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(Pro-Russian) candidates in the presidential election in the Republic of Moldova campaign by spreading panicky messages, arguing, among other things, that the Romanian army will cross the Prut River or that Moldova will go to war.
A ballot with unprecedented stakes amidst the attack on Ukraine and the Russian hybrid war against Moldova
Elections in the Republic of Moldova have always carried significant geopolitical importance. Over three decades after the collapse of the USSR, with every new round of election (even in local elections) the population is forced to choose between the development vectors of the country, looking either westwards or eastwards, between the European or the Russian model. The political class, essentially representing pro-Russian or pro-Western parties instead of clearly defined development programs, has been manipulating society during these years, fueling sensitive topics such as the official state language (Romanian or Moldovan), cheaper gas from Russia, etc.
The candidates for the October 20 presidential election generally fit this pattern, always positioning themselves in favor of/against one of the two lines of development. The stakes this autumn are much higher than usual, considering this round of election will be accompanied by a referendum on the integration of the Republic of Moldova into the European Union. Basically, the population will have to decide, this time for good, where they want their country to be. A decision in favor of European accession would basically put an end to the perpetual oscillation between East and West in election cycles, depending on the victor.
Another aspect that makes this autumn's election special is the unusual regional context for the last 30 years, with a war of aggression launched by Russia on the neighboring state of Ukraine, in the immediate vicinity of the Republic of Moldova, and with obvious Russian expansionist claims. At the same time, the Kremlin is waging an extensive hybrid war against Chișinău, which, like Kyiv, has chosen to join the EU. The hybrid war has manifested itself in recent years through energy blackmail, disinformation campaigns, destabilization attempts through various agents of influence, interference in electoral process, including by buying off votes. Moldovan Authorities even denounced a Russian plan to stage a coup in Chișinău with the help of mercenaries from Russia, Belarus, Serbia and Montenegro.
Disinformation campaigns are a key component of this hybrid war, being around long before. False narratives spread in the form of news, disinformation, propaganda, statements by political actors, historical myths and false identities, etc., are commonplace in the Republic of Moldova throughout its history, and the phenomenon has been amplified in recent years. The main themes of this far-reaching informational campaign concern so-called threats to the identity and even the existence of Moldova and Moldovans. The messages promoted directly by Moscow or by politicians/public figures/pro-Russian media in Chișinău argue that Moldova risks being dragged into the war, losing its independence, facing economic collapse and Moldovans becoming slaves of the West, losing their Christian identity and moral fiber based on traditional and family values. According to the false narratives, these threats are posed by the European Union, NATO, Romania, “Sorosist” civil society, LGBT “agenda”, etc.
In recent years, Veridica has dismantled hundreds of fake news and disinformation narratives based on such themes. They are continuously circulated in the context of the election campaign and efforts to block the European path of the Republic of Moldova.
The Kremlin is relying on pro-Russian parties this time, also using certain candidates/agents to promote messages against the European integration efforts of the Republic of Moldova.
The main narratives we identify in the rhetoric of such candidates are the following: arming the Republic of Moldova, dragging the country into the war against Russia, collaborating with NATO at the expense of neutrality, conceding sovereignty and state assets to the West. These narratives persistently permeate the statements of pro-Russian politicians.
Romania, the pro-Russians favorite scare tactic: “the Romanian army will cross the Prut!”
The former governor of the Găgăuzia autonomous region, Irina Vlah, who announced her intention to run for the presidency of the Republic of Moldova, demanded assurances from the president of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, “that, regardless of certain statements that have recently been circulated more and more, the Romanian army will not cross the Prut, and the citizens of the Republic of Moldova have nothing to worry about from this point of view”. In an open letter addressed to the president of Romania, Irina Vlah refers to the new National Defense Law of Romania, which would allow the Romanian army to invade Moldova under the pretext of defending its own citizens.
The draft law in question was debated in Romania at the beginning of April and immediately generated a wave of Russian disinformation narratives, all of which promoted the idea that Bucharest was preparing to send troops across the Prut. In turn, these narratives referenced ideas inoculated for decades by Soviet propaganda regarding Romania's (fascist) aggressiveness and its “expansionist” drive. This type of rhetoric is based on the theses about the existence of two different peoples, Moldovans and Romanians, and describes the periods when the territory between the Prut and the Dniester was part of Romania as periods of military occupation. These meta-narratives were persistently promoted by pro-Russian forces, even after the proclamation of the independence of the Republic of Moldova, despite the fact that Romania was the first country to officially recognize its independence and never issued territorial claims on Moldova.
