Bosnia and Herzegovina will start EU accession negotiations 30 years after the end of the civil war. The country has made little progress since, and the Serbs – backed by the Russians – are threatening secession.
Russia has been trying for years to keep a foothold in the Western Balkans, especially through its connections with Serbia and Serb groups in the region. The war in Ukraine may now push Moscow’s allies closely in the Western camp.
The Western Balkans appear to be playing an increasingly important role in Russia's plans. Through its leverage in the region, Moscow is able to generate enough problems that require the attention of the West and diminish its ability to manage crises elsewhere - for example in the former Soviet Union.