Chișinău and the USA are preparing to go to war against Transnistria, which is why negotiations in the 5+2 format in Stockholm were delayed, a political pundit close to the regime in Tiraspol has said. The narratives regarding prospective attacks on Russia or its allies are aimed at drawing attention away from Moscow’s aggressions in the region and to justify its actions.
NEWS: “In the opinion of Transnistrian political theorist, Andrei Safonov, Chișinău refused to take part in the 5+2 talks in Stockholm, Sweden, hoping that in November Moldova would have more chances to pressure Tiraspol and thus obtain more concessions. This would be possible if Chișinău hadn’t managed to sign a contract with Gazprom, the gas would have come from Romania, and Transnistria would have been cut off from its gas supply. Seeing themselves with no gas supplies with winter less than a month away, the authorities in Tiraspol would have been forced to renounce their independence and become a territorial component of Moldova once again, the political theorist argues. Once that happens, the withdrawal of peacekeeping troops from the territory of Transnistria would be just a matter of time”, Mejdurecie.md writes, picking up on an article published by the Russian news portal fondsk.ru, which in turn references an article published by the Transnistrian commentator on novostipmr.com.
In this context, Safonov claims the United States has allegedly started to send Moldova deliveries of weapons, betting on a military escalation in the region, which, he argues, would have happened if Moldova had been left without Russian gas imports. “If we factor in this possible escalation, the meeting in Stockholm is no longer useful to the West and to right-wing forces in Moldova. There, Chișinău would have had to make certain promises which would have prevented any future military escalation”, the political theorist writes.
He claims that the threat of the conflict in Transnistria turning into a fully-fledged war is still there, since Moldova “has preserved its pro-European policies, continues to distance itself from Eurasian integration projects, while Maia Sandu doesn’t plan on meeting Vladimir Putin or the president of PMR, Vadim Vadim Krasnoselsky, any time soon”.
The publication also recalls in this respect the EU report: “Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea”.
Andrei Safonov is confident such plans “risk triggering a large-scale war in the region of the Black Sea and the Dniester, considering that a new delivery of American military equipment is due to arrive in Chișinău by the end of the year. The USA and Moldova are unlikely to fight against Ukraine or Romania, so that leaves only Transnistria and Russia”, the author of the article concludes.
NARRATIVES: 1. Chișinău and the USA are preparing a war against Transnistria and Russia. 2. Chișinău has postponed the talks in the 5+2 format in Stockholm in order to let the situation in Transnistria escalate.
BACKGROUND: At the end of October, the Republic of Moldova managed to reach an agreement with the Russian energy giant Gazprom on the delivery of natural gas, at the end of a month of negotiations with Gazprom and the Kremlin administration. Apart from the economic and commercial component, negotiations also had a political dimension, experts say, something which prime minister Natalia Gavriliță also half-heartedly admitted. Since it obtained its independence in 1991, Moldova’s gas supplies were the most important weapon used by the Kremlin against Chișinău, which completely relies on Russian gas imports. After the building of the Iași-Chișinău pipeline, the Republic of Moldova has diversified its gas sources, except Transnistria continues to lack options. Moreover, the regime in Tiraspol is allegedly running short on cash, considering most of its budget is based on revenues from the electric power plant in Cuciurgan, which provides electricity of the Republic of Moldova.
PURPSOE: The narrative is aimed at promoting the idea of Chișinău’s acts of aggression in Transnistria and the West’s aggressions in the region. Moreover, the narrative also tries to justify the Russian military presence west of the Dniester, while indirectly also justifying Moscow’s involvement over the last 30 years in the conflicts in the Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The narratives are also part of the Kremlin’s propaganda targeting the EU, the USA and NATO, describing them as aggressive organizations that want to turn ex-Soviet states in testing grounds for launching a war against Russia. The various fake news about the West and the United States wanting to drag Moldova into a regional conflict emerged particularly in the wake of the political changes in Chișinău, where the pro-European party PAS won the election, as well as in the context of the revitalization of relations between Chișinău and Kiev. The same publication recently wrote that American troops have been brought to Moldova in order to take part in the war against Ukraine, a fake story that was ruled out by the Ministry of Defense in Chișinău.
Moreover, during the election campaign and after the pro-European PAS party took power in the Republic of Moldova, the media in Transnistria and Russia and those outlets affiliated to the Socialists in Chișinău have promoted a story claiming the new administration will trigger an escalation of the Transnistrian conflict. For nearly three decades, Transnistrian propaganda has been targeting the Republic of Moldova, seen as an aggressor by the people of Transnistria.
In fact, Chișinău lost control of its eastern region following a war on the Dniester in 1992, triggered and directly supported by Moscow and the 14th Russian Army. The breakaway regime in Tiraspol continues to receive political and military support from the Russian Federation.
As regards the meeting in the 5+2 format regarding the Transnistrian conflict, which the publication claims Chișinău canceled, only the media in Tiraspol wrote the meeting was supposed to take place in early November. Chișinău and the OSCE mission to the Republic of Moldova never made any announcement regarding a meeting in this format taking place in early November or being cancelled. The acting president of the OSCE, Sweden’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ann Linde, said just that “The Swedish presidency of the OSCE is ready to host a meeting in the 5+2 format this year in Stockholm”. The Office for Reintegration Policies in Chișinău issued a release regarding the organization of the next round of talks in the 5+2 format, saying that right now consultations are being held in this respect and that an official answer will presented in the near future.
GRAIN OF TRUTH: The date for the next meeting in the 5+2 format aimed at negotiating a resolution in the Transnistrian conflict has not yet been set.
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