China is the top of America’s concerns, considering the ongoing trade war and Beijing’s bold moves in an area where the United States has strategic interests and close allies. After holding its first exploratory talks with Russia, European allies and the Middle East, in March the White House set its gaze on China and dispatched two of its heavy-duty emissaries to this region.
Asia, the first destination for Biden’s heavyweights
The first external visits for some of Biden’s high-ranking officials were made to the Asia-Pacific region. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, went to Tokyo and Seoul. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, began his tour with a first stopover in Hawaii, where the United States Indo-Pacific Command is headquartered (an enormous military force, comprising hundreds of thousands of soldiers, 200 battleships, 2,500 aircraft, etc.). He subsequently joined Blinken in Japan and Korea, and from there he traveled to India.
This was not a courtesy visit to the capitals of some of the USA’s important regional allies. World leaders have stopped making such visits throughout the pandemic. Videoconferences are now the norm for the formal exchange of pleasantries. Blinken and Austin were entrusted with sending out a message to the disruptive state in the region, China, and their presence on the ground would add significant weight. The two published their message in a joint op-ed in Washington Post: Beijing should be aware the United States won’t be leaving the region or abandoning its allies there. With the support of its allies, Washington will push back against China’s aggressions and threats and “will hold China accountable when it abuses human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet, systematically erodes autonomy in Hong Kong, undercuts democracy in Taiwan or asserts maritime claims in the South China Sea that violate international law”.
The first signals sent out by the new White House administration at the outset of its mandate – the first decisions, visits, phone calls, etc. – are important. As regards the new White House leader, Biden’s first foreign policy decision came on the very day of his inauguration, and it concerned bringing the United States back into the Paris climate Agreement. The first international event Joe Biden (virtually) attended in his new role as president was the Munich Security Conference, where he repeatedly assured Washington’s European allies that “America is back!”
In his first conversation with Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden brought forward all the problematic files: “Ukraine, the SolarWinds cyber-attack, the rewards offered by the Russians for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan, the interference in the 2020 elections, the poisoning of Alexei Navalny”. Biden warned Putin the United States would take firm action to defend its national interests and would respond to any of Russia’s actions targeting its allies.
Finally, these first steps in the Middle East have signaled a change of attitude compared to the Trump era: the new administration distanced itself from the trouble-making Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (and withdrew its support for Riyadh’s military intervention in Yemen) and expressed restraint in relations with Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. The United States’ unconditional support to MBS and Bibi, based on their private relations with Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was now cut off. Among other things, this means the United States is willing to resume negotiations with Iran and return to the nuclear agreement, although not under any circumstances. It’s worth noting that Biden’s step back from the two leaders will not necessarily wane relations with the two countries, which remain key allies of Washington, each for different reasons.
After Europe, Russia and the East, it is now China’s turn.
The only country capable of undercutting global order
The first major official signal, which spoke of Biden’s intentions regarding China, came from the guidelines on the National Security Strategy, which the White House published on March 3. The word China (or Beijing) is mentioned 18 times, a lot more than Russia, Iran and North Korea combined. From Washington’s standpoint, China is the only country capable of undercutting global order, using all economic, diplomatic, military and technological means at its disposal. The Strategy also contains a clear warning: “when the Chinese government’s behavior directly threatens our interests and values, we will answer Beijing’s challenge”, and the United States will help China’s neighbors and trade partners defend their rights.
The said Strategy also expresses the American side’s willingness to engage in a meaningful dialogue with China, but doesn’t foresee any immediate overturn of policy compared to the Trump era, which was the case with other policies. And this means, first and foremost, that, at least for now, the trade war between the United States and China will continue, a war Donald Trump set off in 2018, when he started placing tariffs on Chinese imports that, over time, reached billions of dollars in worth. China retaliated with tariffs of its own, and negotiations between the two parties and the agreement on reducing some of the tariffs didn’t slow down economic “hostilities”. Moreover, a report outlining the United States’ trade agenda, published by Biden’s staff on March 1, virtually rehashed all the grievances the Trump administration had expressed when trying to justify the introduction of tariffs: technology and copyright thefts, unfair trade practices, subsidizing certain American trade sectors to gain a competitive edge, etc.
