DISINFORMATION: Romanian troops, alongside Poland, Ukraine and Moldova, are preparing to invade Transnistria

NARRATIVES: 1. Romania, Poland, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova will jointly attack the Transnistrian separatist region. 2. Russia did not want to invade Ukraine, but struck preemptively as Ukraine was about to attack the separatist regions in Donbas. 3. Poland wants to take control over some of the territories in western Ukraine. 4. Romania must recover lost territories from Ukraine.

LOCAL CONTEXT / ETHOS: Several incidents took place in Transnistria last week - unidentified perpetrators fired at the headquarters of the MGB secret service, considered by many analysts in Chisinau just a regional extension of the Russian FSS. Nonfunctional antennae, but which had previously broadcast Russian TV and radio programs in Transnistria were blown up, etc. The attacks have not been claimed, but their nature suggests that they could be Russian false-flag operations. Other scenarios blame the attacks on Ukraine or rivaling groups in the separatist republic.

There are about 1,600 Russian soldiers in the Transnistrian region, most of them Transnistrian locals because the Republic of Moldova has not allowed any turnover of Russian military in the region for years. Adding to these would be, according to figures circulated in Chisinau, a maximum of 8,000 soldiers from all Transnistrian force structures.

PURPOSE:  To promote the meta-narrative according to which Russia would be the victim of Ukraine and the West, and so its war is justified. To support Russia's propaganda narrative about the West's aggression against Moscow.

WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The author of the article does not mention any source for his statements, but the main narratives coincide with those launched by Russia over time -  Romania’s involvement in the war with Ukraine , the attack on Transnistria, the lack of viability of the Ukrainian state and its dismantling in favor of the neighbors, NATO's involvement in the war in Ukraine, the responsibility of the Alliance and the West in general for the conflict, etc.

Such a combined effort of two NATO countries - Romania and Poland, plus Ukraine, which has a very large military force and is already well equipped with high-performance weapons, would not be justified logistically and militarily.

In the event of an attack, Romania and Poland can no longer be protected by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, so they would no longer benefit from collective defense; therefore, an operation involving all of NATO is out of question.

On the other hand, last week, the Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksii Arestovich stated that the Ukrainian army could intervene alone and would eliminate the Russian and Transnistrian forces in the region “in the blink of an eye”. He said that the problem was that Ukraine would in fact legally attack the territory of the Republic of Moldova.

Therefore, in the event of an attack on Transnistria, Ukraine would not need the involvement of NATO states, and their involvement would not be tantamount to NATO entering the war on the side of Kiev.

The fact that Russia allegedly attacked Ukraine as a precaution is false, because for a year, Russia brought troops to the borders of Ukraine and prepared for the attack. At the time of the invasion, on February 24^th, Ukraine did not have so many troops - 60-80,000 soldiers - on the demarcation line with Donbas.

By the same logic, Ukraine has the legitimate right to reclaim the territories it lost in 2014 to the separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk,  backed by another foreign state, in this case Russia.

The threat from Russia is even greater, because we are talking about Russia, which, on paper, has the second largest army in the world and is a nuclear power.

Poland recovering its territories in Ukraine is also a recurring theme in the Russian propaganda narratives .Poland is by far one of the most vocal countries with regard to the Russian aggression in Ukraine and has sent consistent humanitarian and military support to that country. Poland has also hosted about three million Ukrainian refugees since the start of the war.

Last but not least, the idea of reclaiming from Ukraine the territories predominantly inhabited by Romanians before the Second World War is also a thesis often invoked in the Russian propaganda narratives debunked by Veridica. They count on the Romanians’ revanchist feelings towards the neighboring countries that seized historically Romanian territories.