The power shift has so far unfolded without any major incident or scandal, and the key protagonists – the outgoing Prime Minister, Natalia Gavrilița, the Prime Minister designate, Dorin Recean, and president Maia Sandu – said that the change of administration occurs against the backdrop of growing security tensions. There are however signs that the true reasons behind the Cabinet swap have to do with the slow pace of reforms and ruling-party infighting.
Estonia is gearing up for general elections, which are scheduled in March. This year, they will come against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the problems brought by the war throughout the region. Thus, security and energy are bound to be the main topics of the electoral campaign. Also because of the war, it is highly unlikely that any significant party will raise the questions of improving relations with Moscow as a way of courting Estonia’s Russian minority.
Hungary has a “preferential” contract for its gas imports from Russia, but has now ended up paying more than other European states. Prices for fuel and Diesel have skyrocketed, and inflation has hit the highest mark at EU level. Besides, Budapest’s bypassing European regulations and values has prompted the European Commission to freeze €7 billion worth of EU funds to Hungary. All that spirals into an economic crisis generated, for its most part, by Viktor Orbán’s policies.
The EU will go into recession because of Ukraine and will hardly survive the harsh winters, according to Russian media propaganda narratives that intentionally misquote the IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. In reality, she encouraged the Western states’ aspiration towards energy independence, stating that the EU risks going into recession due to the Russian aggression, but also other factors.
In recent years, Turkey has increasingly tried to project its power outside its borders, be it the Mediterranean Sea, with Cyprus and Libya as key pieces in Ankara's policy, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, or the Caucasus. To achieve its goal, Ankara has relied on aggressive diplomacy, its defense industry and its military. This policy will continue in 2023 and its big stakes are Northern Cyprus and energy.
According to the Russian state media, Ukraine is selling electricity to the Republic of Moldova, and the country's leadership is getting rich, while Ukrainians are left to live in cold and darkness. In reality, Kyiv stopped exports on October 11, after the first phase of missile attacks, and the Republic of Moldova is supported during this crisis by Romania.
The Government in the Republic of Moldova has been accused of having given in, once again, to the blackmail of Russia and Transnistria when it accepted to deliver all Russian gas imports to Tiraspol in exchange for electricity. As a matter of fact, for the time being Chișinău authorities don’t have too many alternatives at their disposal in terms of electricity and natural gas supplies, and any projects already launched with a view to diversifying Moldova’s energy sources need time to be implemented.
The authorities in Chisinau are reselling to the EU, at higher prices, part of the natural gas supplied by Gazprom, according to a false narrative in the Russian media. In reality, Chisinau supplies Transnistria with all the gas it currently buys from Gazprom and uses other sources for the consumers on the right bank of the Dniester.
The latest developments in Chisinau suggest that the Republic of Moldova seems to have become the target of a hybrid war launched by the Russian Federation to topple the current pro-European power and bring that state back into Moscow's sphere of influence. The authorities in Chisinau are forced to face an unprecedented energy crisis, successive increases in the prices of the most important products and services, but also protests organized by parties believed to be backed by the secret services in Moscow. Adding to these challenges is the deepening security crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine, particularly the missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in recent weeks.
Romania will run out of electricity supplies this winter, because the government passed a decree whereby the entire energy output of the country’s state-owned electricity providers will be transferred to the Republic of Moldova, according to a false narrative launched in the context of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, Bucharest authorities never passed such a decree, while both providers have standing contracts with the state that need to be honored.
The Republic of Moldova steals the gas destined for Transnistria and sells it to Ukraine at the market price, claims the press in Tiraspol, although the authorities in Chisinau are procuring gas from other markets, as Gazprom has limited supplies.
In the first half of 2022, Turkey seemed to be trying to tone down its aggressive policies in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Yet all these efforts were but a ruse. In fact, Ankara never renounced key elements underlying its aggressive strategy. It has recently actually dialed up its aggression in relations with Tripoli, which can further deteriorate the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
Serbia has been, for years, Russia’s closest ally in the Balkans. For Moscow, the relationship is a means to project an image of power and international relevance. Belgrade, on the other hand, plays the pro-Russian card to show that it has an alternative to a West that bruised its ego during the Kosovo war, but also for some pragmatic reasons, such as Russia’s support in the UN Security Council and its role as an energy provider. Belgrade’s real interests lie, however, with the EU, and the war in Ukraine may bring about a change – albeit a slow one – in its relationship with Russia.
The most valuable Romanian company with state capital, Hidroelectrica, will be sold to foreigners, on the London Stock Exchange, according to a false narrative promoted by the controversial senator Diana Șoșoacă. In reality, the company will only be listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, and only the 19.94% owned by Fondul Proprietatea will be sold.
European Union Member States will abandon Ukraine ahead of the cold season lest Russia should suspend its gas deliveries and for fear of a nuclear threat coming from Moscow. To justify their decision, EU countries will play host to a number of protests with the help of the secret services.
Russia is not to blame for the global rise in energy prices, it is the fault of an increasingly greedy Europe that has created “energy bubbles”. This false narrative, promoted in an online publication in Romania, repeats Russian propaganda and ignores Moscow's actions that actually led to the current situation.
The Republic of Moldova could face a number of serious challenges this autumn, given that Russia wants to bring this country back into its orbit. At domestic level, Moscow is expected to use any leverage it has in the separatist region of Transnistria and in Găgăuzia. Adding to these pressure points will be the country’s energy concerns.
Romania, just like the other European countries, will suffer terribly because of the gas price and Russia's decision to partially halt gas supplies to Europe, but this is only the fault of the European leaders, who punished Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine. The false narrative ignores the fact that Russia needs the Europeans’ money, and the latter have taken steps to avoid a major energy crisis.
The war in Ukraine brought back into focus an issue that had been known for a long time: Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. First, the possibility of European sanctions was raised, then Moscow reduced supplies, which caused panic in some Western capitals. What can Europeans do to escape Russian blackmail and how much should they fear the coming winter?
The Transnistrian is not an obstacle to the EU integration of Chișinău, says the ambassador the Republic of Moldova in Romania, Victor Chirilă. In an interview to Veridica, the Moldovan diplomat said that, should Ukraine win the war against Russia, Tiraspol leaders will become “more flexible”. Victor Chirilă analyzed the security risks for Chișinău, as well as the main projects carried out by the Republic of Moldova jointly with Romania.
Europe’s reliance on large energy imports from Russia prevents the adoption of sanctions meant to deprive Moscow of sizable revenues, which it can use to feed its war machine. The West is looking for replacements, but unfortunately these are more often than not “smaller Russias” – authoritarian regimes that also stand accused of violating human rights.
Against the backdrop of a worsening economic crisis, Turkey is trying to reconnect with its former allies, after years of pushing them away with its aggresive rhetoric and policies. However, Ankara must also take into account its relationship with Russia, given that it is dependent on that country for energy, agricultural products, tourism and trade.
“A major power outage, which could last up to two weeks, is imminent in the European Union”, according to part of the Romanian media, referring to an alleged warning from the Austrian defense minister. In fact, the Austrian army only considers the possibility of a power outage as part of its crisis prevention program and has launched an information campaign for the population that is not at all unusual”.
Ukraine wants to become an energy powerhouse at the Dniester, but this is affecting Moldova's water reserves and may even affect Romania