All of Beijing’s practices are telling of an aggressive economic policy, designed to give China the upper hand at any cost and consolidate its status of economic superpower, at times to the detriment of other states. Economy is actually a tool serving China’s global domination ambitions. These become further manifest when looking at China’s expansions abroad, especially in Africa, where China tends to become the dominant external power by handing out loans to African nations (not necessarily at advantageous rates), conducting trade exchanges and making investments. Let’s not forget China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which lies at the heart of Xi Jinping’s foreign policy.
Economic prowess is but one of the instruments that are supposed to showcase China’s power abroad. Beijing also pays special attention to another instrument, which is typically used by empires thirsting for expansion: the army.
A new army for a new China
This year, the Chinese navy became the world's largest, as Beijing tripled the size of its fleet in the last two decades. And naval shipyards have been working around the clock, the number of new ships continuing to rise. Yet numbers alone won’t cut it. The United States still has the technological and qualitative upper hand. It not only has carriers and nuclear submarines, but also an air fleet capable to provide support to its navy and maritime arsenal.
China’s huge fleet speaks volumes about Beijing’s ambitions, but it also pinpoints its limitations. China knows that, to become a global power, it needs to rely on a formidable naval force. It’s the old “whoever rules the waves, rules the world” dictum, but China has still a long way to go. For the time being, Beijing cannot but aspire to the status of superpower in its territorial waters, where it pursues a number of strategic objectives: Taiwan, the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Taiwan currently enjoys the protection of the United States, which sends its warships on periodic patrols in the area. Besides, it has its own significant forces. Any attempt from China at recapturing Taiwan – which it officially regards as a rebel province that must one day be brought back into the fold – depends on its ability to secure the seas surrounding the island. This means the Chinese fleet and aviation will have to be strong enough to keep the Americans away, neutralize Taiwan’s defenses and be able to transport enough land forces beyond the Taiwan Strait.
China has ongoing disputes with Japan and South Korea over the extent of their exclusive economic zones in the East China Sea, both countries being allies of the United States with sizable and well-equipped fleets.
The South China Sea, an area rich in minerals and transited by a significant part of global naval traffic, is one of the most complicated regions in China’s vicinity. It’s no accident Blinken and Austin mentioned the South China Sea in their shared op-ed. The sea is the stage of disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan (the situation in the region is far more complex, involving a number of other actors) and is engaged in a long-standing process of consolidating its military presence by building artificial islands to serve as military bases. It’s an area where China is regularly conducting military exercises and has been developing an arsenal of anti-ship ballistic missiles capable of keeping the American fleet at a safe distance. In turn, the United States responds by deploying maritime and air patrols in the area on a regular basis, which further incites China to strengthen its military navy.
Of course, China’s efforts to modernize and equip its armed forces are not limited to its navy – there are significant investments in land forces, and particularly in air forces, which include a few dozen 5th-generation Chengdu J-20 aircraft. The number of fighter jets is significantly lower than the few hundred jets with similar technology under US command. Performance-wise, it’s difficult to compare the two air fleets, considering the specs for many of these aircraft are kept confidential, but it’s safe to say the American fighter jets, the F-22s at least, are vastly superior.
America is not going anywhere
It’s highly unlikely to witness an armed conflict between China and the United States in the future, in spite of the recent arms race picking up speed and both sides displaying a significant show of force. There’s no reason for anyone to look for an escalation with potentially devastating effects on the whole world.
As regards the trade war, both countries want it to stop, simply because there’s just too much money at stake. Nevertheless, relations must clearly be brought on a more equitable footing, and those who should eventually give in are the Chinese. After all, it’s a problem that goes well beyond China-US relations. It’s rather about China’s relations with the West in general, which has too often turned a blind eye for the sake of economic benefits whenever Beijing didn’t play by the rules. At the end of the day, China remains a dictatorship, capable of committing atrocities against its own people, which may well be defined as genocide. The drama experienced by Uyghur ethnics in China is just a recent example, least of all the only one. You cannot concurrently hope to inspire confidence at global level and sweep a genocide under the mat back home.
Xinjiang, in addition to Hong Kong and Tibet, are brought up in the United States Security Strategy, and are equally referenced by Blinken and Austin. The first steps of the Biden administration have confirmed the United States is unwilling to wipe the slate clean for the sake of a “new beginning”. The direction of American-Chinese relations over the next four years remains unclear.
For now, these were just the first signals. Whereas Joe Biden told Europeans “America is back”, to China the message seems to be “America is not going anywhere”.
Further reading: The first Biden – Putin talk: a “privet” like a “niet”
The “new” America in the old Middle East
