petersburg at the end of November to discuss the current situation with the Gazprom administration, although talks produced no results. According to Parlicov, Gazprom asked the Republic of Moldova to pay another debt of approximately 700 million USD in order to continue gas deliveries to Transnistria through another pipeline. Moldova does not recognize the alleged debt.
Meanwhile, gas prices have increased in the Republic of Moldova and it is very likely that electricity prices will soon follow. If Moldova does not receive electricity supplies from Transnistria, the authorities have not ruled out planned power cuts. In Tiraspol, the separatist authorities have declared a state of economic emergency, whereas in Moldova, a state of emergency came into effect last week due to the shortage of energy resources.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: Chișinău had no interest in causing the energy crisis. On the contrary, in the run-up to an election year (the parliamentary election is due in 2025), the increase in energy prices is detrimental to the current government. Ukraine did not extend the contract with Gazprom in the context of the Russian invasion. The authorities in Chișinău tried to negotiate with Gazprom to continue supplies to Transnistria via the Trans-Balkan pipeline, however to no avail.
Admittedly, Transnistria does not pay for Russian gas supplies, but that does not mean that Gazprom is providing Transnistria with gas for free. In fact, the separatist region is running a debt, which, at some point, could serve as an element of pressure on Chișinău, especially in the context of talks to settle the Transnistrian conflict.
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