Russia does not pose a military threat to the Republic of Moldova, but Romania can deploy its troops in Chișinău, strictly hypothetically, which will lead to the loss of sovereignty, another candidate in the Moldovan presidential race said (in a statement in Russia, just like Irina Vlah’s). Natalia Morari made a name for herself as a journalist who claimed, very vocally and persistently, to be independent: “In theory, we have three possible enemies: the neighboring states Ukraine and Romania, and of course Russia. It's just a hypothetical scenario. […] Let's analyze the threat from Russia and the fear that it could reach Odesa and advance further beyond. Pentagon representatives and other senior US military officials have reassured us there is no direct military threat to Moldova at this time. Considering the developments on the Ukrainian-Russian front, and even if the Russian troops did advance, they would only do so a few hundred meters a day, meaning they would reach Odesa in over 40 years. According to the analyses of military experts, it would take over 40 years to get here. Thus, as stated by our Western partners, including NATO, there is no imminent military threat to the Republic of Moldova. What makes the advance of Russian forces towards our border really dangerous, which, I repeat, is a strictly hypothetical scenario, is the fact that, by the time the Russians reach Odesa, our leadership will convene the Parliament one evening, invite Romania to deploy its troops, which by morning will be in Chișinău. Will this be “unification”, or a similar move? At any rate, Moldova will lose its sovereignty as a result. As one Caucasian proverb goes, “the sheep always feared the wolf, but the shepherd ate them”. We can already see the signs of such a scenario developing in the changing legislation in Romania, which allows state authorities to intervene in order to defend its citizens abroad. And Maia Sandu, Igor Grosu and Dorin Recean are the most important Romanian citizens across the border that need defending”.
It should be noted that Natalia Morari has been promoted online by the wanted oligarch Veaceslav Platon, who fled from the Republic of Moldova to avoid a prison sentence.
Warnings issued with the blessing of the Transnistrian KGB: “Tomorrow, there will be war!”
In another statement, Irina Vlah asks the future Secretary General of NATO to give “an official statement recognizing the neutrality of the Republic of Moldova” (something which NATO has always recognized), without saying, however, that the neutrality of the Republic of Moldova is in fact violated by Russia, which illegally stations forces on the country's territory. On the other hand, NATO has always recognized the neutrality of the Republic of Moldova. In the same open letter, Irina Vlah further reiterates the thesis about Moldova's preparation for war against Russia, which has also been promoted by Moscow's propaganda since the war in Ukraine broke out.
Tomorrow, there will be war! warns VICTORIA FURTUNĂ, a candidate in the presidential race who served as a prosecutor of the Anticorruption Prosecutor's Office:
“Maia Sandu's second presidential term will start with a war, the opening of the second front in Transnistria. A war against peace is now actively being planned. All the foreign aid Moldova has received over the last couple of years in terms of money, personnel, weapons, military equipment, was just a preparation for the events of the coming autumn... Tomorrow, there will be war. Are we prepared to see our sons and daughters pick up the military uniform and to send them away to their death?”
Furtună made this statement in front of the monument to Suvorov in Tiraspol. Journalists from the Zona de Securitate project point out that “all these narratives were uttered just a few hundred meters away from the military base of the Russian Troops Task Force that is stationed illegally in the Republic of Moldova. Moreover, Furtună recorded this video with the consent and in the presence of employees of the so-called alleged Ministry of Security from Tiraspol, which according to the law is considered an illegal intelligence agency. Suvorov Square, where the video was filmed, is patrolled around the clock by representatives of the Transnistrian KGB dressed in plainclothes, and the Transnistrian militia patrols the perimeter wearing their specific uniforms”, journalists with Zona de Securitate, a publication specializing in the Transnistrian conflict, explain.
The pro-European government uses war to scare the population
Pro-Russian warnings about the Republic of Moldova’s imminent involvement in the war are accompanied by accusations that, in fact, the government wants to scare the population with the threat of starting a war in order to advance its political agenda.
