Withdrawing the Russian peacekeeping force may lead to war breaking out in Transnistria, reads an article published by the «Независимое Приднестровье» (Independent Transnistria) news portal and also carried by Moldovan media. The article suggests that, in the event of a new conflict, where Russian troops are replaced with UN and OSCE forces, Moscow may no longer stay neutral.
NEWS: “If we don’t have peacekeepers, their place will be taken by military forces representing the parties involved in the conflict. It’s highly unlikely the UN and OSCE white Humvees will be able to take on the armored divisions of both parties that will be headed to the security zone”.
Following the same logic, the article titled “What will happen if helmets are thrown off”, mentions that Russia might be fortifying its military presence in the region and even take on an active role in the conflict. “Under Article 4, the Russian side guarantees the neutrality (of its military forces deployed in the region, e.n.) Moreover, it was said the army would be evacuated in stages. And it was. Only a small military contingent was left behind. By nullifying this agreement, Moldova accepts that Russia has a right to deploy a fully-fledged army here, one that won’t remain neutral in case of a reescalation of the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria”.
NARRATIVE: The transformation of the peacekeeping mission on the Dniester, as requested by Chișinău, would create a new military conflict in Transnistria and increase the Russian military presence in the region.
BACKGROUND: The armed conflict that broke out in Transnistria in 1992 was frozen under the Agreement on the peaceful resolution of the armed conflict in the breakaway region of Transnistria signed at the time by the presidents of the Republic of Moldova, Mircea Snegur, and of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin. The document stipulates measures to ensure the security alongside the Dniester, including by creating a peacekeeping mission, demilitarizing the conflict zone and creating a Joint Control Commission.
The peacekeeping mission is made up of military from the Republic of Moldova, a Transnistrian force, a Russian military contingent and Ukrainian military observers. For over 15 years, authorities in Chișinău have been calling for turning the military mission into a civilian one under international coordination, but Moscow and Tiraspol have said no. At the same time, Russia has deployed a military unit in the region, the successor of the 14th Soviet Army that fought on the separatists’ side in the conflict. The unit’s official mission is to guard the weapons depot at Cobasna. Russia had promised it would free the depot and pull back from the area, but it has not delivered on its commitments. So far, every effort undertaken by Chișinău to withdraw its armed forces from the territory of the Republic of Moldova has been interpreted by Moscow and Tiraspol as an attempt to destroy the peacekeeping mission, although it has nothing to do with it.
PURPOSE: To prevent a change in the peacekeeping mission in Transnistria and legitimize the presence of Russian military forces in the region.
WHY THE NARRATIVE IS FALSE: First of all, the article sets out on the false premise that changing the peacekeeping mission would represent a breach of the Agreement signed on July 21, 1992. The said agreement was amended once in 1998, by means of a document signed in Odessa. In fact, experts claim that this is actually evidence that the 1992 Agreement is outmoded and in fact hampers the resolution of the conflict in Transnistria.
The mission has been often criticized for its ineffectiveness, but also for more serious incidents, such as a young man being shot dead by a Russian peacekeeper in 2012.
Irrespective of the status of Russian armed forces in Transnistria, their involvement in a potential conflict between Chișinău and Tiraspol would be a serious breach of international law. On the other hand, the veiled threats inserted in the article, according to which Russia could boost its military presence in the region, seem more like a bluff, also because for that, Russa would have to move across the airspace, land and national waters of Ukraine or Romania in order to reach Moldova.
GRAIN OF TRUTH: The 1992 ceasefire Agreement provides for a peacekeeping mission in Transnistria.
WHO STANDS TO BENEFIT: Moscow and Tiraspol, by sanctioning Russia’s military presence in Transnistria and preserving the peacekeeping mission which Russia de facto controls.
