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According to the pro-Russian media, the referendum on the European integration of the Republic of Moldova is, in fact, aimed at getting the country involved in the war on the side of NATO.
NEWS: Regardless of what the president's true goals were when she announced the idea of a referendum on the external vector, the general international context shows that Moldovan citizens have a dangerous choice to make.
[...] It has been openly stated that the exercise Steadfast Defender-24 is a simulation of the outbreak of World War III. And the maneuvers themselves are becoming the largest since the collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact Organization.
We remind you that the Republic of Moldova, as stated by the Ministry of Defense, will participate in international exercises under the command of the US Swift Response. In the past, these exercises have been a continuation of the Steadfast Defender military maneuvers, which this year simulate the start of a big war. The link between exercises is obvious, as they are conducted in accordance with a unified strategic plan. And the participants are the same: NATO countries and candidates. And the leader of the alliance, the United States, directs everything.
[...] Therefore, we see that Moldova offers its territory for NATO exercises, participates in such maneuvers, takes measures to modernize the army quite synchronously with Western countries, within the limits of available possibilities and even to the detriment of the social and strategic interests of Moldovan society.
And if we are living in pre-war times, as claimed by senior NATO leaders and military commanders of countries such as Germany and Great Britain, this gives another meaning to the so-called geopolitical aspirations of Moldovan leaders. And the planned referendum on the external vector may have been conceived from the start as a very important argument to justify participation in the future preparations and military actions planned in the event of the collapse of neighboring Ukraine, but which are still not being talked about out loud.
Regardless of whether it’s this or the desire to take the leap to a second mandate with the help of the referendum, the general international context indicates that the citizens of the Republic of Moldova have a dangerous choice to make. Given the changed realities, the essence of the vote becomes the decision to participate on NATO's side in a future major European war or World War III. Thus, the referendum itself turns into a call to war.
NARRATIVES: 1. NATO is preparing for a major military confrontation (suggesting that the Alliance will be the one provoking it 2. Through the referendum on European integration that they intend to hold in the fall, the Chisinau authorities are planning to bring the Republic of Moldova under the influence of NATO and get involved in the war on its side.
LOCAL CONTEXT/ ETHOS: On December 24, the President of the Republic of Moldova Maia Sandu requested Parliament to initiate a referendum on EU accession . The pro-presidential PAS majority has amended the Electoral Code so that referendums are allowed to be held on the same day as regular elections; most likely, the referendum will take place together with the presidential elections in the fall of this year.
The intention to organize the referendum is disputed by the opposition , which believes that it was designed to help Maia Sandu get a new term in office.
Since 2021, the Republic of Moldova has taken important steps towards EU integration, a process that has been stepped up since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The two countries and Georgia submitted their applications for membership in March 2022, and in June of the same year, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine obtained the status of candidate countries. 18 months later, the European Council also decided to open accession negotiations. Polls show a support of approximately 55-60 percent in favor of European integration. However, they do not take into account the large diaspora, mostly pro-European, as the political preferences in the last polls showed.
On the other hand, only between a quarter and a third of the citizens would support a potential accession to NATO, the majority speaking for maintaining the status of neutrality, provided for in the 1994 Constitution.
At the same time, more and more experts and politicians draw attention to the fact that the status of neutrality is not a guarantor of security, as shown by the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, and then by the annexation of Crimea by Russia, and the creation of separatist regions, supported by Moscow, in eastern Ukraine in 2014. The Russian military invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has prompted several traditionally neutral states to review their security and neutrality policies, and two of them – Finland and Sweden – have applied to join NATO.
The North Atlantic Alliance, however, is still presented as a scarecrow to a good part of the population of the Republic of Moldova, who sees it through the lens of Soviet propaganda and, more recently, of the Russian Federation.
The rapprochement of the Republic of Moldova with the EU is viewed critically by Moscow and pro-Russian politicians in Chisinau. Theses about the preparation of the Republic of Moldova for a war against Russia, its involvement in military conflicts, or NATO using local infrastructure to support Ukraine in the war with Russia have intensified in the last period of time, the aim being to feed citizens’ fears and a negative attitude towards NATO.
PURPOSE: To reduce support for the European integration of the Republic of Moldova by associating it with its involvement in the war, under the auspices of NATO.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: NATO did indeed launch, in late January, the largest military maneuvers in decades: Steadfast Defender 2024, involving 90,000 troops. However, as the Alliance has stated, these are defense exercises carried out by the member countries in the event of an attack. Therefore, suggesting that NATO would prepare for an offensive war, as the article does, has no factual base.
Within the framework of Moldova's partnership with NATO, signed back in the 90s, Moldovan soldiers have participated in dozens of exercises together with soldiers from some member states of the Alliance. This time, however, there is no question of participation in Steadfast Defender, given that the Minister of Defense from Chisinau, Anatolie Nosatîi himself stated, quoted by Newsmaker, that the “Republic of Moldova is not participating in the Steadfast Defender 24” , and the "Swift Response" exercise has nothing to do with "Steadfast Defender 24".
Even if the idea of the Republic of Moldova joining NATO to ensure a security umbrella for itself is accredited in civil society and political circles, this possibility has never been officially addressed, especially since society, at least for now, would not support this idea.
Moreover, the Republic of Moldova does not have significant military capabilities to make it attractive enough to become party to a war. The army of the Republic of Moldova ranks penultimate in the world, according to an annual ranking made by Global Firepower.
Maia Sandu proposed the organization of a referendum on the European integration of the Republic of Moldova, which has nothing to do with NATO. Russian and pro-Russian propaganda often promote the narrative that NATO membership is a condition for EU membership. The European Community, however, has accepted several neutral states - Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Finland. The latter two applied for NATO membership (and Finland was accepted) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when they considered that neutrality no longer ensured their security.
On the other hand, there are NATO member states that are not EU members. And not all of them are non-European countries, some are located on the European continent. Some of them applied for EU membership but were not accepted because they did not meet the criteria, the most famous example being that of Turkey.
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