“Maia Sandu's administration is an one of rhetoric and hysteria whose central point is war and arming. If you take the topic of the war in Ukraine from the communication arsenal of the authorities, you will see that they have nothing left to say to the population. Everyone is tired of this screaming and this hysteria. At the same time, Moldova can become a much safer place if it simply follows the will and wisdom of the majority of peaceful people. The less people are eager to light a match in Europe, the faster peace will come to the region”, the candidate of the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, the former general prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, told an interview for the Tribuna portal,
The thesis is also promoted by Natalia Morari: “Judging by the declarations of the representatives of NATO, the USA, Romania, namely that from a military point of view there is currently no threat, it is more difficult for Maia Sandu's PR experts to promote the threat of war and the Russian approach to our borders. That's why the PR experts, have invented a new scare they will most likely use extensively to induce hysteria across society. Finally, brainwashing and panic. I must state that the feeling of fear in the face of danger is the strongest feeling of the human unconscious that completely blocks rational thinking. Any expert in political technology will tell you that a frightened man is capable of anything, willing to cope with shortages and any circumstances, and take any action, just to avoid danger. The essence of these political strategies consists in creating a false threat, a climate of fear. If any other candidate than Maia Sandu were to win, he would necessarily be pro-Kremlin and would receive a personal order from Putin to start a war against Ukraine”.
Pro-Europeans are selling their country to foreigners
Vasile Tarlev served as Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova during the Vladimir Voronin’s term as president. Since then, he has constantly aspired to hold state office, but has never managed to convince relevant politicians or voters of his capabilities. Tarlev now eyes the presidency and is trying to win over the electorate with a narrative spread by ex-communists and populists in Eastern Europe in the 90s, claiming authorities want to sell the country to the West. Vasile Tarlev came with a veritable wave of messages regarding the sale of strategic objectives such as the Airport, Giurgiulești Port or electricity networks, with the aim of eliminating the Moldovan state. In another message, Tarlev talks about emblematic buildings in Chișinău, such as the House of the Press and the Palace of the Republic. He also brings up NATO (obviously a reference to Moldova renouncing neutrality), stating that the premises of the Agrarian University will be transferred to NATO.
Tiraspol’s candidate, Victoria Furtună, also promotes the narrative about selling the country's assets to foreigners.
Moldovans know best the name of language they speak: Moldovan
In 2023, the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova adopted a law by means of which the Romanian language became the official language of Moldova. Parliament thereby implemented a ruling of the Constitutional Court on this matter, which, in turn, showed that the Romanian language had been proclaimed the official language under the Declaration of Independence of the Republic of Moldova. The fact that the official language of the population between the Prut and Dniester is Romanian is a simple linguistic fact. However, for decades, the Soviets had promoted the false myth about the existence of the Moldovan language, different from the Romanian language and spoken by an ethnic group also invented by the Soviets – Moldovans. That theory continued to be promoted, after the the Republic of Moldova proclaimed its independence from Russia, by the Russian-speaking minorities in the Republic of Moldova and by pro-Russian political parties in Chișinău.
One such example is the Party of Socialists, whose leader, Igor Dodon, repeatedly referred to the Moldovan language. The party's candidate for the presidential elections, Alexandr Stoianoglu, also brought up the topic, although with a slightly different interpretation. In the Tribuna interview mentioned above, Staianoglo said that “from a philological point of view, no one can deny this is one language. Everyone agrees with that. And it would be stupid to deny that. But as far as the name is concerned, this is not a philological question. There are quite a few cases where identical languages in different countries are named differently. In this case, the right to the final opinion always belongs to the majority of people, it belongs to the people, the way they identify themselves. The people, not the academics, are always right in this case. If the majority of the population of our country considers their language to be Moldovan and want to enshrine that in the legislation, then so be it”.
In turn, the candidate supported by the wanted oligarch Veaceslav Platon, Natalia Morari, supports the thesis that the population must choose the name of the language: “Part of us call it Romanian Language Day. The other part believes that the language is Moldovan. United, together, we are the people of the Republic of Moldova, and language is the strongest marker of our unity. Because we are a people, and only united we are strong. It is necessary to give ourselves the right to choose a name for our language”.
