FAKE NEWS: The West will swallow up Moldova and will use it against Russia

Moldova will be swallowed up by the West and used by it against the country that has so far guaranteed its security and economic prosperity, Russia, according to the Socialist leader, Igor Dodon. A declared pro-Russian, Dodon has launched several false narratives that have been taken as such and amplified in the Russian-speaking space by the pro-Kremlin agency Lenta.ru.

NEWS: Igor Dodon, who stated in a meeting with representatives of the Moldovan diaspora in Russia that “Moldova will not survive without its friendship with Russia; it will be swallowed up, as some pro-Europeans want, and will be used against Russia”, Lenta.ru reads. “Unfortunately, our president (Maia Sandu) is influenced from the outside. No decision is made without the permission of Western curators - American and European. In this situation, it is difficult for Moldova to maintain its independence”, Dodon was quoted by the same source as saying. Referring to the decrease in Moldovan exports to the Russian market, Igor Dodon claims that this decline was caused by the fact that Moldova signed, in 2014, the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union. Igor Dodon also says that the 200-million-euro loan agreement signed with the Russian Federation was cancelled by the Constitutional Court in Chisinau at the request of the pro-European parties. According to him, Russia is ready to continue negotiations for granting this loan, under the same conditions, when the political situation in Moldova has stabilized.

NARRATIVES: 1. Moldova will be swallowed up by the West and used against Russia. 2. Moldova will not survive without Russia's support; 3. Maia Sandu is influenced by Americans and Europeans; 4. The volume of Moldovan exports to the Russian market decreased due to the fact that Moldova signed the Free Trade Agreement with the EU; 5. The Constitutional Court canceled the loan granted by the Russian Federation at the behest of pro-European forces.

CONTEXT: The narratives used by Igor Dodon regarding the attacks on the independence of the Republic of Moldova, the interference of Americans and Europeans who want to take control of the Chisinau politics, the need to save the country, are the main campaign themes of the Socialists and Communists, who have joined forces and formed an electoral bloc. They are supported by the Kremlin, and the Russian press regularly reflects information about the PSRM-PCRM bloc.

Igor Dodon, the leader of the PSRM, is a pro-Russian, “statist” and “Moldovenist” politician. According to the investigative press, it looks like the former president of the Republic of Moldova has been collaborating with the Russian special services. Journalists from RISE Moldova, in cooperation with the Dossier Center , wrote that he even used a code name - Kremlinovici. During last year’s presidential campaign, Igor Dodon was supported by the Russian Federation, including financially, through various schemes. The Socialist leader is advocating for a closer rapprochement with Moscow and accession to the Eurasian Union, and his brother is doing business in the Russian Federation. The only official visits he paid during his term as president were to Moscow. Igor Dodon has been involved in corruption schemes denounced by his main rival in last year's presidential campaign, Maia Sandu, a pro-European politician who won the November 2020 presidential race.

After the disintegration of the USSR, Russia tried to keep the former Soviet republics within its sphere of influence, through various methods - from corrupting politicians, supporting political parties and dominating the information space, to starting armed conflicts and maintaining separatist enclaves. These methods are applied in the Republic of Moldova as well, in addition to economic and energy blackmail. Kremlin-affiliated Moldovan politicians have kept repeating, over the 30 years of independence, that the Republic of Moldova cannot exist without Russian support, referring to the energy dependence on the Russian Federation or to exports, which until recently went mainly to the Russian market.

The Russian Federation had been an important market for Moldovan products since the USSR, but lost share due to the fact that the Russian authorities used economic relations as a political weapon in an attempt to dictate Chisinau's foreign policy and to hinder Moldova's rapprochement with the EU (2013). Moscow used this method of economic and energy blackmail in 2006, when it stopped gas supplies and then doubled the price for the Republic of Moldova or banned Moldovan wines after the communist government in Chisinau shifted its foreign policy orientation towards the European Union.

PURPOSE: The narratives seek to discredit the pro-European parties in the context of the election campaign, as well as the Western development partners of the Republic of Moldova, against the background of a growing support from the population for the country’s European aspirations. Such geopolitical messages aim to distract the electorate from the real issues facing the Republic of Moldova: poverty, corruption, the economic situation, the pandemic, etc. At the same time, Russia is presented as the main partner and friend of Moldova.

WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: No EU state has ever threatened the independence of the Republic of Moldova. On the other hand, Russian troops are illegally stationed on the territory of Moldova. Chisinau’s Western partners have not conditioned the Moldova-EU relations on a confrontation with the Russian Federation. However, the support and consistent financial assistance provided by the EU to Moldova are conditional on the reform of key areas, especially concerning the justice system, the fight against corruption, respect for human rights, and democratization of institutions for the benefit of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova. These goals are also promoted by President Maia Sandu, who is supported in this regard by the EU and the USA. They are not items on a geopolitical agenda but aimed at reforming from within the governing system and the political class.

As for the Moldovan exports to the Russian Federation, they decreased significantly since 2014, from over 630 million dollars in 2013 to 216 million dollars in 2020 (8.7%), but not due to the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU, but because of the embargo on Moldovan products introduced by the Kremlin in reaction to Chisinau's European aspirations. Against this background, Moldovan producers had to look for other destinations for their products, and for many years the European Union has become the main market for Moldovan products and a predictable partner for Moldovan entrepreneurs. Exports of goods to European Union countries in January-November 2020 totaled 1520.5 million USD, accounting for 67.1% of the total exports, according to NBS data.

The loan of 200 million euros from the Russian Federation, negotiated by the Government, was indeed declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court in 2020, due to procedural violations, but also because some provisions would have been to the detriment of the Republic of Moldova, such as the one regarding the inclusion in the state debt of the arrears of some economic agents. Experts were most concerned about the risk that the debts of the Tiraspol regime for gas consumed in the Transnistrian region, of 6.5 billion USD, would be included in the Republic of Moldova’s debt.